الفوركس المتاجرة نظام 96 في المئة الفائزين ، و النائحين

وبصرف النظر عن الأسباب الواضحة لارتفاع الأجور والفرص، اسمحوا لي أن أضيف بضع نقاط أخرى، نقلا عن أمثلة من الناس الذين هاجروا بالفعل من الهند. من هو - فينكاترامان راماكريشنان ما حققه - منح جائزة نوبل في الكيمياء لدراسات هيكل ووظيفة الريبوسوم. ما الذي كان يفعله لو أنه بقي في الهند - ربما يكون باحثا في معهد مركزي، ولكن لن يكون قد حصل على أبحاثه الممولة لأنه كيميائي وريبوسوم هو موضوع علم الأحياء. من هو - V S نيبول ما أنجز - منح جائزة نوبل في الأدب. ما الذي كان يفعله كان بقي في الهند - تكافح من أجل نشر عمله. ربما كان أيضا سخرية وراء الظهر للمطالبة بأن أعماله بعيدا بكثير محل تلك التي تشيتان بهاغت. ما الذي أنجزه - منح جائزة نوبل في الطب لتفسير الشفرة الوراثية ووظيفتها في تخليق البروتين ماذا سيفعل إذا ظل في الهند - ربما أستاذا في إحدى جامعاتنا، وفحص النسخ العملية والشكوى حول النظام لعدم إعطاء أموال كافية لمشروع ما. من هو - أمارتيا سين ما أنجزه - منح جائزة نوبل في الاقتصاد لمساهماته في الاقتصاد الرعاية الاجتماعية. ما الذي كان سيبذله لو أنه بقي في الهند - هل جعل والديه فخورين للعمل في وظيفة حكومية مستقرة ودفعة جيدة كمحاسب في بنك. من هو - S شاندراسيخار ما الذي أنجزه - منح جائزة نوبل في الفيزياء كوفور دراساته النظرية للعمليات الفيزيائية ذات الأهمية لبنية وتطور النجوم ماذا يفعل انه بقي في الهند - أستاذ في جامعة ، وربما واحدة شعبية لأنه لا يمكن أن تحل فقط كل العددية ولكن يمكن أن أقول بالضبط أي كتاب كان عليه، أي فصل وحتى رقم الصفحة. باختصار، نحن لا تحصل على الفرص والبنية التحتية والمرونة في الهند بالمقارنة مع الغرب. أنا لا أعني أبدا أي عدم احترام لأي من الحائزين على الجائزة أو لبلدي، ما أريد أن أقوله هو أن هناك ربما مئات من أمارتيا سين و S شاندراسيخار هناك، الذين يضطرون يوميا لقتل أحلامهم والحصول على تسوية. بمجرد الذهاب إلى الغرب، كنت غير قادر على الضغط لمتابعة مسار للضرب. لا يشجعك على النظر إلى الأمور من منظور مختلف. ويتم تشجيع حياة مستقرة وآمنة. ويتعرضون للمخاطر. لذا فإن الناس الراغبين في تحمل المخاطر لا يترك لهم أي خيار آخر. ولكن وبصرف النظر عن واضح وأود أن وضع سبب واحد آخر - الاعتراف. نعم، في بعض الأحيان أن ثابا من الغرب يخلق تأثير أكثر من كل ما تبذلونه من الصفات، والتفاني الخاص بك وطبيعتك جيدة وضعت معا، حتى لأقرب منها. تذكر هذا الرجل بالطبع كنت تفعل. هل عرفته قبل عام 2018 عندما حصل على ثابا من نوبل واسنت كان يعمل بالفعل أرنت من المفترض أن نعرفه لأنه يعيش بيننا آري ثابا يار ثابا ولعل هذا هو السبب في نري لادكا هو مثل بدعة بين الآباء الطبقة الوسطى العليا تبحث عن عرائس لبناتهم. ننسى السيد ساتيارثي، هل تعرف هذا الرجل كلما أتحدث إلى شخص ما عن سوامي فيفيكاناندا، أول شيء ذكره الناس هو عنوان شيكاغو له. على محمل الجد من بين كل إسهامه في الفلسفة، الشيء الوحيد الذي يجد الناس جدير بالاهتمام هو عنوان للأميركيين. أنا متأكد من أنه كان هائلا، ولكن انظر، حتى سوامي فيفيكانانداس أكبر إنجاز هو له ثابا من الغرب. ننسى حتى له، تذكر هذا الرجل واحدة من أعظم رجل على المشي على الأرض. هل تعلم أن أساليبه كانت فريدة من نوعها وكان هو الذي جعلنا نضال الحرية القائم على كتلة وليس على النخب. ولكن هل تعرف أحد الأسباب التي تمكنه من اكتساب شعبية واسعة في صفوف الكونغرس، وذلك بعد عودته من أفريقيا مباشرة في عام 1915، كان إسهامه وعمله في أفريقيا. أنا متأكد من أن المهاتما غاندي كان شخصية عظيمة حتى من دون أوراق الاعتماد هذه. وقال إنه كان سيحقق في نهاية المطاف الاحترام والاعتراف الذي يستحقه. ولكن حتى بالنسبة له كان ثابا بمثابة منصة الإطلاق، حتى لو لم يكن من الغرب. أريد أن أقول أكثر أنا متأكد من أنك سوف تجد إجاباتي الأخرى الثاقبة كذلك. 12.4k المشاهدات ميدوت عرض أوبوتس نوت ميدوت ليس فور ريبرودكتيون السؤال نفسه واضح في القراءة الأولى، وقد تناوله الكثيرون بطول كاف بعدة طرق مختلفة ومع ذلك، فإن قراءة السؤال تبدو وكأنها تسأل عن مزيد من التبصر. ويرجع ذلك جزئيا إلى طبيعة هذا المنتدى، والتخمين من اسم الملصق، والتحيز من خلفيتي الشخصية لدي شعور بأن هذا هو السؤال الذي يطرحه الناطقين باللغة الإنجليزية ويسترنر - جوابي سوف يكون أمثلة من هذا التخمين و انحياز، نزعة. أنا، مهاجر من الهند يحمل الجنسية الأمريكية كان في رحلة عمل إلى سريلانكا تعمل لصالح شركة بريطانية، وكان يناقش مشروع جنوب أفريقيا. لماذا كان هذا يحدث - حسنا الخيط المشترك هنا هو أن كل هذا كان جزءا من الإمبراطورية البريطانية مرة واحدة لقد تم تعليمه في اللغة الإنجليزية مع التركيز على الرياضيات والعلوم - وذلك بفضل البريطانيين الذين أرادوا إعطاء الهنود الدينيين جرعة قوية من العلوم العلمانية - التي ترسخت في المناهج الهندية المستقلة بعد. الشركات التي كنت أتعامل فيها كانت كلها في قطاع تمويل رأس المال - الذي كان ركلة بدأت من قبل شركة الهند الشرقية - أول شركة بريطانية مملوكة للقطاع العام. التعبير عن القومية والاتصال بالإنترنت: أي شيء خاطئ مع القومية التي تمكن الفرد الذي يدافع عن هذا الجزء من هويتهم أما بالنسبة للقومية عبر الإنترنت - مواطنون من جميع الأمم لديها ذلك. يجب أن ترى قومية القوة العظمى أن الولايات المتحدة، خلال دورة الالعاب الاولمبية - العاب ان الامريكيين لا يأخذون ذلك بجدية مرة واحدة المترجمين على الانترنت تصبح جيدة بما فيه الكفاية (هناك شبه لائق واحد في صلب كروم بالفعل،) سوف تغرق في البؤس مرة واحدة تبدأ في رؤية القومية التي أعرب عنها الصينيون واليابانيين والفرنسيون والروس ومختلف الدول العربية - على سبيل المثال لا الحصر. كما أنه لا ينسى أن هذا هو منتدى اللغة الإنجليزية، والجزء من الإنترنت الوصول إليها من قبل هذا الجمهور هو إلى حد كبير الجزء باللغة الإنجليزية. إرثا من الإمبراطورية البريطانية - التي تضم المملكة المتحدة وأيرلندا وكندا والولايات المتحدة وأستراليا ونيوزيلندا وجنوب أفريقيا والهند وباكستان وبنغلاديش وسري لانكا ونيجيريا، وما إلى ذلك ترك (تلك الأراضي الأصلية): أما بالنسبة للخروج. العرض والطلب هو مونير جيد الذي يغطي (ويخفى) العديد من الحقائق من الناس الذين تركوا مكانهم الأصلي. يمكن سؤال هذه المسألة أي وافد أو مهاجر من أي مكان. لماذا يأخذ المواطن الأمريكي مهمة الوافدين - عندما تكون الولايات المتحدة قوة عظمى، وأغنى دولة في العالم ماذا عن إسكندنافي أو كندي مع واحدة من أكثر البلدان راحة في العالم لماذا بريتس - مرة أخرى بين أغنى - الحصول على جذب إلى وظائف في الخليج ماذا عن البريطانيين الذين جاءوا إلى الهند ماذا عن البرتغالية والفرنسية ماذا عن عدد لا يحصى من الأوروبيين الذين غادروا أوروبا للولايات المتحدة 200400 سنة مضت - ولا تزال تدعي بفخر أنها جاءت على مايفلور - عندما فإن الواقع هو أن معظمهم تعرضوا للاضطهاد بسبب معتقداتهم البيريتانية - وهو وضع أسوأ بكثير من الهنود الذين لديهم التعليم، والوسائل الاقتصادية لشراء تذاكرهم الجوية الخاصة لمغادرة الهند. ويأتي العديد منهم كطلبة أجانب ويدفعون حوالي 40،000 دولار أمريكي سنويا لتعليمهم، وهو مبلغ لا يستطيع معظم الأمريكيين والأوروبيين تحمله أو الحصول على قرض له. ماذا عن البريطانيين الذين غادروا إلى أستراليا لاحظوا أن أستراليا كانت مستعمرة جنائية. ماذا عن الهنود الذين أخذوا قسرا على أنهم عمال مؤهلين للمستعمرات البريطانية ماذا عن العبيد الأسود في العالم الجديد ماذا عن جميع العمال الآسيويين في الشرق الأوسط - العديد من الأفراد هذه الفئة هي التي دخلت إلى الأرض الأجنبية. ماذا عن كل الصليبيين الذين لم يعودوا إلى وطنهم تقريبا كل شيء مصنوع في الصين - والذي يتضمن اي فون الخاص بك مصممة في ولاية كاليفورنيا. ونسبة جيدة من تطوير تكنولوجيا المعلومات تتم في الهند. المنسوجات تأتي من جميع أنحاء العالم. أكثر المستهلكين إلحاحا في العالم هم الأمريكيون البترول من أوبك الولايات المتحدة واليابان وأوروبا والصين يعانون من شيخوخة السكان، ويتم توفير العمالة الماهرة من قبل أمثال أوروبا الشرقية والصين والهند. لذلك ما لم تكن عربيا يستغل هنديا، فإن الهندي يغادر إلى أرضك عامل ماهر لا تستطيع أرضك إنتاجه بسبب وضع الشيخوخة. إذا لم تكن قد قبلت حقيقة العولمة حتى الآن، ثم سوف يضربك عاجلا أم آجلا. وأخيرا السؤال الضمني - هو كل شيء حقا كل هذا هو هونكي-دوري في الهند - أو الهنود ترك بسبب الفقر المستشري هناك الهنود تزويد المهنيين ذوي المهارات العالية جدا في جميع أنحاء العالم. الهند لديها نظام تعليمي متطور إلى حد ما مع تعليم باللغة الإنجليزية. يكفي لملء المناصب في العديد من البلدان الأخرى. ومع ذلك، بدأ هذا الاتجاه يتراجع إلى أعلى مستوى في مطلع القرن (معظم إيتيانز على سبيل المثال انتخاب البقاء في الهند الآن). لكل المهنية التي تغادر الهند الآن، وهناك العديد من أكثر من ذلك البقاء وراء - نسبة كبيرة عن طريق الاختيار. وقد تغير هذا بالمقارنة مع 1980s - 2000. الهند ليست بلدا غنيا اليوم. لماذا كان هناك إذن أن هناك شركة بريطانية في الهند الشرقية، وهولندية والفرنسية واحدة ماذا عن البرتغالية قبلهم في 1498 ولماذا - لماذا لماذا كولومبوس تبحر المحيط الأزرق آه - لأن الهند (والصين) هما أغنى الأمم في ذلك الوقت - حتى عام 1850 كان كل منهم 2025 من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العالم كل - مع أي ديبت. وجاء تحسن اقتصاد المملكة المتحدة على حساب خسارة الهند. ومعظم هذه الشركات في الهند الشرقية كانت أول الشركات المملوكة للقطاع العام (قراءة - الرأسمالية التي بدأت مع التجارة الاستعمارية أمبير من الهند وآسيا وأفريقيا والعالم الجديد) - والتي أدت بدورها إلى تشكيل البورصات (بدأت البورصة الهولندية مع تداول شركة الهند الشرقية الهولندية.) الهنود لديهم شعور عميق من التاريخ، ومع تحسن الاقتصاد، جرعة صحية من القومية. الهنود لهجات - ولكن أيضا الفرنسيين ولكن الهنود غير مستهجن - الانتظار جيدا حتى أطفالك يكبرون - ويذهبون مطاردة الهنود (والصينية) بالطريقة التي ركضت بعد أمبير الفرنسية الإيطاليين. راجع للشغل، وهذا قد بدأ بالفعل يحدث في المملكة المتحدة مع الهنود والولايات المتحدة مع الصينيين. والسبب في ذلك هو أن هذا هو الحاجز الأخير الذي يبدأ بعده الفضول الحقيقي والتشكيك والتفاهم والتوترات العرقية. 7.8k المشاهدات ميدوت عرض أوبوتس ميدوت ليس للاستنساخ لقيادة حياة أقل الإجهاد. أنا في أوائل 20039s تأتي من بئر للقيام الأسرة. هذا ما جمعته خلال هذه السنوات العشرين من حياتي في الهند. 1.) مسح مدخل جامعة دلهي (دو-جات) (الفئة العامة). حصلت على رتبة جيدة ولكن لا يمكن أن يدخل الكلية من اختياري بسبب ذبح من جامعة دلهي (المصدر: فمس خليقة حتى يترك الطلاب في الكرب). كان على تسوية لبعض كلية أخرى. قدم للحالة في المحكمة العليا. إنهم يحكمون على قضيتي قائلة إن الاقتباس ليس له قيمة كبيرة. قدم للمرة الثانية. تلقى دعوة تهديد قائلا أنني يجب أن تأخذ قضيتي مرة أخرى وإلا وأود أن نأسف على العواقب. لا تزال متابعتها. في الوقت الذي يجب أن أفكر في مستقبلي وجدت نفسي متشابكة في كل هذه الأشياء. هذه المرة كان لي كل البراهين بشأن ذبح حتى ولكن لا يزال لا يمكن الحصول على أي شيء مثمر هذه المرة كذلك. قدم لوقت آخر فقط أن تخيب مرة أخرى. هذا هو ما تحصل عليه عندما تذهب ضد النظام. 2.) أعيش في مبنى بعض جزء منها قد احتلت لأغراض تجارية (غير قانوني وفقا لمعايير حكومة دلهي). وذكرت ذلك إلى الشرطة و مسد. تلقت ردا من الشرطة أنني لا ينبغي أن المتاعب الرجل مرارا وتكرارا وإلا سوف يتم محاسبتي تحت إيبك. هذا هو ما تحصل عليه عندما تذهب وفقا للقواعد. 3.) رأى شخص يسيء إلى شخص قديم في السوق دون سبب. وطلب منه التوقف. هذا هو ما يقوله المقبل التالي تو تشوب هوجا فارنا تيري غار مي غوسك مارونغا توج. توغي باتا ناهي أوب سي هو ميكوت. (يمكنك الخروج من هذا وإلا سوف يضربك في بيتك، وأنا من الولايات المتحدة). صفعني في وقت لاحق. هذا هو ما تحصل عليه عند محاولة إيقاف شيء خاطئ. 4.) حصلت سيارتي إصلاحها من محطة خدمة ماهيندرا وجدت بعض مواطن الخلل في وظيفة الطلاء. قال مستشار سيريفس حول نفسه و سادكوت يي الهند هاي 19-20 كا فارك إلى هوجا هيكوت. (وهذا هو الهند الذي فاز 039t الحصول على أي شيء مثالي). لا معنى للمسؤولية والقائمة سوف تستمر. حسنا، وفقا لتجاربتي الشرطة هنا لا يهتمون القانون 039، والقضاء do039nt تعطي لعنة عن المعاناة الخاصة بك، وإذا كنت في محاولة لوقف شيء غير قانوني أو غير عادل كنت على هيتليست ثم. ملاحظة: عدم الكشف عن هويته لأنني أشعر بأنني يمكن أن تكون مضادة للوطنية بعد أن يقرأ أحدهم إجابتي. 12.4k المشاهدات ميدوت عرض أوبفوتس ميدوت ليس للاستنساخ فيساخ V كريشنا. ويعتقد في قصة النمو الهندي لدي صديق جيد جدا الذين يعيشون في السويد مع عائلته. كنت أتحدث معه عن النظر في إمكانيات العودة إلى الهند. ثم يقول لي قصة حياته كمثال على السبب في أنه لن تنظر في العودة. وهو مواطن من مادوراي في جنوب الهند. فقد والداه عندما كان صغيرا جدا وكان لديه شقيقة لرعاية. نشأ في أقاربه 039 مكان وكان عليه أن يكافح كثيرا خلال طفولته. بوجود شخص ليس من خلفية اقتصادية قوية، قال انه لم يكن هناك لحظة واحدة في حياته حيث شعر بأنه بحاجة أو ساعد من قبل النظام. كان عليه أن يكافح طريقه إلى الكلية في عداد المفقودين على الفرص التعليمية في المعاهد الجيدة بسبب التحفظ (تن تحفظ 69 في ذلك الوقت). وجاءت له فرصة ذهبية من الفرصة عندما تلقى عرضا للدراسة في واحدة من أرقى الكليات الهندسية في السويد مع منحة دراسية بعد تكافح الكثير في الهند. هو اخذه. حصل على وظيفة بدوام كامل قبل أن ينتهى من درجة الماجستير. وهو يعمل الآن في منصب هام في منك الكبرى في ستوكهولم. الازدهار الاقتصادي الذي أعقب تغير حياته للخير. وهو يقول لي، هذا البلد أعطاني كل شيء عندما لم أكن حتى مواطن بدوام كامل عندما بلدي cann039t تمديد أكثر المساعدة الأساسية عندما كان need. quot الآن انه استقر بسعادة وأصبح مواطنا سويديا. ليس لديه خطط للعودة إلى الهند. قد تكون هذه قصة مختلطة جدا. ولكن في تجربتي في الخارج، فإن معظم الهنود الذين التقيت لديهم قصة مماثلة لنقول. سوف تجد شخص صيني على الأرجح أن يقول أنه يريد العودة إلى وطنه. على العكس من ذلك الهندي على الأخص (وخاصة في منطقة ستيم) من المرجح أن تتخلى عن احتمال العودة إلى الوراء. انه على استعداد لاتخاذ المتاعب لتعلم لغة جديدة والاندماج في المجتمع المضيف من حتى محاولة العودة إلى الوراء. في حين أن الهنود قد تفخر بأن يكون لها مجتمع أكثر حرية من الصينيين، في نهاية اليوم المزيد من الهنود على استعداد للتحرك في الخارج من الصينيين. مثل واحد من أصدقائي (الذي يعمل كباحث في إيث زيوريخ) المذكورة، الفرق ما الذي يجعله عندما يكون لديك كسر الديمقراطية في بلاسيكوت هؤلاء هم الهنود الذين لا يطلبون السيارات الفاخرة، الشقق المترامية الاطراف، حرية المساعد الشخصي الرقمي أو أي نوع من القيم الغربية لهذا العرض. كل ما يطلبونه هو فرصة للعمل والحكم بطريقة عادلة. ومن الواضح أنه مع كل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العقد الماضي، لم تتمكن الهند من تقديمها لهم. وخلاصة القول، مثل بعض نري على كورا المذكورة، وأنا لم أتخلى عن الهند. الهند تخلى عن me. quot تحرير: الموضوع الرئيسي الذي يجري مناقشته على قسم التعليق هو التحفظ مع الناس يستدعيون الحاجة لفهم الموضوع. أنا آسف لخيبة الأمل، ولكن هذا السؤال لم يكن حول فهم التحفظ. كان أول شخص 039s حساب كان لي تجربة الاستماع التي شعرت ذات الصلة لهذا السؤال. وأود أن أطلب منكم عدم القاضي أو إهانة شخص ما كنت don039t تعرف. إذا كان الناس سعداء أينما كانوا ليست هناك حاجة لالطين الطين على الناس الآخرين الآراء. 275.8k طرق عرض ميدوت عرض أوبفوتس ميدوت ليس من أجل الاستنساخبونات الصلب منذ هذه المدونة المثيرة للشفقة مليئة بالاقتصاد الكلي مهووس بالسياسة النقدية، على عكس الأشياء معظم الناس يهتمون فعلا، يتيح الحصول على إيه. بعد كل شيء، موسمه التدوير مرة أخرى والمصرفيون قد بدأت للتو حرب الرهن العقاري الجديدة لامتصاص في العذارى. لذلك، حيث معدلات تنخفض قليلا، في الواقع. ثم يصل. ثيريس الآن شك ما سوف تجلب الأشهر المقبلة. على الفور، البنوك تقاتل من أجل حصة السوق في السوق الذي يتقلص. وقد كانت العقارات ساذجة في 80 من مناطق البلاد، في حين أنها تفجرت في اثنين آخرين. ولا عجب، مع ارتفاع أسعار السلع الأساسية، وتدفق المداخيل، وتراجع الوظائف، والمواطنين المختلطين في الديون. وكما قلت لك يوم الاثنين، قبل ساعات من اندلاع الحرب، فإن هذا سوف يستغرق قرض منزل ثابت لمدة خمس سنوات ثابتة إلى مستوى جديد حيث تسابق المقرضين إلى القاع. الآن لدينا كلمة من أمام 2.5 فيفرز، 2 المتغيرات و 3.69 عشرات. وبطبيعة الحال، إذا كانت ألوهية إلفين لا تزال معنا، ثيرد تكون من الفراء والفراغات الدم عبر غرف المجلس من أبراج خليج باي. وأوضح واو أن أسعار الفائدة على الرهن العقاري، والحوافز، والصفقات الخاصة، والمعدلات الرهينة للأطفال كانت أخبارا سيئة لأنها تشجع الديون، وتضخم المنازل، وتضر بالأسر. لكن خلفه المحنطي سوف يخفي بدلا من القتال. في الواقع ترك لرئيس الوزراء نفسه أن يعلق يوم الأربعاء. قال الإله الكبير: 8220I8217m لا أقول I8217m غير مدروس. ولكننا نراقب ذلك. We8217re لا تخطط لاتخاذ أي إجراء فوري. نحن نواصل مراقبة سوق الإسكان ووضع الإقراض والاقتراض بعناية فائقة. لقد اتخذنا بعض الخطوات على مدى السنوات القليلة الماضية لتبريد السوق إلى حد ما. هم. ونفى عدم القلق. وقال انه لم يستبعد العمل، مجرد عمل فوري. والأهم من ذلك هو أن الحكومة بردت إلى حد ما السوق. ومشاهدته. بالتأكيد يبدو مثل ثيريس شيء قادم في الميزانية، لا على أي حال، يتيح الهوس حول بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي لبضع جمل. وبرز زعماء البنك المركزي الأمريكي من اجتماعهم الأخير لتأكيد أسعار الفائدة الأمريكية سوف ترتفع في عام 2018، كما قلت لكم انهم سوف. قد تكون الزيادة الأولى في يونيو، إذا كانت بيانات العمالة والتضخم معقولة، أو في سبتمبر، إذا لم يكن ذلك. في كلتا الحالتين، يحدث. الاعتقاد العام هو أن معدلات سترتفع حوالي نصف نقطة هذا العام، ثم يتم تعديلها كما هو مطلوب في اللانهاية. هيريس الأخبار: هذا هو نهاية الفترة الأكثر ضخامة من المال في القرن الماضي أن البنك المركزي كان موجودا. لم تقتصر أسعار الفائدة على الخندق فحسب، ولكن البنك الفيدرالي قد أنفق بضع تريليونات شراء السندات وإلا ضخ السيولة في الاقتصاد لاعادته من حافة الانهيار على غرار 1930s الذي يلوح في عام 2008. بارد. انتهى. وقد تم الانتهاء من البرنامج الضخم (85 مليار دولار شهريا) في الخريف الماضي. وسيتم رفع أسعار الفائدة الطارئة لهذا العام. هذا هو التحول الأساسي في السياسة النقدية التي آمل أن لا أحد يفتقد. إن مجلس الاحتياطي الفدرالي يضغط على وظيفته في محاولة لإنقاذ الاقتصاد من خلال التخلي عن المال، وإعادة تأسيس دوره كحكم. وستستمر في زيادة المعدلات ببطء مع ارتفاع الأجور والأسعار والنشاط الاقتصادي من أجل احتواء التضخم، وستستمر عندما يحتاج خلق فرص العمل إلى رفع أو يجب أن يسود الدولار، ولكن ذهب الآن إلى ولاية البنك الفائق. لا رأس. لا الجوارب. لا الكعك من الصلب. للكنديين، ثيريس لا مقاومة. بنك كندا سوف يحذو حذوها كما هو الحال دائما. قد لا يكون قبل نهاية العام، ولكن القادمة. والفشل في العمل هو التضحية بالدولار، وتضخم الواردات، ورفع مؤشر البؤس. كما أنه سيؤدي إلى زيادة ديون المستهلك، وبما أن كل شيء أثبت أننا لا نستطيع الوثوق بالمال، فهذا يشكل خطرا كبيرا على المستقبل. سأل أحدهم مساء الأربعاء إذا، إذا ما حدث كل ذلك، إذا كان من المنطقي لإخراج الرهن العقاري لمدة 10 سنوات. يمكنك تسجيل واحد من هذه لحوالي 3.6. وبينما يتم منح معدلك في الحجر لعقد من الزمن، بسبب قانون الفائدة كندا يصبح الرهن العقاري مفتوحة تماما بعد خمس سنوات. لذلك، إذا كانت معدلات أن تكون أقل ثم هل يمكن أن تدفع من دون عقوبة. ولكن لدي صعوبة في فهم كيف يمكن أن يكون ذلك ممكنا. لا يوجد اتجاه واحد فقط لتكلفة المال مع تقدم الانتعاش العالمي، والولايات المتحدة توسع، أوروبا يعود مرة أخرى على قدميه والصين تتحرك للخروج من مرحلة المراهقة الاقتصادية. وعلى مدى السنوات الخمس المقبلة يمكن أن تتضاعف المعدلات بسهولة. الناس الذين يقترضون الآن في 2.7 سيتم تجديد في أكثر من 5 8211 إذا كانوا محظوظين جدا. لذلك، ماذا أفعل إذا كنت نوتسو بما فيه الكفاية لشراء 2 مليون منزل وسط مدينة تورونتو إيجار لمدة 3،800 في الشهر ولم تدفع نقدا الاستيلاء على تشيبو خمس سنوات الربيع خاص أو دفع اضافية 1 لا مفاجآت حتى عام 2025 حسنا، في الواقع إد الذهاب متغير لمدة 2 واستثمار كل دولار إضافي في محفظة متوازنة قوية المتوقع أن تنمو 50 من قبل التجديد الوقت. ولكن هذا لي. ليس في ووس الذي يقرأ هذا بلوق. بالنسبة لك، لحظة فريدة من نوعها. اقفلها. 257 تعليقات دار 1 أولي دوبيرمان في 03.18.15 في 6:44 بيإم 1 ولحقيقي هذه المرة 2 شاول لايبويتز في 03.18.15 في 6:44 بيإم الجميع 8211 نلقي نظرة على الرسم البياني للنفط التالية، تحديثها اليوم: الآن، ككندي، من فضلك قل لي كيف كنت لا تشعر بالقلق. وارتفعت مخزونات النفط ارتفاعا هائلا. وسيؤدي ذلك إلى استمرار الهبوط في أسعار النفط الخام، التي ستحطم الاقتصاد الكندي والدولار، في رأيي. أنا لواحد سوف شراء العقارات إذا رأينا الرهون العقارية سعر الفائدة السلبية في كندا. 4 ليري واشنطن في 03.18.15 في 6:45 بيإم الكنديون غبيون جدا عندما يتعلق الأمر بالمال، والاستثمار. يعيش الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية. 5 ديبت إمبريس أون 03.18.15 أت 6:50 بيإم قال يا. تخلص منه. لا توجد معدلات كبيرة رفع حتى عام 2020. ربما لا حتى ذلك الحين. كما قلت لك، أسعار الولايات المتحدة ترتفع في عام 2018. الحصول على أكثر من ذلك. 8212 غارث عندما يتم ثمل الأشياء، لا شيء 8230. سمعت هنا أولا 8230 ري: للكنديين، ثيريس لا مقاومة. بنك كندا سوف يحذو حذوها كما هو الحال دائما. بالنسبة لي إعلان بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي يعطي بنك كندا بعض الغرف لتنفيذ اثنين من تخفيضات معدل أكثر ثم ببطء متابعة الولايات المتحدة من ثم على أن من شأنه أن يكون أكثر حكمة. 8212 غارث غارث، كنت تقريبا يبدو وكأنك تفوت فلاهرتي. الغياب يجعل القلب تنمو فوندر، وكل ذلك. هذا كاد منخفضة يضر الأعمال. وقد شهدت شركة زوجي 8217s هامش تختفي على المنتجات التي تم شراؤها من الولايات المتحدة. من الصعب تحقيق الربح دون أن يمر كل ذلك جنبا إلى جنب إلى customer8230 الذين 8217s أيضا إكينغ من العيش كما جميع النفط التصحيح ذات الصلة هزيلة أسفل الأعمال كل شيء حتى يجف. حزين. كنا ذاهبون لتسديد الرهن العقاري العام المقبل مع واحد فقط آخر مكافأة. ليس بعد الآن. 9 دومينويس لينينغ أوب أون 03.18.15 أت 6:57 بيإم ساول ليبويتز (2) مخطط المخزون النفط الخاص بك هو مثير جدا للاهتمام. وكما قال هيليارد ماكبيث هذا الأسبوع على كبك، كان آخر حادثين عقاريين كنديين على علاقة وثيقة تقريبا مع انخفاض أسعار النفط وانفجارات مخزونات الخام في الماضي. ويظهر هذا الرسم البياني بوضوح ذروة عام 1990، التي ترتبط أيضا تماما مع انهيار العقارات الأخيرة هنا. و 2018 على الرسم البياني تبدو أكثر من ذلك بكثير، أكثر دراماتيكية. ولا يمكن أن يكون أي شيء أكثر وضوحا. 10 الحقيقة واضحة في 03.18.15 في 6:58 بعد الظهر من يفعل 8217t الحب الجدة يلين. في كل مرة تزور أنها تعطي المال. الكلاسيكية. النقدية من الجدة. يختبئ في يدها. إذا كانت بجانبها أنا I8217d يعطيها قبلة على الخد. 11 حاشية جانبية في 03.18.15 في 7:02 بعد الظهر أوه كيف أتمنى هذه الأسعار كانت متاحة على العقارات التجارية. I8217d الحب لتجديد في 2.79. وقد أجرى بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي تجارب على عمليات السوق في عام 19208217. وهذه السياسات في السنوات السبع الماضية قد كررت أساسا نفس خطايا الماضي. هذه المرة انها 8217s مختلفة أزمة الديون العالمية مباشرة إلى الأمام 8230. 4 ليري واشنطن في 03.18.15 في 6:45 بيإم الكنديون غبيون جدا عندما يتعلق الأمر بالمال، والاستثمار. يعيش الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية. كنت الصوت المر بالنسبة لي. مثل كل واحد منا هنا في انتظار الحادث كان يجب أن اشترى خصائص متعددة وركوب الموجة بدلا من تحطيمها من تسونامي من الجهات الفاعلة التي هي بوضوح الفائزين. بعد كل شيء، وقد أظهرت لدينا غوف الوقت مرة أخرى أنهم 8217re على استعداد للقيام بأي شيء لدعم الإسكان. النهاية. 14 سيدشو روب في 03.18.15 في 07:07 بيإم آسف أي معدل الارتفاع في أي وقت قريب. تغذية يتكلم القمامة لأن الكلام هو كل ما حصلت عليه 8217s. أوروبا تتفكك. 6 أشهر من الآن سيكون أسوأ بكثير كما سوف الاقتصاد الأمريكي. ولا يستطيعون رفع أسعار الفائدة. صفر ملزمة. معدلات السخرية 8230when ترتفع (في سنة ربما) سيكون سوق السندات التي تفعل ذلك وفي الوقت الذي سوف تغذية أقل تريد ذلك. وقت كربي ليكون مصرفي مركزي. رفع أسعار الدولار والدولار يزداد قوة مما يفجر كل تلك الأسواق الناشئة التي اقترضت بالدولار الأمريكي. دون 8217t رفع معدلات وتفقد جميع المصداقية. آسف جانيت ولكن كنت على الجانب الخطأ من التاريخ. أن حقيبة تبخير أن برنانكي غادر على مكتبك كان الغداء 8217t. I8217m خالية من الديون، والرهن العقاري وخالية من الإيجار. دون 8217t حتى مدينون النيكل على بطاقة الائتمان الخاصة بي 8217 لأنني أدفع الرصيد كل شهر. أنا don8217t لديها خط الائتمان أو قرض السيارة إما. كل دخلي هو التدفق النقدي الحر. لذلك تقلبات أسعار الفائدة هي التثاؤب كبيرة بالنسبة لي. اعتدت أن تكون مسكن في المدينة الشقة المملوكة الرقيق الشركات ودفع ضريبة الدخل غضب الطريق، لامتصاص مص، وشدد على الرهن العقاري الرصيف 8230 ثم وجدت أخيرا سر الحياة. ودعا IT8217s الحرية 35. خطة مالية أنا وضعت من تلقاء نفسها، و it8217s كل القانونية والأخلاقية. و أنا don8217t أن مجرفة 50 سم من الثلوج في 18 مارس. و لا، أنا didn8217t الزواج أو وراثة كومة كبيرة. ولكن يا رفاق don8217t تريد أن تعرف عن ذلك. 8220 إن عدم اتخاذ إجراء (رفع أسعار الفائدة من قبل بنك الکویت بعد رفع أسعار الفائدة الأمریکیة) ھو التضحیة بالدولار، وتضخم الواردات، ورفع مؤشر البؤس. 8221 غارث الیوم قمت بتخطیط بعض الرسوم البیانیة عن مبیعات التجزئة الکندیة (مع أو بدون السیارات ) والميزان الكندي للتجارة والحساب الجاري. وهي تبدو في الواقع اتجاها نحو البؤس. وتشير المخططات إلى أن الكنديين المنتجين قد أنفقوا بالفعل أرباحهم في المستقبل، وأنهم يقومون بتصفية مدخراتهم نظرا لأن تجارة الصادرات في كندا 8217 قد عانت من ارتفاع تكاليف الاستيراد عند انخفاض كاد. مشاعري بالتحديد. الانتخابات الكندية القادمة. يقول غارث أنه من غير الحكمة ولكن جارث يفكر في ما هو أفضل للكنديين. السلطة المالية تزيد أرباح الأسهم بنسبة 6.4، لأول مرة في أكثر من ست سنوات 8230 19 الصبر لا المزيد في 03.18.15 في 7:13 م يلين أمب بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي قد فقدت الصبر اليوم، ولكن عندما تبدأ أسعار الفائدة في وقت لاحق من هذا العام، هورني هاوس سوف العذراء قد فقدت شيء أكثر ثمينا 8211 البراءة. 20 بين النجوم القديمة القديمة في 03.18.15 في 7:14 بيإم غارث، أي كلمة على كيف المسرحية إيكسيك neighbour8217s المنزل تقوم به وقد تم سرد I8217m التخمين مع جلب معدلات الرهن العقاري مثل هذه، الآن سيكون الوقت 8230 هل أنت إنسان. الدولار الكندي هو بالفعل في 70s مقابل الدولار الأمريكي إذا قطعنا مرتين، وأنها تضيف مرتين. سيكون لدينا الدولار لأسفل إلى أقل من 50C وهبوط التضخم أن سبب 8217d سيكون هائلا إذا كانت الدخل بطانة مسطحة، لماذا إيجارات السماء الصواريخ وأنا أفهم أن الملاك تحتاج إلى تغطية دفعهم مت مجنون ولكن كيف هو أن الناس يدفعون I8217m تصبح مهووس مع بناء منزل صغير وغرقه في صديقي 8217s الفناء الخلفي. لول آخر لطيف غارث. We8217re يعيش في أوقات مثيرة جدا للاهتمام أعتقد أنك سوف ينتهي الأمر الصحيح وسوف بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي ينتهي بزيادة معدلات هذا العام. لست متأكدا متى ولكن أراهن على أنه يحدث بدلا من لا. مجرد سؤال 8211 مع الدين الاتحادي في الولايات المتحدة كان في 18 تريليون دولار، جنبا إلى جنب مع 95.6 تريليون في الالتزامات غير الممولة 8211 سوف 8217t بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي أن تفعل اضرارا هائلة لحكومة الولايات المتحدة من خلال رفع أسعار الفائدة مع ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة، كانن 8217t الولايات المتحدة في نهاية المطاف إلى التخلف عن دينها يرجى شرح لماذا لا. الانتعاش العالمي lol8230 شكرا على الضحك. 25 قطرة للشرب في 03.18.15 في 7:23 مساء قلت أن داو سيضيف 500 للأسبوع بعد إعلان بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي. في منتصف الطريق هناك. آسف الناس، أي زيادة معدل هذا العام. يريدون. معدل كبت في تحطيم المدة مطابقة لأعمال التأمين وخطط المعاشات التقاعدية. الأسواق لترتفع 10 أخرى هذا العام. السعي للحصول على العائد وتطفو يتقلص كما إعادة الشراء كروز على طول الحفاظ على قيادة السوق. رائع فقط فلدي تعرف متى للخروج. ولكن أشك نحن 8217ll نرى 5.4 أسعار الفائدة مرة أخرى في حياتي بعد وحدها في 5 سنوات. 20 مارس 2020: I8217ll نرسل لك علبة من الكلب 8217s علاج ل بوتش الخاص بك إذا I8217m خاطئ :) 27 الديون الظلام احتضان في 03.18.15 في 7:28 بيإم قال يا. تخلص منه. لا توجد معدلات كبيرة رفع حتى عام 2020. ربما لا حتى ذلك الحين. كما قلت لك، أسعار الولايات المتحدة ترتفع في عام 2018. الحصول على أكثر من ذلك. غارث ياح ياح، كنت sayin8217 أن كم سنة الآن لن يحدث في حياتك. على أي حال، يتيح هوس حول بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي لبضع جمل. وقد برز زعماء البنك المركزي الأمريكي من اجتماعهم الأخير للتأكيد على أن أسعار الفائدة الأمريكية سترتفع في عام 2018، كما قلت لك إنهم سوف يفعلون ذلك. قد تكون الزيادة الأولى في يونيو، إذا كانت بيانات العمالة والتضخم معقولة، أو في سبتمبر، إذا لم يكن ذلك. في كلتا الحالتين، يحدث. الاعتقاد العام هو أن معدلات سترتفع حوالي نصف نقطة هذا العام، ثم يتم تعديلها كما هو مطلوب في اللانهاية. 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212 فاتتك اتصالك غارث، وهذا هو نوع من الشيء الأفضل تركت وكلاء العقارات. الرغبة في رفع معدلات ورفع لهم isn8217t الشيء نفسه على الإطلاق. ما سمعت جانيت يقول اليوم كان 8223maybe 8217 الدهون كبيرة. لول غارث. ضع نقودك حيث يتواجد فمك. إذا كنت متأكدا من أن الأسعار سترتفع السندات القصيرة. وضع كل ما تبذلونه من المال في ذلك وتحميل لقطة الشاشة حتى نعرف أنك حصلت على الكعك من الصلب. كما أنهم لم يقولوا انهم سيزيدون معدلات 8230 غيروا فعلهم في السن وأزالوا كلمة 8220patience8221 سندات كندا 2، 5، 10، 20، 30 غلة السنة هي الآن 0.48، 0.73، 1.32، 1.92، 1.97. مثيرة للشفقة، وانخفاض معدلات منخفضة أن تبقي يعود شهرا بعد شهر. وكانت هذه المعدلات مزدوجة قبل 5 سنوات، وحتى لو كانت لمطابقتها مرة أخرى في 5 سنوات، انها مجرد العودة إلى أين كانوا. I8217m متأكد من أنها لن تقترب من هذه ولكن إذا فعلوا، فإنها سوف تراجع مرة أخرى إلى أسفل مرة أخرى. أولئك الذين لديهم 2.5 إلى 3.00 الرهون العقارية التي يجب أن تدفع في 3.5 إلى 4.75 الرهون العقارية ستكون مؤقتة كما في 12 إلى 18 شهرا أنها ستكون في 3.00 إلى 3.5 نطاقات مرة أخرى. تلك التي اشترت 500،000، 600،000 المنزل سوف تحصل على حرق من جميع الضرائب الممتلكات والكهرباء والحرارة وفواتير المياه والتأمين والتصليح والصيانة، H. S.T. الخ الطريق قبل أن 8217re تدفع 300، 400، 500 إضافية شهريا. تلك التي اشترت الشقق هي في مشكلة حقيقية مع 500 في الشهر مجرد متوسط ​​رسوم الشقة في تورونتو والتي ستكون 1000 في 10 سنوات فقط. كل شيء آخر سيجعل العقارات لا يمكن تحملها لا أسعار الفائدة الآن، I8217m متأكد من أن بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي لديه نية رفع معدلات في وقت ما هذا العام. لكن ماذا في ذلك. ويمكن أن يتغير رأيهم بسهولة إذا بدأوا يرون علامات للتضخم. وذكرت يلين على وجه التحديد أن الدولار القوي يدفع التضخم إلى أسفل. And wage inflation is subdued. Hence her line about being 8220data dependent8221. They8217re forecasting the need for rate hikes but a forecast and a promise are not the same thing. We8217re all kinda scared, aren8217t we 8212 Garth 32 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 03.18.15 at 7:33 pm we are doing so good in Saskatchewan that we just borrowed 700 million 8230 oh o not again 8230where did all the saskaboom money go the fed wants to raise interest rates soooo bad but i doubt it for 2018. Per Zero Hedge. Why are stock soaring in response to the Fed statement and latest set of projections Because, as Bloomberg promptly calculated, the FOMC revised down all forecasts for 2018 since the previous SEP was released on Dec. 17. The median dot for year end 2018 falls to 0.625 from 1.125 in Dec: a whopping 0.50 cut. And there goes not only the 8220recovery8221 but any imminent rate hike. The central tendency for GDP this year is 2.3-2.7 vs 2.6-3. But the real hammer was 2018 and 2017: these were just slashed from 2.5-3.0 and 2.3-2.5 as of December, to 2.3-2.7 and 2.0-2.4. Unemployment rate 5.0-5.2 vs 5.2-5.3 The Fed now sees PCE inflation at 0.6-0.8. This was supposed to be 1-1.6 just three months ago. Core PCE 1.3-1.4 vs 1.5-1.8 And the one that matters most, the 8220dot plot8221, saw the median dot for 2018 fall to 1.875 vs 2.5, and decline to 3.125 from 3.625 for 2017. As interest rates rise 8211 price of most assets will go down. Interest rates act as gravity to asset prices. The only exception would be selected financial institutions (Insurance companies, non-canadian banks) and cash rich companies (like AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JNJ etc.) with little or no debt. Its time to be selective. 35 everythingisterrible on 03.18.15 at 7:36 pm 8220I finally found out the secret to life. Its called Freedom 35.8230But you guys dont want to know about it.8221 821282128212821282128212821282128212 Let me guess, move to a small crap town and pan for gold or grow organic potatoes. - You8217re right, we don8217t. 15 Lillooet, BC on 03.18.15 at 7:07 pm Im debt-free, mortgage-free and rent-free. Dont even owe a nickel on my credit card cause I pay off the balance every month. I dont have a line of credit or car loan either. All my income is free cash flow. But you guys dont want to know about it82308230 Oh do prey tell wise one how this is done 5 Debt8217s Dark Embrace on 03.18.15 at 6:50 pm 8220Told ya. تخلص منه. No significant rates hikes till maybe 2020. Maybe not even then.8221 Wow Yet another guru with a crystal ball Hey If you can predict economic gyrations and the subsequent Fed actions and reactions 5 years out, you should have no problems blessing us with stock prices next month C8217mon Give us 5 of your top picks 8220If incomes are flat lining, why are rents sky rocketing8221 I8217ve been asking this about Vancouver since the mid-80s. By the time, I entered college, I knew without a doubt I would never be able to afford a home in the Lower Mainland. I was proven right for the following two decades. 39 Finland is FINNISH on 03.18.15 at 7:51 pm I did not realize that the IRD penalty goes away after five years. That is fantastic. I took a 7 year fixed (yeah yeah) in 2018 that hits the five year anniversary next April. Anybody got a suggested course of action for then (The mortgage is under 100K if that makes any difference). Go variable, go with a 1-2 year fixed, or something else 40 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.18.15 at 7:57 pm Congrats, dear lady Living the life YOU want DEBT FREE is what the grand plan should be for the un-stressed. Well Done. Freedom First, I and others here share a similar outlook, I think. All are happy two try to instruct those who are stressed, but there are relatively few here it seems. Most seem to be doing well, and bless them, life IS better that way. Everyone makeup their own mind 8216how8217 they will live. Our blog host has provided untold wonderful wisdom over the years. While no one ever has perfect vision of tomorrow, we can usually react with grace, and help should the proverbial bottom fall out. We8217re recovering, like Flaherty. 42 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.18.15 at 7:59 pm OOPs Lillooet, BC I said 8220Dear Lady8221. I may well be wrong there, well done anyway, pardon my faux paus. 43 margin disappear on 03.18.15 at 7:59 pm 8221 My husbands company has seen margin disappear on product purchased from the US. Hard to make a profit without passing it all along to the customer 8221 Your husband should be selling parts for residential boilers for customers, who are not prepared to take Canadian winter without heating. The going margin is 100 on parts, which are generally not sold to walk-in customers8230. in Canada. In the US of course it8217s a different story. If you somehow magically source the part, the service man refuses to install it for you in Canada8230 telling you with straight face, 8220because we can not provide warranty on it82218230 as if it was not the manufacturer to provide the warranty on parts. It feels like some industries in this country still operate as if it was the 19808217s and the sheep Canadian customers fail to put them out of business. Your husband should sell boiler parts without discrimination to anyone who wants to pay for it. With 50 margin he would be the 1 seller in Canada. 44 Andrew Woburn on 03.18.15 at 8:02 pm 23 Former Fool on 03.18.15 at 7:20 pm Just a question with the US federal debt being at 18 trillion, along with 95.6 trillion in unfunded liabilities wouldnt the Fed be doing a tremendous disservice to the US Government by upping interest rates At higher interest rates, couldnt the US end up defaulting on its debt Please explain whywhy not. 82128212821282128212821282128212821282128212 The US doesn8217t borrow money to fund operations, it prints money. It issues bonds etc. to soak up excess money supply and for other strategic purposes. Countries that issue debt in their own currency can never go bankrupt. If you want your money back they will give it to you. It just might not buy as much as it used to. In olden times they called this 8220debasing the coinage8221. 45 the show must go on on 03.18.15 at 8:06 pm 14 Sideshow Rob on 03.18.15 at 7:07 pm That steaming bag that Bernanke left on your desk wasnt lunch. 82128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211Sideshow, that is funny lol. but true. Bernanke bailed before TSHTF. 31 Balmuto Maybe you can explain to us what is disinflation 47 Drill Baby Drill on 03.18.15 at 8:12 pm Inflation has already been imported since the dollar dropped last year. 48 Andrew Woburn on 03.18.15 at 8:14 pm 8220There may be a simpler explanation for Saudis willingness to see prices slide than an attack on US shale or a political plot against regional rival Iran, though: a change in the Saudi view on peak oil.8221 A few months back I listened to a CBC program with some Parliament Hill journalist who wrote a book about what is going on there. He was of opinion that Harper8217s idea is to make it a habit for Canadians that Conservatives are the ruling party. Just as Liberals had their run. His strategy is in very careful balancing between his own agenda and the opinion of majority. Basically, he is making all changes in a 1000 small steps that would be nearly impossible to undo and ultimately would lead to his vision of Canada. On one hand, housing collapse. On the other hand, excessive borrowing, pension fund deficits, inflation. Can8217t solve this. The only solution for our Zeus is to postpone as long as possible. 50 GTA Observer on 03.18.15 at 8:18 pm 22 Sue: If incomes are flat lining, why are rents sky rocketing I understand that landlords need to cover their crazy mtg payment but how is it that people are paying Where is this Sounds like a real imbalance in supply and demand 8211 fewer rentals, more tenants Rent is ordinarily bounded by income, and that8217s not going up. Housing markets are increasingly distorted. 51 Drill Baby Drill on 03.18.15 at 8:24 pm Oil Market signals indicating upcoming stock market mayhem in my view are the following 8211 continuation of lowering oil prices (over supply) 8211 oil industry junk bond collapse (starting to happen) 8211 bank stock drop (not upon us yet) All 3 of these occurring in tandem will put serious downward pressure on Wall strret Nope. Energy is a relatively small component of US markets. 8212 Garth 8220cash rich companies (like AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JNJ etc.) with little or no debt.8221 Those companies may be cash rich, but they are enormously levered to consumer and government spending. Both of which will be significantly stopped in their tracks should interest rates rise significantly. Insurance companies, likewise, in a higher rate environment would suffer large losses on their long-term bond portfolios and equities correlated to such. Excess returns on low-risk assets such as long-term fixed income has boosted the fortunes of insurance companies and pension funds everywhere. If rates are to rise significantly, what you want to invest in are firms that require large amounts of capex that already have the investment made . Such firms, such as utilities, miners, etc. will have enormous pricing power in such an environment. Basically, take a look at the SampP500 over the past 35 years. Find its average return over that interval. Now find which sectors outperformed over the past 35 years, and find the sectors that underperformed. You want to invest in the past underperformers, not the outperformers, for a rising rate environment. In some sane moments I am still blown away about the genius idea of charging interest on money, printed out of thin air. I wish I was the one who invented it. I can8217t really think of any more appealing idea, I can8217t imagine any better way to make money infinitely. I truly believe this must be the greatest achievement of mankind now, in the past and for the rest of the future that is still ahead us as the top visible species of the universe. I find that the most unfortunate mistake and injustice ever occurred is that the genius minds behind this great idea never received even a post-humus Nobel prize8230 What a shame. At least I am thinking of them with the greatest admiration every time when the head of the Fed, who is in charge of articulating today, for all of us around the world the wisdom of the genius minds of charging interest of money printed on thin air. I feel utterly honored that I have the chance to use and take the blessings of this amazing idea that leaves us in debt, with no hope that our words can ever properly describe the genius minds. Garth, The Canadian dollar was up 1-15 cent against the US today. The Dow was up 300 points after the Fed8217s statement. It appears the interpretation by the financial world is the the US rates are not going up any time soon. They may want raise the rates, but the deflation pressures exported from Asia and now from Europe with much weaker Euro, it may not happen for a long time. Markets were up today after being down prior to the announcement. Traders covering their butts on speculation, buying on news. Means little. 8212 Garth 5 Debt8217s Dark Embrace The idea that Canada will not follow suit as the US rises rates is far fetched. I believe that they are sweating bullets thinking of the various factors at play (e. g. personal debt levels, exports, etc). More proof that economies cannot be managed by central planning committees. It is sad that our governments learned nothing from the 20th century. Distributed systems are more robust and adaptive that centralized ones, as any student of the internet knows. We should have competing currencies, no central banks, no moral hazard (e. g. bank bailouts). Indeed, it is good to be a central banker. Garth8217s claim that the Fed 8216spent8217 trillions is questionable, as it conjures up an image of them shipping trillions of dollars of their hard earned cash reserves (or gold or some other asset). In reality, it is entries on an electronic ledger. 8220the genius minds behind this great idea never received even a post-humus Nobel prize8221 I think you mean posthumous. Post-humus conjures up images of researchers getting handed bags of decomposed soil. ) 57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.18.15 at 8:49 pm 15 Lilloette 8220A financial plan I developed on my own, and its all legal and ethical82308230..8221 You eat, drink and sleep THIS 58 mike in kelowna on 03.18.15 at 8:52 pm Garth82308230..saw your buddy Benjamin Tal get scmucked by Peter Schiff on BNN this evening8230What a goof 59 Obvious Truth on 03.18.15 at 8:53 pm As the day gets closer the deniers get more testy. They hard for any sliver of justification. Canadian data was awful again. That inventory chart looks like the one garth posted on oil. Fed don8217t care. Rates will slowly rise. It8217s now a matter of just months. Read the release. Very simple language. Business and households to provide the tailwinds. Really good news. For everybody. 60 Babblemaster on 03.18.15 at 8:54 pm There goes the Fed once again. Saying nothing and bluffing big time. No more patience, though. So, are we to ASSUME a rate rise Yes, but it depends. So, yeah, OK, there could be a rate rise. What total BS this whole charade is. Instead of a rate rise, there8217ll probably be another QE. That8217s what Schiff says and I believe it. BTW, you know what happens when one assumes Garth do you think this will be passed in the next budget: Member of Parliament Irene Mathyssen introduced Bill C-282, An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act (feminine hygiene products), on October 16, 2018. Sign The Petition: NO TAX ON TAMPONS 62 seeing it from both sides on 03.18.15 at 8:59 pm Have you succumbed to ads I8217m getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments. And ad tags attached to select words like Bank, Invest, Again () etc. Not me. 8212 Garth 63 Drunk Actuary on 03.18.15 at 9:01 pm 52 Mark 8220Insurance companies, likewise, in a higher rate environment would suffer large losses on their long-term bond portfolios and equities correlated to such. Excess returns on low-risk assets such as long-term fixed income has boosted the fortunes of insurance companies and pension funds everywhere.8221 As an actuary working for a large canadian insurer I can tell you this is false. Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them. Yes the bond portfolio of insurance companies take a hit with higher yield, but these bonds are used to back the reserve that they need to hold for claim payments, and these reserves decrease at the same rate the bond value decrease. So insurance companies, when interest rates move, don8217t have much gain or loss of capital on bonds because of the same move in liabilities, but they benefit greatly from the higher monthly interest payments of a higher rate environment. Don8217t believe me. Look an any chart of any canadian insurer you know in the first half of 2018 when rates raised (Manulife, GreatWest, Industrial Alliance8230) 64 TurnerNation on 03.18.15 at 9:05 pm Smoking man vs Gartho on interest rate calls. I took oil today. Garth, You got it backwards it is 8220buy on rumors and sale on news8221 66 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.18.15 at 9:07 pm Rates will raise this year, guarantee it Perhaps third quarter but Garth is correct Sorry kiddies the free ride is over. Oh it8217s going to be hell out there with all of the minions of house horny overstuffed people saying WTF happened Karma baby 82208230as the global recovery progresses, the US expands, Europe gets back on its feet and China moves out of economic adolescence.8221 Hmmm8230wouldn8217t be relying too heavily on any ONE of these, let alone all four. رائع. 68 Andrew Woburn on 03.18.15 at 9:10 pm 2 Saul Leibowitz on 03.18.15 at 6:44 pm Everyone take a look at the following oil inventory chart, updated today: Oil inventories are skyrocketing. This will result in a continued plunge in crude prices, which will crater the Canadian economy and dollar, in my opinion. It is not fun but remember this is a US storage problem, not a world price problem. Brent crude is 56 not 44. The US just finished a strike that cut out 20 of its refinery capacity and more capacity was down for overhaul. This is the major reason that gasoline prices in BC and California are up. Summer driving season is about to start. US rules don8217t let refiners export gasoline. Under the circumstances is it likely that the US government won8217t give at least temporary export permits It8217s going to be tough in Alberta but if I were the oil minister of say, Venezuela, I would be more worried. Banks are going to milk you like a cow. Computers project your actions before you even know. Low interest rates now high interest rates later. Surprise..your screwed. But but but.. 53 blown away on 03.18.15 at 8:30 pm The ancients understood that the game, when society became too depraved amp debauched had to be reset 8211 thus the jubilee. The Romans took a different approach though, as the debts fell into private hands and not the state, they chose war to settle accounts. We8217re going to have a war, but what will anything be worth once the mushroom clouds have receded That8217s the question. amazon. caThe-Lost-Science-Money-Mythologydp1930748035 Well I had a great day, my son, not so good, I8217m thinking about banning him from Trading. He8217s out of control. Last night we had a talk, it was to early for me to read into fear and greed. I Got a good feeling the FOMC was going to be in a bind, USD so high it8217s hurting the recovery, the CEO of Galap poll said Labour stats are funded. But then I was worried Yellen might give a shit about her ego. More than the recovery. So I said to my son, no trading today, I told him I suspect the USD might lose a cent or so. But on these types of days you can get wiped out in Milli seconds. What I dident know or check he had two sells on USDCAD. I trusted he was natural. After I closed out my 2 million in profit, I log into his account. Good news is he8217s up 20k for the day. Bad news he l took a huge hit when he got out, just as I was loading up. Had he not caved he would have made 250k he should set some stops the negate a out. Why I8217m pissed, he should have let me know he wasn8217t natural. I can8217t baby sit him8230 One more chance I8217m thinking. He caught the slidder perfectly, exited to early. Dident fallow rules. Because he was rattled with the big hit, he was happy to get out with a win. That8217s not how you do this. Not often you get a 4 big number move in one day. You guys know where the pic is. Now it8217s time to drink. 8220I think you mean posthumous. Post-humus conjures up images of researchers getting handed bags of decomposed soil. ) 8221 After your colorful description I like this better than the pale word of choice that my broken English misspelled in a miserably funny way. How about just calling it a Freudian slip Garth, or anyone, Can you explain this.8212 Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape. I never even got a kiss. That to me means RAPE Yup, fed will likely raise interest rates in the fall, not this summer, admit it. Even Yellen admits stock valuations are on the high side, that means they have been that way for a long time. 76 Massive Layoff. on 03.18.15 at 9:28 pm Well Alberta has been in denial but this week has done much to put some reality on the table with huge layoffs being reported. One thousand jobs snuffed in just one day in Calgary. For those who were laid off in Calgary on Tuesday morning there is no more denying that low oil prices will not impact their lives. Within one three hour period using a very conservative wage loss, Calgary just had 50,000,000.00 removed from its economy. Significant. Canada, you say It is what it is, and there is no there there 15 Lillooet, BC on 03.18.15 at 7:07 pm8230 With all due respect, there are many others on this blog who have accomplished everything you have and more (and didn8217t have to move to a tiny remote town to do it). But they don8217t post nearly every day to remind themselves of how smart they are. You have been right about a lot of financial bench marks over the past year. I truly hope our economy will support increased interest rates over the next five years. However I truly don8217t see interest rate increases as you do. 8220Over the next five years rates could easily double. People borrowing now at 2.7 will be renewing at more than 5 if they are very lucky.8221 More likely they will be renewing at .5 than 5. 80 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.18.15 at 9:37 pm 81 The real Kip on 03.18.15 at 9:44 pm So now we have to look to Mr. Harper for 8220guidance8221 Is that some kind of joke Oh well, it can8217t possibly be worse than Janet Yellen and her parade of idiots 8220More likely they will be renewing at .5 than 5.8221 Doubtful. If the economy really gets that bad that rates go that low, then risk premia for the most indebted borrowers, residential retail borrowers, will likely blow-out. Lots of people lost their houses in the 1930s on account of foreclosure. Not because policy rates were high (they weren8217t), but rather, because they had negative equity and the bank refused to roll their balloon mortgages on account of poor credit-worthiness. Balloon mortgages being the types of mortgages that are nearly universal in the Canadian landscape. 82201st and for real this time8221 That8217s a GOOD doggy. Sit Dobey, sit. That8217s a good boy Ok, see this stick I8217m going to throw it way over to the other side of the internet. Fetch Dobey, fetch 64 TurnerNation on 03.18.15 at 9:05 pm Smoking man vs Gartho on interest rate calls. I took oil today. 82308230. Dude, Garth is smart, safe wiegthed smart basterd, his problem, he8217s pretty straight shooter, and assumes that the feds, the stats people are as straight as him. So he goes with the schooled prospective. Hence he8217s not always right. Puts to much faith in institutions, and accepted hiarcky. I know the machine is one big lying mafia. Takes one to know one. Hence I have an advantage. GARTHS Balanced approach works, works well but boaring and slow. Rabbit and Turtle. He8217s got to stop being so trusting. It8217s hard, he8217s got an obidance certificate. 8220Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape. I never even got a kiss. That to me means RAPE8221 Decreasing volumes due to a significantly weakened economy mean that the margins have to be made up somewhere. And governments haven8217t cut back their 8220take8221 on taxes. Remember also that much of Canada has been utilizing oil-sands derived feedstocks which were already severely discounted to WTIBrent even before the oil price collapse started. With as much deflation as appears to be occurring at the moment, the public should be clamouring for massive reductions in public sector compensation and spending. But unfortunately they keep voting for fools like the Wynne government. Even in Saskatchewan today, the government brought down a budget claiming a 100M surplus, yet debt is going to rise 1.6B YoY. Just how the politicians can make such claims with a straight face is beyond me. 86 Drill Baby Drill on 03.18.15 at 9:56 pm The layoffs that make the headlines here in Calgary ie: Suncor, Nexen, Conoco, Talisman etc. are small compared to those suffered by the service industries. In Engineering alone in the past 18 mths there have been 5000 let go and counting. This does not include, drillers, fab shops, suppliers, truckers, welders etc. It truly is bad and getting worse. I have been in this business for 35 yrs and it will be as bad as the mid eighties downturn. Actually I really do want to hear all about it. Where did you live before moving to Lillooet 88 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.18.15 at 9:59 pm Having been educated to the point of being useless, I cannot understand the jump in oil prices today. Makes no sense in the absence of real data and news. Tunis, Tunisia Instability in a country between Libya and Algeria Instability is good for the price of oil I will leave the analysis of the machinations of oligarchs and the MIC to Dr. Smoking Man. 89 Drill Baby Drill on 03.18.15 at 10:00 pm I remember the dollar sales in 1985 8211 87 whereby an antiquated law allowed Albertans who were underwater on their mortgages to sell their home to a speculator who then rented it out for up to a year or more before the sheriff kicked the renters out. If I had to choose between: Option A) being a mortgage slave for 40 years, shoveling snow for 8 months of the year, and having to commute one hour into work every day for the rest of my life Option B) living in Lillooet, BC 8230 I would obviously choose Option A. GT, you8217ve been quiet in recent weeks on a tory increase of the TFSA limit to 11K, yet some months ago you were regularly waxing poetic about it. Revised predictions Tx They killed the budget. 8212 Garth The Decline of Vancouver That8217s the 13th time this anti-immigrant drivel has been posted here. I expected more of you. 8212 Garth Garth your Rosy outlook on the markets 8230is not justified by Denninger8217s standards. and he makes some good points in regards to todays action8230.it8217s big investors running from one side of the ship to the other on the whim of the Fed 8230..pretty soon it will all capsize 8230. 8220There was one lesson today from the FOMC decision. The Fed downgraded their economic forecast. The market, in response, shot up 50 handles on the SampP and four hundred DOW points from where it was before the announcement. What this tells you is, quite simply, this: ALL of the market8217s upward move is a consequence of uneconomic decisions made by firms. It is not due to growth. It is not due to organic profits. It is not due to an improving economy. It IS due to borrowing to buy back stock and other leveraging games, all of which are Ponzi schemes. And this will end exactly as it did in 2000 and 2008, Larry Kudlow8217s chortling notwithstanding.8221 94 Andrew Woburn on 03.18.15 at 10:09 pm 63 Drunk Actuary on 03.18.15 at 9:01 pm As an actuary working for a large canadian insurer I can tell you this is false. Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them. شكرا للمعلومة. Is it true that lifeco8217s are gaining profit from increased lifespans or was that already basically factored into premiums Woman is all I8217m saying. I get home a bit late, had a few pints at the Duke. The Nazi wife, at the door, 8220you bastard, why you home so late, 8221 she says. 8220Had beer, and a massage, my back was sore. Hey I made 2 million today. 8221 I reply. 8221 You F basterd, the snow melted there is a mountain of cigarette buts, your cleaning that up now. 8221 She demands. I pull out the shop vac and suck them all up. As she supervises. Meanest face going. 8221 You have a ashtrays every where, why do you do this year after year. 8221 I said I don8217t know. And she storms into the house. So I think about it. I figure it out, there is nothing more satisfying than taken a cigarette that8217s down to the filter. You place it between your tumb and middle finger and launch it against the fence. You watch it get smashed to pieces, it8217s a very weird form of satisfaction. Destroying the thing that8217s destroying you. I have problems. اعرف. Honey Senica tomorrow night Ah she8217s smiling again8230. RE: 62 seeing it from both sides on 03.18.15 at 8:59 pm Garth, Have you succumbed to ads Im getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments. Check your browser for unwanted Add Ons. Run a malware scan, etc. Your machine has been compromised. 92 Grantmi on 03.18.15 at 10:03 pm The Decline of Vancouver Thats the 13th time this anti-immigrant drivel has been posted here. I expected more of you. Garth Sorry Garth I must be in SM mode. My sincere appoligies. Too many martoonies8230. 8220The rate suppression in wrecking the duration matching for the insurance business and pension plans.8221 Yup. That8217s why rates MUST rise. Insurers are Wall Street bankers too8230 Imagine a bailout of AIG x 100 across North America and Europe. غير ممكن. There is too much downside risk if they postpone rate hikes much longer. 8216I remember the dollar sales in 1985 87 whereby an antiquated law allowed Albertans who were underwater on their mortgages to sell their home to a speculator who then rented it out for up to a year or more before the sheriff kicked the renters out.8221 A few credit union issued mortgages may be still like that in Alberta, but for the most part, lenders aren8217t at risk of that happening again and impairing their books. Having said that, yes, my family did acquire one of those houses in Edmonton at the time. The attached mortgage was written out in the name of an obviously foreign-sounding name, and the mortgage lender was more than thrilled to allow us to assume it. The current regime, where the mortgage lenders will simply 8220put8221 the paper to the CMHC if it defaults, rather than deal with assumptions and dollar sales, guarantees a much different landscape than we saw in the 1980s though. Liquidation will be far more rapid and violent I predict than the relatively slow melt experienced in the 80s and 90s for Alberta RE. 43 margin disappear on 03.18.15 at 7:59 pm Why can Americans buy boiler parts that are only available to Canadians through licensed tradesmen In most of the US states save for Mass. any handyman can install and service your gas or oil boiler. In fact is common to have the local carpenter do it. Very few trades are certified through apprenticeships and written licenses either. You show up for the interview and explain that you know about high voltage electrical switchgear or high pressure natural gas steam boilers or whatever skill is required, then you start work that day. Not to say the US does not have some of the most highly skilled tradesman in the world. Just they have a wild west of certification. Now which system do you prefer The one where anybody can but boiler parts at wholesale and install them ad hoc or where you pay a markup(usually 33) on the part and have a licensed, insured and safety audited contractor sell and install it for you 8220As an actuary working for a large canadian insurer I can tell you this is false. Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them.8221 That8217s assuming that the insurers invest in short term paper which most generally don8217t on any significant basis. Insurers are the quintessential long-term conservative investors in the economy. Insurers over the past few decades, like most financial institutions, have enjoyed excess returns by prolonging the duration of their investments. Products such as life insurance and annuities inherently require insurance companies to invest for the long term. Products are priced at the coupon rate, but capital appreciation arising from such long-term bond investments have largely accrued to the shareholders and employees of the insurers. Of course, such isn8217t sustainable (what the bond market giveth, it will eventually taketh as interest rates eventually flat-line and normalize over time). Which means that insurance companies will not benefit. 102 Sheane Wallace on 03.18.15 at 10:28 pm there will be no interest rates increase in Canada, I am absolutely convinced as can8217t afford it. The CA dollar will be destroyed. Our economy can8217t handle interest rates increase as we use near zero interest rates to pile on debt, not to pay it. Ca dollar at 40 cents, simple as that, if not CMHC will blow off. 52 Mark 8220Insurance companies, likewise, in a higher rate environment would suffer large losses on their long-term bond portfolios and equities correlated to such. Excess returns on low-risk assets such as long-term fixed income has boosted the fortunes of insurance companies and pension funds everywhere.8221 Unlikely, for two reasons: 1) Interest rates affect not just the assets but the liability side of the balance sheet. Insurance companies 8211 life insurance companies in particular 8211 have long-dated liabilities that often aren8217t fully hedged on the asset side. In fixed income terminology, the duration of the liabilities exceeds the duration of the assets. This means that when rates go down, the present value of the liabilities increases more than the present value of the assets, causing a hit to the surplus, which ultimately makes its way to the income statement. When rates go up, the opposite occurs 8211 there is less of a decrease in the value of the shorter-dated assets than in the value of the longer-dated liabilities, which increases the company8217s surplus position. 2. The spread insurance companies earn between the actual investment yields and the guaranteed interest rate they offer to policy holders tends to be lower in a low rate environment. This spread compression causes a drag on insurers8217 earnings. The widening of this spread that would accompany a higher yield environment would be a boon to insurers. This article explains the interest rate sensitivity of insurers in more detail: 104 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.18.15 at 10:30 pm 84 CJ on 03.18.15 at 10:00 pm 15 If I had to choose between: Option A) being a mortgage slave for 40 years, shoveling snow for 8 months of the year, and having to commute one hour into work every day for the rest of my life Option B) living in Lillooet, BC I would obviously choose Option A. Okay, for all that we8217re crapping on remote, little towns, I do want to hear Lillooet out. For the average schmoes like me, fleeing to a small town would mean earlyearlier retirement, which starts to look really good when job stress is through the roof. Though we love the big city, all options are on the table. In a little town we could live on much less, have a bunch of big dogs, and the kids would be happy until they grew into bored teenagers. Lillooet, your brilliant recipe, if you will 84 Smoking Man on 03.18.15 at 9:51 pm GARTHS Balanced approach works, works well but boaring and slow. Rabbit and Turtle. 821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 Here8217s what eventually happens to the rabbit: 106 Sheane Wallace on 03.18.15 at 10:30 pm at 20 cents we can successfully compete with Asia for cheap labour. 107 Travelin Fool on 03.18.15 at 10:31 pm I8217m sitting on my perch at the Hyatt Regency Hong Kong, reading a stern rebuke in today8217s South China Morning Post, aimed at anyone who denies the HAM issue in Vancouver and Canada generally. Of course some people staunchly refuse to recognize facts as they are presented by China sources8230for reasons of their own. China now claims that as much as 1.4 trillion dollars has gone unaccounted for and they are launching a massive audit of all COE8217s around the globe. They have signed extradition treaties with 69 countries recently ( Canada not mentioned) and have repatriated thousands of wrong doers who absconded with funds taken from ministries and through general graft and corruption. Vancouver8217s big real estate story was of a 8216duck farmer8217 who bought a 52 million dollar mansion on Drummond Drive recently. Well8230.that8217s not quite true. The fellow is a central planner in charge of the City of Nanking ( Director of CCPPC)8230and has been buying multi million dollar homes around the world, including six others in Canada. All of these 8216officials are under 8216official investigation it has been announced in this mornings SCMP82308230.scurrilous rag that it is. The headline reads8230..8217China sheds light on hunt for fugitives8217 if you8217re interested in Googling the story btw. It has been a very active investigation leading to the arrest of many prominent 8216New Canadians8217. So82308230ahhhh8230NO Ham you say82308230balderdash. china says there are corrupt officials wanted for crimes against the people in the thousands who have stolen billions and have been very active accumulating multiple houses and buildings in Canada to get their money out of the country8230.but are not safe anymore. The SCMP more accurately reported the buyer is one of 2,000 members of the CCPPC, which is an advisory, not a legislative, body. He does not run Nanking, nor is he a politician or public administrator. He is, however, a billionaire with a skyscraper-building construction firm, several hotels and a couple of pharma companies. In other words, he epitomizes success and has a house that demonstrates it. Your comment, inferring he is a corrupt official who stole his money, is so typical. Poor Vancouver. 8212 Garth 8220Is it true that lifecos are gaining profit from increased lifespans or was that already basically factored into premiums8221 Insurance companies generally run portfolios where they seek to be neutral of longevity risk. So when they sell a life insurance policy, they will seek to also sell an annuity (or vice versa), such that, increased or decreased systemic longevity is neutral on the overall portfolio. What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios (since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out). A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment we8217ve seen since the apex of the long-term bond market in the early 1980s. you need US customers. whatever it is your husband is selling, sell it on line priced in USD. Hey smoking Man nice trade, thankfully you didnt get any of my stash. I bailed out of my long USDCAD position last night with a small profit. You can add me to your fan list, you add a comical note to the blog, I enjoy your sense humor. On a side note can I get a signed copy of your book when it is available Please. Do not encourage him. 8212 Garth 8220Dont believe me. Look an any chart of any canadian insurer you know in the first half of 2018 when rates raised (Manulife, GreatWest, Industrial Alliance)8221 I8217ll look at the long-term charts of insurers, particularly those ones you quoted, and see that, over the past 30 years (or as far back as I can go, since 8216demutualization8217), they dramatically outperformed the market indices, paid their employees extravagantly for what effectively is a clerical function of society. Those charts clearly show outperformance of the insurers versus the broad index of Canadian equities as represented by the EWC ETF. In the long-term falling interest rate environment. As I suggested in one of my earlier comments, a good investment blueprint for a rising rate environment is to figure out what sectors outperformed over the past 35 years, and underweight them relative to sectors that underperformed over the past 35 years. Insurers clearly benefitted enormously from the falling rate environment as the charts above show, relative to their peers in the broad stock market index. Only has to do with CSA etc. approval. A licensed insured heating gasoil contractor would be required to use only either CSA, Warnock Hersey, or Underwriters Labrotories. With only Canadian approval. If not approved for Canada, cannot be used. Only for your safety. Nothing to do with ripping anyone off. Quite the opposite actually. Of course you could always take your chances with bargain parts from some third world country. Garth, you can8217t rent a 2m house in Toronto for 3800 per month. Not possible 8211 unless it8217s some shitty bungalow on a large plot of land that8217s about to be demo8217d. Co8217mon garth, confess8230 Actually, I8217m inviting everyone over. 8212 Garth Canadians have nothing to worry about interest rates going up. We have Japan8217s playbook and were in the 3rd inning. For over 20 years Japan has had very low rates and they did ok. Canadians will see prime rate 0.25 ,5 yr at 1.25 and the 10 yr at 1.79.Yes we will endure a lower dollar, higher inflation and a real economic mess but we have no other choice. 117 Drill Baby Drill on 03.18.15 at 11:06 pm 85 Mark A big reason refined product pricing is not in lock step with the oil price is that refineries at this time of year are starting to recalibrate from winter fuel to summer fuel. This means plant shutdowns for turnarounds thus less product leaving the refineries. Also in order to make up the gasoline shortfall in Canada they import refined product from the USA at a premium of course. Most of this imported gasoline was refined from You Guessed it Oil Sands. 98 Whitby on 03.18.15 at 10:43 pm Hey smoking Man nice trade, thankfully you didnt get any of my stash. I bailed out of my long USDCAD position last night with a small profit. You can add me to your fan list, you add a comical note to the blog, I enjoy your sense humor. On a side note can I get a signed copy of your book when it is available Please. Do not encourage him. Garth 82308230. Please. Do not encourage him. Garth Garth, I love you, and I8217m not gay. Contemplating getting off my lazy boy chair, Need the little boys room, now that s fen risk. I killed after 5 or 8 pints at Duke, two Mickie s of JD. God I8217m sorry. This might not end well. In this world of financial mayhem, hows 8220fractional reserve banking8221. Wonder where the dude is that invented that one We are so screwed. 120 Drunk Actuary on 03.18.15 at 11:12 pm 102 Mark 8220Insurance companies generally run portfolios where they seek to be neutral of longevity risk. So when they sell a life insurance policy, they will seek to also sell an annuity (or vice versa), such that, increased or decreased systemic longevity is neutral on the overall portfolio.8221 False again, the assertion that lifecos perfectly hedge their longevitiy risk is a myth. Yes the risk partially offset each other but you just cant get a perfectly neutral portfolio. The reason is simple, annuity business are generally sold to old people and retirees, and theyll receive their benefits till death. Life insurance is usually sold to younger people who will take temporary insurance and often lapse the policy when their kids get older. Also there are so many different products right now that you cant hedge everything easily. And I don8217t think that you understood my previous comment. Life insurer are generally not making profits from a rise in bond value since their reserve are raising at the same rate, but they get hurt by the lower interest payment on these bonds and the lower investment return they get on new premiums. What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios (since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out). A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment weve seen since the apex of the long-term bond market in the early 1980s.8221 121 Drunk Actuary on 03.18.15 at 11:14 pm 8220What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios (since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out). A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment weve seen since the apex of the long-term bond market in the early 1980s. That paragraph ain8217t mine it8217s mark8217s one, Im just too retarded to quote properly. 122 lionsroarin64 on 03.18.15 at 11:24 pm Enough talk about things that matter. Garth, you mentioned our esteemed prime minister and his Budget That Wouldn8217t Be. Do you think they8217ll introduce a balanced budget with a sprinkling of sugar and spankings and then drop the writ for an election held before the end of June I8217m no Harper fan, but he must look at Creampuff-With-a-Hairdo on the one side and 30-Seconds-Away-From-a-Cardiac-Arrest on the other side and think, 8220Hmmmm82308221 123 Sheane Wallace on 03.18.15 at 11:29 pm Japan8217s debt is internal, they have bug trade surplus, also have very competitive manufacturing that will become even more profitable with the cheap Yen. In long term Japan will do better than Canada however funny this might sound today. Actually, Im inviting everyone over. Garth Buns of steel indeed. Japan has less than 2 of people being 8220foreigners8221. No need to say more. 126 Sheane Wallace on 03.18.15 at 11:33 pm Mark is an idiot, some of the insurance companies reserves are held in secure paper (e. g. bonds), it is mandated by the government, so are some of the long term investments for life insurance for example. Higher interest rate bring more profit. Read 117 Drill Baby Drill and those of you who live east of Saskatchewan may begin to understand why north America should be carved up into southeast quarters. It explains a lot. A different universe. Nothing to connect us. Even hockey won8217t accomplish this8230 Yellen in late Feb at a Senate Banking Committee hearing said the U-6 unemployment rate 8211 which includes people who are working part-time for economic reasons and those who are marginally attached to the labor force definitely shows a less rosy picture of employment in the country.8221 How relevant is U-6 at 11.3 to the economic recovery compared to the trotted out U-3 at 5.7 cnsnewsnewsarticleali-meyeryellen-unemployment-rate-less-rosy-when-you-count-part-time-discouraged If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear. How can that be good for the stock market 130 Ralph Cramdown on 03.18.15 at 11:57 pm Actually, Im inviting everyone over. Garth Today was great. When they unseal the Fed8217s minutes, they8217ll read 8220Let8217s take out the word 8216patience8217 but issue a quasi-dove-ish statement. That8217ll head-fake all the flash traders with weak-ass NLP algos and they8217ll get eaten by the ones with better parsers. Whee8221 Tip: WWWD That8217s right, What Would Warren Do You think at 2:00 he was on the edge of his seat in front of his Bloomberg (Quotron) in Omaha with finger hovering near the buy and sell buttons on his six screen trading workstation nearby I don8217t. 131 Financial Freedom at 40 on 03.18.15 at 11:59 pm 112 Mark 8212- Hmm, humouring myself with the 2018 MFC annual report, just search for the keyword 8220interest rates8221 in the management discussion amp analysis. Highly recommend going directly to the source. RE: Actually, Im inviting everyone over. Garth Have you been drinking with SM -) 4 Leroy Washington Canadians are very stupid when it comes to money, and investing. 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 Now I heard it all. Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the World8217s financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh. My only question is why do you, your wife, and a dog need to live in a 2 million dollar home Seems you could plow a portion of that rent into something else and still live quite well. Oh well I guess we all have to live in the moment too. Personally I can understand why my dentist makes as much as I do. That8217s tough work and she8217s running a business with all those hygienists and what not. But my money manager Yes he should make as much as I do, he has multiple clients after all. But if he8217s living in twice the house and driving a Beemer and his wife has a Porsche, I8217m wondering if maybe he isn8217t investing enough of his own money. I know it8217s very common these days to 8220flaunt it if you got it8221, and if it8217s TampA I8217m all in favor. But if it8217s wealth to some extent I think it8217s vulgar. So it8217s 8216vulgar8217 to rent and invest my money instead of buying an inflated pile of stones Would you be happier if money managers lived in mortgaged bungalows in the burbs (That would inspire confidence.) Flaunting renters 8211 I think you just invented something. 8212 Garth 135 NotAGreaterFool on 03.19.15 at 12:17 am Garth 8211 Will you take the elevator down from your glass office to hear Glenworth talk about the 1st Time Home Buyer At least send out your spies and report back the blog. 60 Babblemaster on 03.18.15 at 8:54 pm 8220There goes the Fed once again. Saying nothing and bluffing big time. No more patience, though. So, are we to ASSUME a rate rise Yes, but it depends. So, yeah, OK, there could be a rate rise. What total BS this whole charade is. Instead of a rate rise, therell probably be another QE. Thats what Schiff says and I believe it. BTW, you know what happens when one assumes8221 Yes, Babblemaster Let8217s review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole 8216thing8217 is BS. You ASSUME the whole thing is a 8216charade8217. You ASSUME there will 8216probably be another QE8217. You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume Mr. Garth, or anyone else who might know what the hell just happened8230 2 of my ETFs : 1) VUN (total US) 2) XIU ( tsx 60 ) both went down today while the indexes they follow went up. فإنه don8217t معنى بالنسبة لي. Is this a normal thing to happen. Doesn8217t this kinda defeat the purpose of following the news amp blogs and then making a informed decision on where to place your money are there any signs I could follow in the future to prevent something like this to happen to me again Who wants to live and retire in lilooet Seriously 8220False again, the assertion that lifecos perfectly hedge their longevitiy risk is a myth. Yes the risk partially offset each other but you just cant get a perfectly neutral portfolio. Of course, nothing8217s perfect in life. But that8217s the goal the insurers strive for, and judging by their financial results over the years, they8217ve done quite well at it. We have not seen a failure of life insurers on a widescale basis because of increasing longevity. Quite the opposite, the insurers have solidily outperformed the TSX and the SampP500 indices along with the rest of the 8216financial8217 sector. The 8216theory8217 that insurers do better in a rising rate environment might sound good, but the evidence of the past 15-30 years, of falling rates and insurance co outperformance relative to the market, does not bear this out. The reason is simple, annuity business are generally sold to old people and retirees, and theyll receive their benefits till death. Life insurance is usually sold to younger people who will take temporary insurance and often lapse the policy when their kids get older. Life insurance is also extensively sold to the elderly who use it to mitigate tax risk. I think we8217ve all seen that heavily run ad where seniors are advised, as part of their estate planning, to buy life insurance to 8216pay the taxes8217 owing on the disposition of a heavily appreciated family cottage. Also there are so many different products right now that you cant hedge everything easily. Agreed, but such products fit into an overall portfolio by the insurer, and the actuaries at a competent insurer strive to achieve pricing on products that reflect the risk. Anyways, I8217m not going to spend a lot more time along the lines of this topic, other than to say, the era of excess returns to 8220financial8221 entities, including insurers over the past 30-35 years, is gradually coming to an end. As Garth points out repeatedly (although we disagree on timing), we are on the cusp of a major change in the direction of interest rates. Sectors that benefitted from the long-term upside of falling rates, such as the FIRE sector, will find that rising rates represent quite the opposite of a benefit. والعكس بالعكس. The future, IMHO, is quite dark for most of the FIRE sector relative to the 8216rest8217 of the economy, and insurers are likely no exception. 114 Cato the Elder (yesterday) The process by which oil was created is quite well understood by geologists and others involved in it8217s extraction, and the information is readily available if you want to research it. So the only known natural (and read the word natural again, it can be done artificially but not in nature that we know) way of converting carbon and hydrogen into complex organic molecules is done by plants via photo-synthesis. You may remember something about it, this is why your tree has green leaves. But it8217s also algae and a wide range of other plants. Algae, and not fossils, is the true source of most of our oil and gas, not fossils, although their are often fossils found in the rock. So what happened millions of years ago (say 500 million) is that eons of dead algae was entombed with forming shale layers at the bottom of the ocean, along with the odd fossil. But this wasn8217t oil it was dead algae in sediment. These shale layers are often referred to as 8220source rock8221 in the oil industry, and it is where the fracking is occurring now but let8217s get back to the story because it wasn8217t oil yet. Along came plate tectonics. This is a weird word for the fact that the earth slowly moves, and certain parts crash up over other parts that are going down (if a crash can last 100 million years). Where the shale got buried deeply, the algae was converted through heat and pressure to oil and gas, and where possible migrated towards the surface since it is lighter than water, which there is a surprising amount of under ground in porous rock. Most of this oil probably got reabsorbed by the environment and converted back into plant matter as is very slowly surfaced, but where a 8220trap8221 existed, that being a fold of tight rock above a porous rock lick a previous ancient river bed or perhaps even a deep corral structure like the Leduc field, the oil remained below surface in those traps. Those traps over source rock are where conventional oil come from and we8217ve probably found most of them at this point with our 3-d and 4-d seismic. The proof is beyond conclusive. With modern chemistry we can prove that oil contains genetic markers of the algae that it was made from still included in the oil. Not all of the genes of the original plants were destroyed. So that is how the earth makes oil, and it is not controversial. We understand this now as well as we understand why the planets orbit the sun. Shale oil and gas is really going after the oil and gas that is left in the source rock, that didn8217t migrate due to being trapped. That8217s why you have to frack it, it won8217t come out unless you break the rock. So yes, the earth is making more oil. Unfortunately it looks like it will be another 500 million years before the tank is refilled. A good analogy is coal, which comes from ancient (but more recently) similarly buried trees. Everyone knows coal is buried trees, sometimes it still looks like trees when you dig it up. But the idea that the earth is through natural processes is still burying trees and converting them to coal at the same rate we are mining it is ridiculous. Oil is a finite, limited, and scarce resource. We can use it all up right away like the Easter Islanders used up their forest if we want (and that seems to be what we are doing), but like the Easter Islanders found out, the trees (and oil) aren8217t coming back. So please, please do a little bit of rudimentary research before making 8220sun revolves around the earth because the bible says so8221 type claims about oil. Every barrel of oil we consume is a barrel we will never have back on any time line that might matter to us. Claims to the contrary only display a lack of education, and wishful thinking. The only question remaining, and has been since the 408217s, is not 8220are we using up the oil8221, but 8220how much is there8221 Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 so lets play the numbers and place bets with our bookies on the fed budget: bet large on a raining in of CHMC look for lower pricipal purchase price limits. the big surprise will be in the minimum down payment requirements, regardless of purchase price, and new strict requirements as to where you get the down payment AKA forget flake 2nd mtg financing. make no mistake government politicos dont like time bombs ticking away in there back yards especially ones that could decimate the serving party, if it blows up on there watch. lets see how smart they are as we head into a federal election 143 Waterloo Resident on 03.19.15 at 1:28 am Garth, you said that rates in the U. S. will soon be going up. So then, why are rates in the bond markets crashing towards zero as these 2 charts show If traders were expecting rates to be going up anytime soon, then those charts would be rising, not falling, right Remeber this response Garth, U. S will not be raising rates this year. 145 Industrial Guy on 03.19.15 at 2:10 am 43 margin disappear on 03.18.15 at 7:59 pm You point out a major problem with your comments about cheaper parts sourced in the USA and service providers not installing them. because we can not provide warranty on it. It8217s actually a lot more complex than that. 1st, not all manufacturers in the USA comply with Canadian CSA requirements. We live in a world with a hodgepodge of manufacturing standards 8230. CSA, UL. CE, IEC, RUL, ISO, ITU. I could fill pages with standard designations used around the world. The argument can be made that all these competing standards are simply non-monetary barriers to trade and you would have a strong case. Here8217s one of the big differences between doing business in the USA and Canada. Standards (CSA for example) compliance for many products is backed by Federal and Provincial laws in Canada. Gas appliances can only be connected to the gas supply by a licensed gas fitter in some provinces. Here for example is TSSA Ontario Regulation 21201: Certificates required for various activities 6. (1) No person shall install, alter, purge, activate, repair, service or remove any appliance, equipment or other thing employed or to be employed in the handling or use of gas unless the person is the holder of a certificate for that purpose. O. Reg. 21201, s. 6 (1). In the USA, 8220Manufacturers submit products to UL for testing and safety certification on a voluntary basis. There are no laws specifying that a UL Mark must be used. However, in the United States there are many municipalities that have laws, codes or regulations which require a product to be tested by a nationally recognized testing laboratory before it can be sold in their area. UL is the largest and oldest nationally recognized testing laboratory in the United States. UL does not, however, maintain a list of the jurisdictions having such regulations.8221 This is why any handyman can install and service your gas or oil boiler 8230 well except as you pointed out in Massachusetts. Regulations are quite different in the USA. Many of Canada8217s strict natural gas regulations came about after the 8220LaSalle Heights Disaster8221, a gas explosion which leveled a housing project on the island of Montreal in 1965. 28 people lost their lives, 39 were injured and 200 left homeless. After this event it8217s easy to understand our very cautious approach to Natural Gas and Propane appliances. If you install a non-compliant item in Canada, you may be violating FederalProvincial laws. You8217re also accepting 100 liability for the part. If you buy a non-approved burner assembly or pressure blow off valve for your boiler and it causes a house fire or a flood 8230. you8217re stuck covering the repairs. If your8217e poorly installed item blows up the neighborhood. Don8217t expect you8217re house insurance to cover it. Counterfeit parts is also a growing problem in North America. 2nd problem 8230. distributors. Canada is a huge country with a small population. Many firms outside of Canada are very intimidated by the economics of servicing such a large area. They find it much easier to use distributor who service the national and local wholesalersretailers while representing multiple lines. These multiple lines make them economically viable. These distributors are given National or Provincial exclusivity In exchange for the free labour and marketing expenses provided by the distributors. Distributors add roughly 20 to 30 to the wholesale cost to cover their expenses. Would it be cheaper to go direct to the foreign supplier 8230. Sure, but it8217s highly unlikely they will sell to you in Canada and violate the binding distribution agreement in place. Since the distributors also handle local warranty issues 8230 anything bought outside their territory is not their problem. So sorry, no cheap parts for you 8230.. You8217re also paying for a higher level of safety. Isn8217t you family worth it 146 Canadian In US on 03.19.15 at 3:53 am Your closing analysis today suggests recessions are no longer a topic of possibility. It has been at least six years and the US fed has zero policy tools available WHEN the one occurs. The US has never entered a recession with zero percent rates, much less (effectively) zero percent for 15 years. It is also insane to reason a housing bubble exists completely independent of an equity market bubble. They were both born by excess central bank money desperate for yield and a lack of imagination of the populous as to what constitutes an investment. As a result of the unprecedented actions of the terrified US fed (if QE actually works we would have already raised rates), the (tulip) investor mob and the brain dead US government (spending in 10 years what took 225 years of their predecessors to spend) the US markets will collapse this year 8211 housing, equities and the 18 trillion US government debt. The long term charts tell it all. 147 Waterloo Resident on 03.19.15 at 3:59 am Well, that massive rise in the SampP 500 set off both 8216Buy8217 triggers in my stock timing system, something I wasn8217t expecting to happen for a few weeks at least. اوه حسناً. So tomorrow I place a buy at an equivalent SampP value of around 2103, about where I sold everything 2 weeks ago. For days and days all signals were red, even when stocks were rising a few days ago the moves were weak and all other signals were showing 8216no go8217. Suddenly everything is 8216Go8217, starting just today. ConocoPhillips became the latest major oil company to chop staff numbers to deal with the oil-price crash, and more layoffs in downtown Calgary are likely as the industry digs in for a lengthy downturn. The Canadian unit of the Houston-based oil major told employees on Wednesday that it was reducing its work force by about 200 workers, or 7 per cent of its total, spokeswoman Kristen Ashcroft said. Take Brian, for example. With three years and 520,000 left on his five-year mortgage, Brian (who didnt want his last name used) is getting ready to sell his Vancouver home in order to downsize. Hes now facing nearly 30,000 in fees to break his mortgage early, a calculation based on the difference between the 5.24 per cent posted rate on his mortgage when he first signed it two years ago and the 3.39 per cent posted rate his bank is offering today on a three-year mortgage (because Brian has three years left on his mortgage.) The bank uses these numbers despite the fact that Brians actual mortgage rate is just 2.79 per cent. Had the penalty been based on three months of interest payments, it would have been around 3,627. Brian was prepared to pay some kind of penalty for breaking his mortgage early, but expected it would have been one based on the rate he is actually paying and not the posted rate. The idea is sound. Im even OK with how the calculations are done, he said in an e-mail. Its just they use numbers completely unrelated to my actual commitment. Alan Kearns, president and founder of Calgary-based CareerJoy, said his firm had been approached by a number of energy-sector companies looking for assistance in letting staff go. This entire year will be like this, Mr. Kearns said in an interview. He said if oil and gas production companies are cutting jobs, then the engineering firms, construction and oilfield services companies that support the producers are likely to follow suit. 151 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 7:30 am 143 Industrial Guy So sorry, no cheap parts for you .. Let8217s take out of the argument the non-CSA compliant parts. Let8217s talk about parts that are made by the same manufacturer for the same product line. Let8217s even assume that the part is from the same local distributor. The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin (on top of the distributor8217s margin) on parts they install This way you can also discard the emotional selling point of 8220youre also paying for a higher level of safety. Isnt you family worth it8221 In fact, a system that does not allow 100 margin charged to families is safer, since it removes the financial incentive to use 8220grey market8221 parts 8211 if they even exist and they are not 8220simply non-monetary barriers to trade8221 (as you have pointed out). Charging families with 100 margin and using the safety of families argument just makes the cynical exploitation of monopolies and predatory pricing to a ridiculous level. If the economy is so strong why does the fed have to wait to raise rates Sounds to me like the old fat person. I am overweight and I will eat like a pig until the end of the year and then start my diet on Jan. 1. You know how long the diet lasts right 8220Were all kinda scared, arent we Garth8221 Bulls eye. Direct hit, from what I8217ve read over the past year. The only thing that will cure Canadian borrower8217s obscene appetite for debt is rate hikes. Slow, steady and unrelenting - to normalcy. Our economy is extremely distorted and unbalanced because of persistent dumb policy leading to excess debt. Fiscal stress is a great teacher. It forces people to plan and think and that is clearly not what has been happening since cb diddling with interest rates began. Where are the buns of steel at the cb At the fm8217s office Theres only one direction for the cost of money as the global recovery progresses, the US expands, Europe gets back on its feet and China moves out of economic adolescence. 821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212- That8217s a a lot of IFs, all strung together. Let8217s be clear 8211 Perhaps ONE rate increase by the US Fed this year is certain. After that, solid economic data needs to emerge, quarter after quarter, for rates to keep increasing. Else, it8217s just one step forward, one step backwards (if not two steps back). Sure, it8217s possible that rates double in 5years. But also very possible that rates stay the same. If the world economy is truly poised to pick up steam, the oil prices don8217t anticipate that forecasted demand 8211 Quite the contrary. Many times in the past 3-5 years this blog has asserted that its predictions were imminent, 8220Hope you listed your house 8211 It has begun8221 type of sentiments. We all know, 8220It8221 has NOT begun 8211 8220It8221 has actually gone backwards. We8217ve got a long, long way to go before SUSTAINED rate increases go from the realm of guesswork to real possibility. 63 Drunk Actuary on 03.18.15 at 9:01 pm I can8217t imagine the amount of cash sitting on the sidelines that would otherwise be invested in annuities, given the retiring cohort. A portion invested in these puts a floor under basic expenses and liberates a portion of net worth for the 8220wants8221 or bucket lists of life. Janet Yellen was giving a speech when her batteries went dead. A quick thinking minion shoved her carcass aside and replaced it with the energizer bunny and nobody even noticed. In fact, the bunny gave better 8220guidance8221 than Yellen. Keep the Ponzi going Now, just for fun, let8217s compare your resume with hers. 8212 Garth As a wise old owl once said. There8217s a fine line between an idiot savant and plain idiot. And tonight, you my friend, are, unfortunately, but very clearly, on the wrong side of that line. 158 More number spinning from TREB on 03.19.15 at 8:34 am 73 Roial1 on 03.18.15 at 9:20 pm 8220Garth, or anyone, Can you explain this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape. I never even got a kiss. That to me means RAPE8221 Simple, ugly greed. No sensible explanation available. No excuses. No sense. Simple greed. Cartel heaven. The enabling provincial PTB (because it does vary greatly by province) believe that the cartel have more right to your money than you do. Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit. 129 AD 8220If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear. How can that be good for the stock market8221 If the low rates are the only reason they8217re surviving then they have much bigger problems and wouldn8217t survive long term in any event. 133 Paddler 8220Now I heard it all. Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the Worlds financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh.8221 Actually, nobody is forced to borrow. People have to make their own decisions. 163 Sheane Wallace on 03.19.15 at 9:27 am 136 JimH on 03.19.15 at 12:22 am Yes, Babblemaster Lets review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole thing is BS. You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade. You ASSUME there will probably be another QE. You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 Do your leg work first and then pass judgement. Peter Shiff is on record (search youtube) predicting the credit bubble and house crash in the US at the time (circa 2005-2007) Morons were laughing at him publicly on TV, he was kind of the joke on public television. Very entertaining. Until sudenly he was proven right. I watch his calls, he might look off, based on timing (he predicted 5 k gold for example) but so far his views were pretty much accurate overwall. He looks at big picture and at the information avaiable and sees trend. It is not that difficult but it takes guts to be contrarian (as Garth here knows). To say Peter Shiff8217s track record is dismal proves ignorance and stupidity, so costly these days. As for rasing rates meaningflully when the whole world is cutting them and playing currency wars, I would have to wait and see that. Increasing rates by 0.25 or even 0.5 is irrelevant, it is like putting lipstick on a pig. I would need to see at least 6-8 rates to even remotely consider bonds or money instruments. 164 Sheane Wallace on 03.19.15 at 9:32 am Your money is a credit note owned by the bank and due to the bank. You own nothing. It is an illusion. As for the gas prices, it is normal, the executives need to maintain that profit margin that justifies their bonuses and this is all that matters. BTW gas in Toronto is 1.00 today. 71 Smoking Man on 03.18.15 at 9:17 pm Well I had a great day, my son, not so good, Im thinking about banning him from Trading. Hes out of control. Last night we had a talk, it was to early for me to read into fear and greed. I Got a good feeling the FOMC was going to be in a bind, USD so high its hurting the recovery, the CEO of Galap poll said Labour stats are funded. But then I was worried Yellen might give a shit about her ego. More than the recovery. So I said to my son, no trading today, I told him I suspect the USD might lose a cent or so. But on these types of days you can get wiped out in Milli seconds. What I dident know or check he had two sells on USDCAD. I trusted he was natural. After I closed out my 2 million in profit, I log into his account. Good news is hes up 20k for the day , Bad news he l took a huge hit when he got out, just as I was loading up. Had he not caved he would have made 250k he should set some stops the negate a out. Why Im pissed, he should have let me know he wasnt natural. I cant baby sit him One more chance Im thinking. He caught the slidder perfectly, exited to early. Dident fallow rules. Because he was rattled with the big hit, he was happy to get out with a win.. Thats not how you do this.. Not often you get a 4 big number move in one day. You guys know where the pic is.. Now its time to drink. ( ( Come on SM if you8217ve got 2M in profit and on a day with 750 trades in play you8217re BSing us. Tax farm slave trades and makes 2M profit823082308230823082308230823082308230..right. WTF are you doing working as a code smith See you at Santon Bridge 8220The only thing that will cure Canadian borrowers obscene appetite for debt is rate hikes.8221 Or spreadsrisk premia becoming quite large on account of diminished credit-worthiness due to over-capacityover-indebtedness. Which is exactly what we8217re starting to see. The declining housing market has sapped consumer equity which in turn, is increasing their borrowing costs. Its no coincidence that unsecured borrowing, typically at higher rates than dirt-cheap mortgage credit, has accelerated significantly over the past 2 years of house price stagnation and minor declines. IOW, I would suggest that the market is taking care of the over-leverage in the consumer sector by increasing the cost of credit, independent of BoC policy which ge nerally exists to target inflation across the entire economy. Since inflation is practically non-existent and will be even more non-existent as consumer balance sheets continue to weaken, there is no reason for policy rate hikes. Indications point more solidly towards the necessity of cuts, especially as such trend accelerates. 8220If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear. How can that be good for the stock market8221 Some companies actually benefit from higher rates. The TSX, for instance, is full of examples of such firms. Particularly firms with large investments in long-term plant and equipment, which will gain pricing power as higher hurdle rates for investment severely limit the ability of competitors to compete. Also, many firms are heavily indebted in long term obligations, so the rising raterising inflation environment depreciates the relative cost of debt service. For instance, the long-term interest rate is a key input to the NPV analysis of mining projects world-wide, in making investment decisions. If one inserts a higher rate into the analysis, many projects become less feasible and do not move forward. Meaning that, over time, supply is eventually constrained, and prices rise, even with rising interest rates. Additionally, in the rising long-term rate environment, most fixed income investments typically are losing a considerable amount of value (ie: high rates currency depreciation as I8217ve explained on numerous occasions), and historically investors have sought to hoard precious metals and certain other industrial inputs and inventories, obviously enhancing demand for such to the benefit of the producers of such. 167 Frank le skank on 03.19.15 at 9:47 am 141 john on 03.19.15 at 1:10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Now, just for fun, lets compare your resume with hers. Garth Wasn8217t it Ben Bernanke who (now infamously) said that there wasn8217t a housing bubble just before it collapsed back in 2008 You should see his resume. 169 Leroy Washington on 03.19.15 at 9:55 am Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the Worlds financial landscape in 2008 The answer is YOU did. YOU created that financial mess and just about blew up the World8217s financial landscape in 2008. And don8217t even pretend that you didn8217t Actually, Im inviting everyone over. Garth I hope you have at least two washrooms. 171 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 10:16 am 100 OttawaMike on 03.18.15 at 10:23 pm Now which system do you prefer The one where anybody can but boiler parts at wholesale and install them ad hoc or where you pay a markup(usually 33) on the part and have a licensed, insured and safety audited contractor sell and install it for you I don8217t live in Ottawa, but in our bigger city I have not managed to find that licensed, insured, etc. contractor that works with 33 markup. The markup is 100. So the total cost of replacing a 200 part is in a Canadian city as below: a) initial service call 85-120 (some use additional ridiculous 8220truck fee8221 55) b) 1-2 hours diagnosing the issue 95-120 per hour 8220yes, we do service that make and model8221 c) part 400 (with 100 markup) d) installation min 1 hour 85-120 Forgot to mention, no guarantee that this solves the issue, the 100 markup does not buy you refund if the already replaced part is not the issue. Guess what The American system looks pretty appealing now. Government are on the side of voters, not renters. Read about the Fed Meeting from yesterday. US interest rates will grow slower than expected. Search for 8220Fed dot plot8221. Mortage rates will remain low, very low, for longer. Painful for us renters who want to buy a house. At the News yesterday (Yellen): 82308221We might high interest rates, we might not,8230maybe yes..maybe no8230maybe in June8230maybe in September8230..8221 bla8230bla8230bla8230Always the same story.. Dans la brume pas mal82308230.(lots of fog) Now, just for fun, lets compare your resume with hers. Garth I have a better, more qualified idea8230.let8217s compare their T48217s instead8230. money talks resumes walk. re: 156 The Real Kip 175 Ralph Cramdown on 03.19.15 at 10:31 am 160 Ottawa 8212 8220Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit.8221 The SCMP more accurately reported the buyer is one of 2,000 members of the CCPPC, which is an advisory, not a legislative, body. He does not run Nanking, nor is he a politician or public administrator. He is, however, a billionaire with a skyscraper-building construction firm, several hotels and a couple of pharma companies. In other words, he epitomizes success and has a house that demonstrates it. Your comment, inferring he is a corrupt official who stole his money, is so typical. Poor Vancouver. Garth I think Garth8217s comment above highlights the difference between his thinking and my thinking on the issue. I believe that it8217s virtually impossible 8212 or at least highly unlikely 8212 to become a billionaire in China without supporting and being supported by various branches of the Communist party, which I believe to be a ruthless suppressor of human rights and a hotbed of corruption. Further, you don8217t go from broke to billionaire real estate developer without using a lot of other peoples8217 money, and it8217s my understanding that the Chinese banking system, in addition to being the instrument of state financial repression (i. e. paying savers significantly less than inflation as a matter of law and public policy, and allowing few other places for capital to be lent), very much lends on the basis of connections rather than sound business plans. In short, I believe that the phrase 8220legitimate mainland Chinese billionaire8221 is an oxymoron. Per other issues, of how much foreign money is in urban Canadian real estate I believe more than the naysayers think, because I do believe we are a safe haven destination for offshore cash (some dirty, some clean), so it is likely that some of it is disguised behind Canadian straw buyers. Whether Canadians WANT a laissez-faire policy toward foreign residential real estate ownership is another issue again, as is the question of how much legitimate Canadian ethnic buying is confused for offshore money by local xenophobes. The pro-China and pro-real estate crowd seems all too willing to conflate these issues and tar all opponents with the racist brush. Our man in Ottawa, such an idealistic crusader for human rights in certain conflicts elsewhere, gets a serious case of realpolitik on the China file. I8217ll say no more on the file, as Garth and I will obviously continue to disagree absent new data. But it does rankle me to see these issues continually conflated. I don8217t think I8217ve personally been called a racist here, except by one poster who labelled me such on the basis of what she imagined I8217d say in some situations (you DO get the crazies here), but views I agree with have often been denigrated and wilfully misconstrued, and at least some of the people who8217ve done it are obviously smart enough to know better. It8217s a cheap debating tactic. 15 Lillooet, BC on 03.18.15 at 7:07 pm Im debt-free, mortgage-free and rent-free. Dont even owe a nickel on my credit card cause I pay off the balance every month. I dont have a line of credit or car loan either. All my income is free cash flow. So interest rate fluctuations are a big yawn for me. Welcome to the club But you did not mention your significant wealth. I assume, like anyone with sizeable investments, they are directly or indirectly interest rate sensitive. Therefore interest rate changes SHOULD be of major concern. 138 Nodebt on 03.19.15 at 12:47 am Who wants to live and retire in lilooet Seriously So what8217s wrong with Lilooet Sounds good to me, considering that people actually think Elliot Lake (ONT) is a retirement haven. Maybe it is the glow-in-the-dark atmosphere in winter For those interested in my trading technical methods. Again this is very very risky. Unlike my son, I never use more that 7 of my book at any given time. Need back up to fight a string of bad bets. I strongly discouraged you from trying this. If you do, make sure you don8217t use more than 5 of your net worth in your fx trading account. Practise daily in a demo account for two years before using real money. Later debunking the tortoise and the rabbit fable. 178 Squirrel Meat on 03.19.15 at 10:44 am 134 nonplused on 03.19.15 at 12:14 am I know its very common these days to flaunt it if you got it, and if its TampA Im all in favor. But if its wealth to some extent I think its vulgar. So its vulgar to rent and invest my money instead of buying an inflated pile of stones Would you be happier if money managers lived in mortgaged bungalows in the burbs (That would inspire confidence.) Flaunting renters I think you just invented something. Garth 821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212- Maybe Garth8217s got a great set of TampA8217s to flaunt as well8230.. 179 Cape Breton is FINISHED on 03.19.15 at 10:46 am 180 Squirrel Meat on 03.19.15 at 11:02 am It8217s never dropping in YVR8230.. Last year, I sold a couple of grandparents estates, and the parents got the money, and they gave it to the kids to buy houses. I am always impressed with the healthy debate in the comments section of this blog, even if some of the comments are a little out of left field. I see lots of news about financial literacy education and I can8217t help but wonder if we need more of it The folks who read this blog are arguably above-average in their knowledge of investments, but how do we raise the collective bar so we, as a nation, have a better sense of what to do with our money I8217m sure this blatant display of hope for my fellow human8217s capacity to learn will be met with ridicule by the naysayers on the blog, but heck, someone8217s got to ask 8212 What will it take to kick the S out of Sheeple 62: Garth, Have you succumbed to ads Im getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments. And ad tags attached to select words like Bank, Invest, Again () etc. This happened to me awhile back. If I remember correctly I went into CONTROL PANEL, PROGRAMS8230.and deleted the offending download I8217d inadvertently picked up somewhere. Harmless enuf 8212 just a nuisance. 183 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.19.15 at 11:18 am 160 Ottawa on 03.19.15 at 8:44 am sofard. tumblrpost113616107456the-decline-of-vancouver Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit. Yep agreed, It is interesting that everyone is bashing the foreign investors that purchase property here. Specifically the Asian investors. I don8217t give a dam if an investor comes here to drop a couple cool big ones. It is interesting though that a lot of this investing is unscrupulous if not totally illegal. The only codicil I would like to have is if you invest here, you actually need to reside here for a certain number of weeks, months or a to be determined number of days. This and this only can help the local economy generate some revenue. As for the bomb dropped who come here to purchase property as a safe haven in order to launder or hide their foreign assets we need a reciprocity agreement with the investors nations to let them know how is dropping big fat ones here and for how much. Lets see how many real investors muddy the waters then. 8220Actually, Im inviting everyone over.8221 HonGarth NoSkinHeadJuniorBowlingLeagueGT8217s8230 It8217sEASTER, Or8230 HaveYouEverSeenAnEquinoXBunny8230 RogerMooreHas8230 SomethingForEveryOne8230 185 industrial Guy on 03.19.15 at 11:21 am 8220The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin (on top of the distributors margin) on parts they install In a word 8230 they can. Professionals can only charge what the market will bear. If no one was willing to pay the 100 margins 8230. these prices would fall. 8216Predatory Pricing8217. That8217s when prices are set low in an attempt to eliminate the competition. Walmart has turned this into an art. I thought you8217re entire argument was about overly generous margins. National safety standards tend to be duplicates with small variations of each other. The CSA has ratified a number of IEC standards over the last decade. As I said, some are simply non-monetary barriers to trade. Grey market products are a growing problem in Canada. It8217s an International crisis in the aircraft parts industry. Sounds like a great business 8230. we should all get our gas fitters license. Do you prefer the US system where safety is driven by fear of a law suits and there are little or no requirements for professional competence. I trust carpenters to hammer wood together. Installing gas appliances 8230 not so much. Gas safety is not a straw dog 8230. remember the LaSalle Heights Disaster disaster. Dollar-a-day mortgage offered by B. C. condo developers They must have heard the Fed is about to embark on rate hikes this year. Desperation, masked as competitiveness RE sales in the GTA are increasing at a rapid pace, a 10 increase in prices in the next 12 months is not out of order. Rate increase maybe 25-50 basis points in the next 4 years, hardly anything to worry about. Sure thing. Keep telling your clients that. Very responsible of you. 8212 Garth 188 Squirrel meat on 03.19.15 at 11:42 am Keystone is dead, dead and deader. Obama wants a legacy other than the Nobel peace prize droner. I don8217t see how rates doubling over the next 5 years could possibly be good for the overvalued stock markets we have around the world (and the US of A in particular). On the other hand, I don8217t think rates will go up that much if at all 8211 Mistress Yellen will get cold feet once she starts seeing the market busting and US dollar boosting effects of higher rates. Rising rates mean economic growth. Growth means more corporate profitability. That results in higher stock values. People here sure do obsess about extremes. 8212 Garth 190 CalgaryRocks on 03.19.15 at 11:43 am 162 Julia on 03.19.15 at 9:09 am 133 Paddler Now I heard it all. Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the Worlds financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh. Actually, nobody is forced to borrow. People have to make their own decisions. So the people that created the system, made billions off of managing it, marketing it and then spreading it across the planet by selling collateralized mortgage backed securities have no blame BS To 15 Lillooet, BC: Im debt-free, mortgage-free and rent-free. Dont even owe a nickel on my credit card cause I pay off the balance every month. I dont have a line of credit or car loan either. All my income is free cash flow. So interest rate fluctuations are a big yawn for me. I used to be a city-dwelling condo-owning corporate slave and an income-tax-paying road rage, latte sucking, stressed out mortgage serf then I finally found out the secret to life. Its called Freedom 35. A financial plan I developed on my own, and its all legal and ethical. And I dont have to shovel 50 cm of snow on a March 18th. And no, I didnt marry or inherit a big pile. But you guys dont want to know about it. Good for you You must have been very disciplined and worked hard to arrive where you are. I truly think you deserve it. But why brag about it If I did not know better, I would think it shows insecurity to have to show off this way. Almost sounds like Freedom First, and you know what some of us think about him. 192 millennial cowboy on 03.19.15 at 11:46 am Gartho: Yellen8217s resume reads like every central bank employee8217s8230. completely lacking any private sector (real world) experience. They are all just a bunch of ivory tower academics who really really believe in their theories. This time is different Assumptions made by Garth: 1. US Fed is always right no matter what they do. Let us forget that 2008-09 crisis ever occured. It was an outlier, oversight and will never happen again. Although the Fed didnt know what to do before the crisis it has learnt and is capable of handling any eventuality in future. (Forget 2000 dot crash too, forget 1929, 1937 ). 2. Bonds and Stocks are 8220always8221 negatively correlated. 3. I am the smartest person in the whole world. 4. Real Estate in Canada is in a bubble, but stock markets andor soveriegn debt markets (especially the US Treasuries) can 8220never8221 ever be in a bubble. (Where will people go if not into treasuries for safety. ) Forget the trade deficits that US has run for 40 years. 5. Fighting deflation through monetary policies is correct, because what will happen if prices fall. (Despite any efforts by monetary authorities, prices fall anyways. Isnt that a failure of monetary policies) 6. Never question the independence of US Fed, ECB amp Japanese Central bank buying their own soveriegn debt. Hey, they should also buy stocks and corporate bonds if need be. But insuring real estate through Fannie Mae and CMHC is always a bad idea, because that is a Government body. good luck investing. Cheers, I8217ll take 822038221 for a thousand bucks, Alex. 8212 Garth a deflating housing bubble (if not yet in Toronto and Vancouver), stagnant incomes I8217m repeating Garth8217s third paragraph supra rising unemployment, and record household debt. Next to no hope for raw materials exports. The PM is 8220not unconcerned8221, and adds 8220we8221 (his gov8217t) will take some sort of as yet unspecified action in the future. I get a sense of: creepy. (As in: Harper8217s a creep.) There8217s also something creepy about how some of the Alberta oil workers were let go 8211 note shoved under the door in the wee hours, hitchhike home, condiments in the cafeteria just disappear. The somnambulant doorknob sucker from North-of-Montana, this fat-lipped Teletubby PM, his Revived Egyptian Mummy FinMin, and cabinet crew of pudgy Cons savants are going to budget for what (Condoronto8217s skyline is creepy-lookin8217 too.) Another myopic view of the herded buyer Asian lady in Vancouver tells others to go back to where they came from so they can get their house a little off topic, but Yellen has a valuable stamp collection. I guess this is an example of how to hedge against mainstream economics, diversify. Love the history of stamp collecting myself8230(interesting way of passing on inheritence to future generations too8230. right Garth) So if rates go to 5 are we better off to sell our balanced portfolio and go into guaranteed investments like Gic8217s Most people rely on the 4 rule for financial independence. Which would be met without risk outside of equity funds in this scenario. So Garth can you look inside your Crystal ball and tell me If rates go up what happens to the stock market Nothing. And rates won8217t achieve 5 for a long time. 8212 Garth P. S Stamps are much better than Beanie Babies. Be careful what you choose to collect. just saying.. 163 Sheane Wallace re: Peter Schiff: Sheane, here8217s a little unbiased 8216legwork8217 for you. Read 8217em and weep Or better yet, please tell us how you would have made a red cent following his advice for the past, say 5-6 years. 199 Frank le skank on 03.19.15 at 12:26 pm 177 Cape Breton is FINISHED on 03.19.15 at 10:46 am 200 4 AM Sunrise on 03.19.15 at 12:39 pm 134 nonplused on 03.19.15 at 12:14 am My only question is why do you, your wife, and a dog need to live in a 2 million dollar home Seems you could plow a portion of that rent into something else and still live quite well. If it8217s within his means, he8217s free to do whatever he wants. Otherwise, what8217s the point of anything And I think you underestimate his net worth. If he actually bought that 2 million home in cash (which he can), maybe that would be vulgar. 165 OMG on 03.19.15 at 9:43 am. Ha, damn it, I8217m busted. I boast about being a masterfull skilled lier on a weekly basis. Of course I8217m bull shiting about making 2 million in one day. It was actually a bit more. damn there I go again. Lying. I have issues. 750 contracts 1.27901.2518 I8217m A compulsive lier. some people collect stamps. Get over yourself.. john on 03.19.15 at 1:10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 It8217s because of the refineries in the US That are either on strike or shut down for maintenance or whatever bs excuse they are given. Supply of gas vs demand equals price. Would be nice if canada would refine our own gas but the US would never allow that. The US will never allow Canada to have our own industries as they would bomb us. That8217s why no canadian car company and they took down Avro arrow and Nortel and now trying to take down BlackBerry. Make no mistake the US doesn8217t want Canada to become an economic power house. We have the resources the talent and man power to do anything. 180 Smoking Man on 03.19.15 at 12:39 pm 165 OMG on 03.19.15 at 9:43 am. Ha, damn it, Im busted. I boast about being a masterfull skilled lier on a weekly basis. Of course Im bull shiting about making 2 million in one day. It was actually a bit more. damn there I go again. Lying. I have issues. 750 contracts 1.27901.2518 An imposably.. Im A compulsive lier. some people collect stamps. Get over yourself.. 823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230823082308230 Over it already, just take it easy on the mendacities. Your excursions into the netherworlds bounce too much. The alien shit we can take, the womanizing, self-absorbed shit and such but get a hold of yourself when you start fabrications of colossal advances on the market. We will start to skip past your best shit. 201, the US will never bomb us. Get a grip, dude. 8220So the people that created the system, made billions off of managing it, marketing it and then spreading it across the planet by selling collateralized mortgage backed securities have no blame BS8221 I didn8217t say that. Both sides share some blame. I just get tired of hearing that people get into debt trouble because of the big greedy bankers, or because of the Government, or immigrants or whatever the reason is except their own selves. living in Lillooet, BC Nothing wrong with small towns IMO. I don8217t see the point in living in TO or Van unless you need to be there for employment. If moving to a smaller town, make sure there is accessible health care. I know a guy who retired to Princeton BC from Vancouver and it was great until he needed medical care and he had to drive to Kamloops repeatedly. Lillooet may be a bit too small for my taste. 207 Finland is FINNISH on 03.19.15 at 1:10 pm 82202 of my ETFs : 1) VUN (total US) 2) XIU ( tsx 60 ) both went down today while the indexes they follow went up. It doesnt make sense to me.8221 Can8217t speak for XIU, but VUN is unhedged and the US dollar dropped like a rock yesterday, so that8217s why VUN went down even though US markets were up. I suspect you like today8217s results better. 208 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:14 pm Appears that the MSM is slowly abandoning its current paymaster, the RE industry, and starting to make room for ads for collection agencies, grief, finance and marriage counselors. Good times ahead. 209 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:18 pm 164 Sheane Wallace on 03.19.15 at 9:32 am Your money is a credit note owned by the bank and due to the bank. You own nothing. It is an illusion. As for the gas prices, it is normal, the executives need to maintain that profit margin that justifies their bonuses and this is all that matters. BTW gas in Toronto is 1.00 today.8221 That vaporous 8220illusion8221 still seems to work really well for people and, amazingly, actually buys stuff. Has done for ages. I saw know-it-all corporate robots like you coming down the pipe at the tender age of 19. I had more amusing things to think about, however, fortunately decided to prepare accordingly and devoted attention to understanding value and building a vault of 8220illusion8221. As for so many 8220executives8221 and their screw-the-consumer profit margins, I always vote with my wallet and buy most everything at 50-90 below retail. 8220Only fools pay retail8221 is one of the tenets which can help create a lot of 8220illusion8221. The choice belongs to the consumer: either keep your 8220illusion8221 or hand it over to scummy little pinstripes. Your beloved executive army spends a gargantuan amount of time in the consumer optimization loop. They almost always get it wrong, resulting in constant course correction, price reductions and huge corporate waste. Btw, you8217re paying too much for your gas. RE: 203 tkid on 03.19.15 at 12:54 pm 201, the US will never bomb us. Get a grip, dude. بالضبط. Why would you bomb your puppet Yes, Babblemaster Lets review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole thing is BS. You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade. You ASSUME there will probably be another QE. You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume The word 8220assume8221 was used in the sense that since the Fed is providing no real candid guidance as to what they will do with rates (I listened to Yellen8217s double-speak and she basically said nothing of substance), my question is, 8220Are we to assume8221 what she will do. This is a perfectly reasonable question to ask since the Fed just speaks carefully crafted BS with no real substance. How could anyone listen to her and arrive at any other conclusion So, your attack is not is simply not warranted. Besides, my statements are ASSERTIONS based on my observations and reasoning. They are not 8220ASSUMPTIONS8221. The assumption is to take for granted that the Fed will raise rates So, let8217s take your comments one at a time: 8220You ASSUME the whole thing is BS.8221 No, JimH, I assert the whole thing is a BS dog and pony show with no real substance. 8220You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade.8221 No, same as above. 8220You ASSUME there will probably be another QE.8221 No, I8217m of the OPINION that there will PROBABLY be another QE. That8217s because I8217m of the belief that there is no real substantive recovery in the US, amongst other reasons. 8220You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal.8221 No. I didn8217t say that, or even hinted at that. Maybe, JimH, you8217re the one assuming that his track record is dismal. While some of his calls have been somewhat off, he was actually spot on about the 2008 debacle. So, his opinion deserves some respect. Regardless, he makes a lot of sense in terms of the unsustainability of this endless QE crap. He8217s the one telling us the emperor has no clothes and many people scoff at him because of that. They just don8217t want to hear it. 82308221In other words, he epitomizes success and has a house that demonstrates it.82218230 8211 HonGT 8230Advanced Individual in Contributing to the Construction of Pukou, Outstanding Private Entrepreneur of Nanjing, Star of a Honoured Enterprise, and Model Worker of Nanjing City8230 InOtherNews8230 PointGreyNeighbourhoodAssociation8230 RescindsChen8217s8230 RogueGardenOrnament8230 DevelopmentPermit8230 SCMP 8211 China sheds light on its quest to track down fleeing officials 82308221US federal prosecutors contend Zhao and Jianjun Qiao falsely claimed to be married and lied about their source of money to obtain US visas through an immigrant investor programme. An indictment unsealed on Tuesday in Los Angeles charges them with conspiracy and other crimes.82218230 214 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:51 pm 208 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:18 pm DELETED (Defamatory) 821282128212821282128212- Garth, understand the Italians are now off limits. But can we still stereotype the Germans. ) 215 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:52 pm I wonder how long it will take RE agents to retrain to work as collection officers 216 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 1:59 pm 184 industrial Guy on 03.19.15 at 11:21 am The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin (on top of the distributors margin) on parts they install In a word they can. Professionals can only charge what the market will bear. If no one was willing to pay the 100 margins . these prices would fall. Sounds like a great business . we should all get our gas fitters license. Do you prefer the US system where safety is driven by fear of a law suits and there are little or no requirements for professional competence. I trust carpenters to hammer wood together. Installing gas appliances not so much. Gas safety is not a straw dog . remember the LaSalle Heights Disaster disaster. They can, because the system is rigged against the customers, who don8217t even know that the markup is 100. Contractors are not even willing to break down the cost of parts without their markup, even if requested. Go figure the market does not regulate the price. By the way, fear of lawsuit is probably a more effective safety guard than any license. Licenses did not prevent to fall apart a mall in Canada, as we heard recently, causing fatalities. Stats is the only hard proof that which system is safer. But stop arguing about non CSA parts, non-licensed installers 8211 that8217s not the issue, as you are well aware of. The issue is that costumers should have the right and ability to know the price of the parts before markup and have the choice to purchase them from legit suppliers if the licensed technician wants to charge 100 markup. There you go: everything is as safe as before and the market makes the 100 markup disappear instantly. What no tracking chips in them8230what is wrong with you Pentagon Loses Track of 500 Million in Weapons, Equipment Given to Yemen (by Craig Whitlock, Washington Post) Military Weapons Given to Police have Gone Missing (by Steve Straehley, AllGov) Uncle Sams Favorite Corporations by Philip Mattera and Kasia Tarczynska March 2018 Identifying the Large Companies that Dominate Federal Subsidies goodjobsfirst. orgsitesdefaultfilesdocspdfUncleSamsFavoriteCorporations. pdf 214 Treasury Blonde on 03.19.15 at 1:52 pm I wonder how long it will take RE agents to retrain to work as collection officers 82308230 BEACH GIRL is that you 219 Bailing in BC on 03.19.15 at 2:19 pm Listen again 8211 That woman absolutely did not tell anyone to go back to where they came from so they can get their house. What she did say was 8220Why can8217t they go back up to where they were before, then we would probably be able to find a place8221. I believe that she was talking about mortgage rates. She understands that if mortgage rates were higher house prices would go down. 8211 One of our blog dogs perhaps Unfortunately the piece barely touched on it as it was one of the most interesting comments made. Also that 8220Asian woman8221 (and everyone else in that segment) sounded pretty Canadian to me. I hope you weren8217t suggesting that they should go back to where they came from. 220 Ralph Cramdown on 03.19.15 at 2:21 pm 212 Nemesis 8212 InOtherNews PointGreyNeighbourhoodAssociation RescindsChens RogueGardenOrnament DevelopmentPermit C8217mon, Nem. Clumsily photoshopped banner aside, that photo is obviously of Chip Wilson8217s place. 221 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.19.15 at 2:26 pm 175 Ralph Cramdown on 03.19.15 at 10:31 am Re: SCMP article8230 Well said. I have to agree with you. I have often wondered about our zeal for foreign money even if it means keeping our heads in the sand when looking at human rights violations. Sometimes unbecoming of what I grew up believing about Canada. اعلم اعلم. Violins are playing. But when I was young, I thought the Prime Minister sat next to God. Was a shock, believe me. ولكن أنا يضغط. Also, curious if the new home was purchased with money made and taxed in Canada. Still unclear if he is a New Canadian or a foreign investor. And yes it makes a difference. So much is thrown around here about how there is no appreciable foreign money owning real estate here. حسنا. Is he a new Canadian Or is he not Irrelevant. There is no law in Canada (or the US) preventing a non-citizen from buying property. 8212 Garth 222 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.19.15 at 2:39 pm Of course it8217s relevant. If he8217s not a new Canadian then foreign money is clearly huge in at least YVR. So lets stop pretending it isn8217t. He happens to have a lot of it but think of how many foreign investors maybe only have enough for a 5 mil dollar place. Yes I know there is no law against but isn8217t that the point that a lot of blog patrons bring up MAKE ONE. People on the street are feeling sold out. The regular schmoe, the one you8217ve been trying to educate, may be at risk of having the same thing happen to him and his vacation house in Arizona, but so what 8220Actually, Im inviting everyone over.8221 OMG NOW you8217ve done it8230 82202 of my ETFs : 1) VUN (total US) 2) XIU ( tsx 60 ) both went down today while the indexes they follow went up. It doesnt make sense to me 8220 There8217s an incredibly simple answer to your question 8212 XIU went 8220ex-dividend8221 yesterday. So 15 cents was deducted from the NAV, and should have been added to the dividends receivable account by your broker. 215 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 1:59 pm Your argument is so ridiculous, show me one business that is selling a product, any product that is not marked up how do you think businesses make money When you get your car fixed the part is marked up, your cost is not just labour, if you go to napa auto parts or any other part store to buy a part without a license you will get a part sold to you at retail, on the other hand the mechanic gets it at wholesale, that is the perk you get when you hold a license. when you buy a bananamango smoothie the fruits are marked up, that is the fact of business. 100 markup is chump change, many products see hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register Smokey don8217t take their shit man Of all people I know you don8217t care but just saying. I used to skip his posts, now I word search to find them and it8217s laughter (dressed with observation) guaranteed. Maybe it was the book, flak, or I just got his humour, but there8217s definitely been a change for the good on what he posts so cherish it 8220Dollar-a-day mortgage offered by B. C. condo developers8221 Yet another example of price cuts seen in the Vancouver RE market (and, of course, downplayedcovered up by the RE board and their 8220statistics8221 which fail to properly acknowledge the dramatic shift in the sales mix that we all know has occurred over the past 2 years). The cost of such incentive must be in the several tens of thousands of dollars. Really unfortunate that the Realtors aren8217t being fully forthright and up-front with the public with the state of the Toronto and Vancouver RE marketplaces and the declines seen there over the past 2 years. 50 Yes, the rents are skyrocketing in HamiltonDundasAncaster area. Vacancy rate is suddenly very low at 1 probably because people are priced out. Also, no one is interested in creating rentals8230maybe no money in that. It8217s just scary here8230and if you have pets, you are screwed. 229 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this wont end well on 03.19.15 at 3:10 pm If this story is any indication then the next federal budget is going to really be a doozy. When complaints come in continually (racist or not) the government should look into the matter with facts and figures (weather you believe in it or not). Who is buying and with what money This is not only for the Canadians but to protect money laundering from other countries. I believe in law if found guilty, one cannot answer with 8220I didn8217t know8221 does not apply but maybe only with government (only in democracy). Capitalism versus Communism 201 Pete on U. S. controlling us and 8220we have the resources, the talent and manpower.8221 B. C. (British Columbia) is rich in resources and the States would love to own it. If Alberta separates (as mentioned in media), how long to you think B. C. would last in Canada Oh, on the other hand, how long would our politicians last with Anderson Cooper on CNN (they watch every gesture). Interesting times ahead. When an activity (non-citizens buying property) is legal, why should the government investigate 8212 Garth 95 Smoking Man on 03.18.15 at 10:12 pm Woman is all Im saying. I have problems. اعرف. Honey Senica tomorrow night Ah shes smiling again. So the gambler is back at Seneca, Haven8217t been in a while going Sat with GF. :) 232 Sheane Wallace on 03.19.15 at 3:26 pm It all depends on the timeframe, just wait8230 233 Sheane Wallace on 03.19.15 at 3:28 pm It seems we have more in common then differences. It was a joke attempt8230 I loved your original posting. I migth trade mark it with your permission. Garth You said 8220First the massive (85 billion a month) bond-snorfling program was ended last autumn.8221 Maybe I don8217t understand but if they stopped buying when do they start selling or do they And what will happen if they start selling 235 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this wont end well on 03.19.15 at 3:58 pm A reprieve, sort of. Still these people need a union, 1.00 phr is patronizing. Fun to watch the cons squirm though. RosiForwardMovingKnowledgeEndsWell8230 TheBritishTemplate, Or8230 FiftyShadesOfSodomy8230 Osborne8217sBudget(WithALittleHelpFromSteveBell)8230 (Guardian) 8211 George Osbornes last budget before the election was full of giveaways (Guardian) 8211 Clinical commissioning groups are looking for private company to take on 1.2bn contract in biggest privatisation of NHS services yet 82308221Cancer care for patients in Staffordshire could be cut after it is taken over by profit-driven firms in the biggest privatisation of NHS services yet, campaigners are warning. Handing the 700m contract to the private sector could see hospices closed, less money being spent on treatment and patients left at risk of experiencing poor care, they claim. The fears follow the publication on Monday of a secret document prepared by the four local NHS clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in Staffordshire involved in the outsourcing deal to rouse interest in the contract among private firms.82218230 237 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 4:07 pm when you buy a bananamango smoothie the fruits are marked up, that is the fact of business. 100 markup is chump change, many products see hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register Learn to read8230 nobody was arguing against markup. Name me any equipment for residentalconsumer market with 8220hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register8221 on top of the distributor price. You are sloppy, I would never hire you as RE agent. 45 the show must go on on 03.18.15 at 8:06 pm 14 Sideshow Rob on 03.18.15 at 7:07 pm That steaming bag that Bernanke left on your desk wasnt lunch. Sideshow, that is funny lol. but true. Bernanke bailed before TSHTF. Bernanke would never have a problem refinancing his mortgage in canaduh, i8217d tell you what. I guess that says pretty much all about the difference between yanks and canada in terms of easy money. 73 Roial1 on 03.18.15 at 9:20 pm Garth, or anyone, Can you explain this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Compare those prices and when they were, to what our dollar was trading at. It will all come together8230 218 Bailing in BC Maybe you are right, just sounded odd when I heard it. No, I wasn8217t insinuating that at all. 241 Oil Is Sticky on 03.19.15 at 4:29 pm Okay8230..now its time to hear some 8220FEAR PORN8221 about why we must have rate hikes. 242 Oil Is Sticky on 03.19.15 at 4:36 pm 201 Pete on 03.19.15 at 12:40 pm john on 03.19.15 at 1:10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl. Gas 1.35 Oil 50 gas .90 Oil 43 gas 1.20 Let8217s see82308230.Tax me I8217m Canadian Canadians are sheep The only difference between Canada and Russia is the AK-47 175 Ralph Cramdown When they call you a racist it means they8217re losing the debate. Your points are well stated I8217d just add that whenever you hear about a Chinese anti-corruption drive you should take it with a grain of salt. These crusades against corruption are either (1) the Chinese version of boob bait for bubbas or (2) very selective action against corruptocrats which is actually a struggle between party factions. An enormous amount of money will continue to flow out of China 8212 everyone who8217s gotten some wants a foreign bolthole. 66 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.18.15 at 9:07 pm Rates will raise this year, guarantee it Perhaps third quarter but Garth is correct Sorry kiddies the free ride is over. Oh its going to be hell out there with all of the minions of house horny overstuffed people saying WTF happened Karma baby 823082308230 Well now that you8217ve sold your oakville mcmansion, I know you would be going to the dark side. Attention Basement Dwellers. You have a new member for your team, he8217s a pilot. Old all the same, perhaps he can be trained to fly drones. Drop bombs on real estate hawks. On behafe of all the proud Home owners of Greater Fool. We bid you farewell and good luck, with you new friends. 245 waiting on the westcoast on 03.19.15 at 4:52 pm 240 Oil Is Sticky on 03.19.15 at 4:36 pm 8220Lets see. Tax me Im Canadian Canadians are sheep The only difference between Canada and Russia is the AK-478221 and the will to use it8230 although, I am happy for those differences 236 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 4:07 pm Next time you order a smoothie ask them to break down the banana, mango, labour and all business costs, ask them what the mark up is8230LOL, the 8216WTF8217 look you get afterwards will reveal how ridiculous your whining is. Whiners like you get fired as clients not hired, a business practice followed by anyone successful. The 19-storey 144 Park building at the corner of Park Street and Allen Street West contains 149 units, 129 of which have been sold, but liens against the property mean Mady is unable to close the deals on the remaining 20 units or provide the current owners with titles to their property. 248 Bottom Feeder on 03.19.15 at 5:50 pm RE: 24 Oil is Sticky and 210 Pete Sorry number 24. Check your numbers better. I believe you are saying gasoline was 1.35 when oil was 100bbl and 1.20 when oil is 43bbl (like right now) There is no place in Canada where the numbers are in that proportion. If you think there is tell me the city and I will check it with Gas Buddy charts that are available at Gasbuddy. Enjoy your cheap gas. If I were to ask the agents in this office, some of them would say up to 75 of their business is based on oil, said Valarie Sampson, a real estate agent in the Cape Breton city of Sydney. Sampson says that though sales are slowing, she does not expect to see the full effect of the oil downturn until the spring, when sales are usually the busiest. The largest airport in Cape Breton saw passenger numbers fall by 1.9 in January and then 4.8 in February, a drop airport officials are attributing in part to oil worker related traffic. Helen MacInnis, the airports chief executive, said much of that decline followed a decision by the charter service Canadian North to halve the number of flights between Sydney and Fort McMurray. Ron MacDonald, general manager of Cape Breton-based dealership MacDonald Auto Group, said sales of the big, expensive pick-up trucks favored by oil sands workers have recently slowed down. Theyre not sure about their jobs right now, he said. 250 Oil Is Sticky on 03.19.15 at 6:33 pm 246 Bottom Feeder on 03.19.15 at 5:50 pm RE: 24 Oil is Sticky and 210 Pete Sorry number 24. Check your numbers better. I believe you are saying gasoline was 1.35 when oil was 100bbl and 1.20 when oil is 43bbl (like right now) There is no place in Canada where the numbers are in that proportion. If you think there is tell me the city and I will check it with Gas Buddy charts that are available at Gasbuddy. Enjoy your cheap gas. Cheap gas huh 1.20 is cheap You must be one of those 8220I make 100K working for the govt8221 people. Mark: The current regime, where the mortgage lenders will simply put the paper to the CMHC if it defaults, rather than deal with assumptions and dollar sales, guarantees a much different landscape than we saw in the 1980s though. Liquidation will be far more rapid and violent I predict than the relatively slow melt experienced in the 80s and 90s for Alberta RE. in Ontario, the banks have 8220power of sale8221. Presumably they must exercise it in order to have a claim. This takes some time (90 days I think). Are you talking about Alberta only Travelin Fool: China now claims that as much as 1.4 trillion dollars has gone unaccounted for and they are launching a massive audit of all COEs around the globe. which basically backs up this article by Michael Shedlock: Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who has a long-running bet against China, said that the country8217s credit bubble was starting to cause capital outflows to accelerate and may ultimately lead to weakness in the nation8217s currency. nonplused: The process by which oil was created is quite well understood thanks for that norstarr: so lets play the numbers and place bets on the fed budget: bet large on a reining in of CHMC look for lower principal purchase price limits. I8217d like to think so. 252 industrial Guy on 03.19.15 at 8:04 pm 215 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 1:59 pm Clearly business is a mystery to you. 8220The issue is that costumers should have the right and ability to know the price of the parts before markup and have the choice to purchase them from legit suppliers if the licensed technician wants to charge 100 markup.8221 No 8230. phone around. If all the licensed suppliers are charging the same price you have two choices. Pay that price or enroll in a licensed gas fitters course at the local College Let me make this clear. I don8217t want you installing or repairing your own gas appliances unless you have the proper training. When your house is launched into low orbit, it8217s going to destroy mine and probably the rest of the neighborhood. Sorry, no cheap parts for you. 253 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 9:38 pm 252 industrial Guy Clearly you have reading comprehension problem. Not once ever i did write or hinted that an unlicensed person should install the parts. 254 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 9:45 pm Smoothie Do you have a bridge to sell 255 industrial Guy on 03.20.15 at 1:17 am 253 margin disappear on 03.19.15 at 9:38 pm Your comment is funny in ways you can not imagine. It is you who simply doesn8217t understand how business operates. If I can make a 100 margin on a product. I will. If not, my competitor will. Only a fool would provide the client with a statement outlining the margins on each sale. That information isn8217t even shared with the Government. What is an acceptable margin 10. 15. 50 100 margin that8217s the market price. That8217s what the market will bear sir, so honestly, get over it8230. Well, the site is called the greater fool after all. 256 margin disappear on 03.20.15 at 11:25 am Maybe you just want to be entertaining when backpedalling randomly from one set of argument to an other. Now randomly switching from safety to lecturing 8220how business operates82308221. You just can8217t connect the dots how market price is rigged under non-transparent market conditions. That8217s fine. After all you are an industrial guy. The FRB stopped QE. However: ECB is doing QE. BoJ is doing QE. With China8217s economy slowing, PBoC may start doing QE. As you say, Garth, bond markets set long-term rates. But a couple of the developed world8217s major central banks are intervening in the bond market in manner similar to the Fed. Financial markets are global. Yield-hungry Europeans may end up buying bundles of Canadian mortgages and thanking God that the interest isn8217t negative. Party mode The moaning and dribbling experienced here yesterday when I suggested a 24-year-old male was no kid and should be ejected from his parents root cellar was, ah, interesting. Its hard to know now when adulthood starts. At thirty When you get your first condo Three decades before retirement When your mom stops washing your shorts Those who want twentysomethings treated as dependent children invariably have economic reasons. No jobs, they say. The kidll be homeless. So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility. Hard to see how helicopter parenting does much for experience, which is the foundation of maturity. Of greater concern, though, is what this often does to parental finances. The numbers shared here yesterday are a shocker almost half of all Canadians spend 100 of their incomes on houses and kids, putting nothing aside for the future. And half over 50 have just a fraction (one quarter) saved of what theyll need to retire a decade later. In other words, they aint going to make it. Its a fair bet a lot of them have Millennial things in the basement, contributing nothing to the home despite expensive educations. This underscores the fragility of household finance. With 1.75 trillion in mortgage and personal debt and the certainty of rate increases next year, plus a 3 savings rate, things arent going too well. No wonder wealth is drifting up to the investor class while debt drifts down to whats left of the middle class. The TSX gained 27 in the past year and the SampP is up 21, while inflation is 2 and houses grew an average of 5. Real estate also has massive buying and selling costs, ongoing property tax, insurance and maintenance payments and often strata fees. Unless there are sustained capital gains each and every year in the property market, things arent going to end well for a lot of people who have rolled the dice on a one-asset strategy. Almost 60 of Canadian households have mortgages. Thats 5.6 million families, while another 2.2 million have home equity lines of credit. The average mortgage rate is 3.2, and even at that historically-low level most folks are saving nothing. Just imagine when mortgages again average 5 8211 which is still a relative bargain. The Bank of Canada has crunched the numbers. Theyre ugly. If five-year mortgage rates average just 4 then mortgage payments would become the most unaffordable in 16 years. If interest rates rise 2 in general (and they will, without a doubt) then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them. Thats more than enough to push over the entire market. At the heart of this threat to the middle class is the notion that houses are investments (not places to live) so if you have one you dont need to invest in anything else. Thats how we got a 70 home ownership rate and a 3 savings rate. This is also what screwing up the kids heads. Adulthoods now equated with real estate ownership. Parents coddle the adultettes until they land a job, tell them renting is throwing their money away, and encourage them to leap from the basement to the 23rd floor even when that means shouldering big debt and living paycheque to paycheque. So much for moving three provinces away to land the best job and launch a career. The condo mavens know this. Like Vancouvers Bosa Properties. It just hatched a scheme to ensnare the young called an equity plan, to offer hope to Vancouverites who feel like theyll never be able to afford their own homes. A small (15) amount of monthly rent goes to loyalty points which can be used later as partial downpayment for a Bosa condo. After two years, it earns a 5,700 credit towards a unit so the buyer can start owning the same unit theyve been living in, and pay twice the monthly load Well, this pathetic blog has been warning people about the one-horse portfolio for years now. Millions have ignored me. They won8217t stop. This week Reuters ran a significant story on the real estate party raging in Canada that the rest of the world is watching like a head-on collision YouTube vid. Morningstar equity analyst Dan Werner summed things up pretty well: 8220If you start looking at your house as an investment class, as something else you should be investing in rather than the stock market, you run into the danger of being exposed to some of the excesses going on in the system. There is this euphoria when you are within an up-housing market. We fell into it that here. I don8217t want to say Canadians are in a party mode, but they are thinking, 8216What can possibly go wrong if prices keep going up8217 It8217s going to end badly.8221 Of course it will end badly. Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do. What could possibly go wrong 218 comments darr Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933. 32 David Lee on 09.10.14 at 7:24 pm 3rd attempt 153 Mark (yesterdays post): They talk as though a housing correction hasnt even begun. Even though evidence of such having been in progress for more than a year now is quite abundant. Again: not a challenge, just looking for some help in Vancouver. Please point (e. g. by providing links) to where you are getting your data from such that you can say that evidence is quite abundant. سيكون موضع تقدير أي مساعدة. So there you have it folks. Mark annoyingly replies to a dozen or more posts every single day. Even posts where he is asked to please not post his unwanted opinion. Actually he doesnt reply to posts he voices his opinion on just about every subject matter that one can think of. He is just that smart But above you can see a post actually asking for Mark to reply and . crickets. So Mark please put up or shut up. Here again is the request. Please point (e. g. by providing links) to where you are getting your data from such that you can say that evidence is quite abundant.. Garth. I think total household credit in Canada is closer to 1.75 trillion. 4 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.11.14 at 5:35 pm Your kids are NOT entitled to a dam thing They are NOT entitled to anything 8220FREE8221 from you after the age of majority. No free room, no free board, and no FREE higher education. That said, if you wish to assist with things after the age of majority (18 here) it is your right, but NOT your responsibility. The best balanced young people are those that learned to balance a checkbook, job, and earned their own way early. I8217m proof. Not a fan of higher education, but dam sure a fan of working smart, saving early, and not listening to well meaning, but usually mis-directed advice. My 43 year old colleague just told me a couple hours ago that: 8220I will only leave my parents8217 basement (where he pays 200month) when I can afford to buy a 2BD downtown apartment in Vancouver with 20 down-payment to avoid CMHC fees8221 He lives with his wife and also mentioned that their parents took out a LOC for them, secured against the house of course so that they can pay off 17000 in CC debt. He actually thinks that they are doing great now that they don8217t have CC debt, he thinks of themselves almost as being well off :) Shocking. I guess it will take them another 20 years to scrap that down-payment together, or of course they can just ask the parents to get a bigger LOC. Wow, just Wow. How do you feel about upcoming foreclosure sales in Toronto and Vancouver Will deals be made How do you see it spanning out over the next few years Don8217t fall for that. 8212 Garth I have found it interesting in life, that often the most successful young people I have had the pleasure to meet, received very little from their parents, beyond the necessities of life, encouragement and vocal support. Also interesting that a past study conducted by Harvard University among their own top students, revealed the common theme that the intelligent, creative, high achievers all had parents who set normal guidelines, but beyond those they allowed their children the freedom to make their own choices. Helicopter parenting isn8217t healthy for anyone involved, and has the potential to be financially devastating for people trying to fund their own retirement, while still supporting their adult children82308230.and possibly still looking after elderly parents. The greatest gift we can give our kids is independence and freedom82308230..not the down payment on a huge debt. 9 common sense on 09.11.14 at 5:59 pm I sent my kid away to university in a distant city at 18. He has been on his own ever since. We paid his tuition through grad school, but he8217s had to work to pay for himself82308230sometimes working 2 jobs plus school. We always pushed him to work harder when he called home experiencing youthful reluctance. He8217s independent now. has a small business in the entertainment industry, wouldn8217t think of moving home. I8217m proud of ourselves for having been tough parents. We got a stand alone winner out of it. The stigma of living in mom8217s basement or paying 1,500 per month for a mortgage that will only increase in 4 years. Decisions, decisions. 11 Casual Observer on 09.11.14 at 6:05 pm 8230so the buyer can start owning the same unit theyve been living in, and pay twice the monthly load I8217ve tried to explain this to people but they just don8217t get it. They usually say, 8220Well at least you8217ll own something at the end of paying your mortgage. When you rent, you end up owning nothing.8221 I say, 8220I8217ve run the numbers and they say I8217m further ahead if I rent and invest the difference.8221 To which they say, 8220Yeah, but you8217ll have to pay rent for the rest of your life.8221 I explain that you have to pay either way. Monthly costs don8217t disappear just because you own your home free and clear. They only look at the mortgage payment vs. rent and don8217t realize that even if you 8220own8221 your dwelling, you still have to pay property taxes, strata fees, maintenance, etc. 8220So Mark please put up or shut up.8221 Why don8217t you Asking the same darn question when the response was already given to you many times previously really is little more than trolling. It is simply not my job to educate you on the differences between mean and median. Or on various statistical concepts. Canada has a significant number of institutions of higher learning for which you can go study if you are unclear of these concepts, or the effects of sampling in statistical analysis. Of course it will end badly. Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do. I8217d personally say its a self-fulfilling prophecy. Misguided people invested heavily into housing, rather than into equity and business formation. The kids hence, can8217t get jobs because industry is comatose and hasn8217t hired in any significant numbers since the last millennia. Hence, they8217re stuck in the basements, which further reinforces the need for boomers to hold excess real estate and to put rationalization of their lives on hold (although I8217m not convinced that many would be eager sellers). The problem here clearly is in the 900B of CMHC subprime mortgage guarantees emitted to get the housing bubble off the ground, rather than free market allocation of capital. And Garth is right, it won8217t end well for many, but there are some excellent opportunities coming to be a beneficiary of the inevitable snap-back. 13 dipstick running russia on 09.11.14 at 6:09 pm You got to love capitalism One generation works hard and if lucky accumulates wealth. Second generation if properly brought up maintains that wealth Third generation spends it8230 Teach your kid skills, to reposes wealth from spoiled lazy lululemonized starbuckers of today8230. On the other note got email from Russia and VP himself: Dear Garth, i am so sorry that your portfolio is not what you would like to be. You calling me names strike me into my hart, and i decided to : Sign off all oil fields to Imperial oil All financial institutions to Goldman Saks and we will as of tomorrow start using US dollar we will never question US gold reserves. We will give control of Yakutia and all diamond mines to DeBeers also Titanium mines all 18 of them you can have if you want.. 8220If interest rates rise 2 in general (and they will, without a doubt) then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them. Thats more than enough to push over the entire market.8221-Garth 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 I do, have my doubts about a 2 rate increase. Growth is just way to weak. I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple (I8217d have to buy one) the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. What say you Garth, not trying to be a dick, would just really like a free ounce of Gold. ) 8220I guess it will take them another 20 years to scrap that down-payment together, or of course they can just ask the parents to get a bigger LOC. Wow, just Wow.8221 Your 43-year-old colleague, believe it or not, is likely in better financial shape than most. Negative equity means, in many cases, renters, newborns, and even that homeless guy begging on the street, are in fact significantly more wealthy than those living in houses which are worth less than the mortgage. The credit card debt and asking the folks to pay it is pretty despicable though. 16 OttawaguyRenting Worried but not too worried still a worrier but look on the brightside on 09.11.14 at 6:16 pm How ugly will it get I see the house horned all around me. Couples now thinking about 8220investment8221 property down south with equity they have in their house here (5 8211 7 year ownership) Rent and you can go anywhere. Rent and you don8217t worry about the fact a piece of the chimney blew off the house today. 8220how will you retire without a house8221 She asked me Oh my goooodness. HOW will I retire8230 17 Happy Renting on 09.11.14 at 6:19 pm Is it that parents make the family home too comfortable, that adult kids want to stay I was eager to fly from the nest and have my own place so I could have my own space, have friends or a date over, and do whatever I wanted. Parents with boomerang kids, nag your children more. That sure worked on me. 18 FormerSaskie on 09.11.14 at 6:20 pm Age 43, married and living in parents basement. يا الهي. Horrible for all of them. 19 A Yank in BC on 09.11.14 at 6:21 pm My parents were financially upper middle-class, but never had anything more than linoleum on the floor of their kitchen, with Formica countertops and plain-faced appliances. Eating out was perhaps twice a month at most. Their happiness in life (and with each other) just didn8217t depend on spending money they didn8217t have on luxury items in a hopeless pursuit of the 8220perfect life8221. How sad it is that this generation seems to think the opposite. 20 Happy Renting on 09.11.14 at 6:22 pm 4 Retired Boomer 8211 WI on 09.11.14 at 5:35 pm Careful, Kylie the Millennial is coming for you. You can8217t call someone dependent and entitled when they (gasp) pay their own cellphone bill. 21 Casual Observer on 09.11.14 at 6:23 pm 8220Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933. This was written during a time when the US was on the gold standard. The US Gov8217t could not have engaged in the same amount of money 8220printing8221 that is going on throughout the world today. While Central Bankers have massively expanded the monetary base, it has not been inflationary (besides asset prices) because of the collapse in the velocity of money. If velocity stays low, things will remain tilted towards deflation, but as soon as velocity picks up, inflation will be the bigger concern. Oil might not be as high as it8217s been over the last 2 years. You might have noticed oil stocks taking a hit lately. Could that impact Alberta8217s economy and cool their real-estate prices 23 crossbordershopper on 09.11.14 at 6:28 pm why save anything for what retirement who cares. i do taxes for 2000 people a year, in the seniors catagory, i have millionaires(basically paid off house plus cottage) 80 year olds worried everyday about their portfolio etc. Then i have ivan, worked at the steel mill, 30 years, gets 2.5k month plus goverment cheques and saved, well zero. i asked you should be rich or atleast have a house. he said, i had a real good time in life, wine women and song and worked for it. he said i came to canada in 61 with a suitcase and i am leaving this world with the same suitecase. ivan is funny, the old widows with money are quite borring. 24 Doug in London on 09.11.14 at 6:29 pm These Boomer parents should know better. Having seen real estate corrections before (I remember one in the early 1980s and another in the early 1990s) they should be advising their Millennial kids that another is long overdue whether they live with their parents or not. Canada should introduce a program to ease affordability for lower income families like they have here in the UK: For some reason I found the term 8220adultettes8221 hilarious. 27 Steve French on 09.11.14 at 6:30 pm I8217ve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines. What should I do with it I do, have my doubts about a 2 rate increase. Growth is just way to weak. I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple (Id have to buy one) the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. But what about the banks simply deciding to pull away from the mortgage market (because of increasing risk) The BoC doesn8217t need to change its policy rate for mortgage rates to rise. I agree, in principle, that policy rates are likely to remain suppressed for a long time to come. But as time goes on, mortgage rates are likely to rise as risk aversion comes back to the RE lending marketplace, and other asset classes present themselves as being hotter investment prospects than RE stuck in a secular decline. 29 OttawaguyRenting Worried but not too worried still a worrier but look on the brightside on 09.11.14 at 6:42 pm 11 8220They only look at the mortgage payment vs. rent and dont realize that even if you own your dwelling, you still have to pay property taxes, strata fees, maintenance, etc8221 There is a piece of the chimney in the back yard of the house today. D Ain8217t my problemO. LOLs That has been my biggest surprise going from Ownership to Renting.. Savings on upkeep I don8217t own power tools. Home Depot Lowes WTF is that Renting includes 8211 Weekends not worrying about the grass Weeknights not trying to 8220keep up with the Jones8221 by interlocking the 8220walk way8221 Hey LOSER that interlocked 3X4 walk way.. HHAHAHAHHAHAA I bet your wife thought it would loook awesome What a waste you cow off to slaughter Renting also means that when the time comes to move cause I need to make more somewhere else or as my boss put it 8220you pick the city. we will send you8221 I am goooooone in 3 shakes As a 23 year old prairie kid, where does this sense of an entitled youth come from Myself and my friends all have well paying jobs, are currently renting apartments and job prospects look great. Is this current millennial situation you8217re talking about only an OntarioBC thing It8217s fine if a 24-year-old lives with family8230if she pays market room and board cost (with the exception of a disabled individual.) I8217m 26. I never had a problem finding a job 8211 since the age of 18, I was never unemployed for longer than 3 weeks (not even in Qubec during the recession and je suis anglophone.) Because I worked my bum off during university, not only did I have a full resume which helped me land my 8220adult8221 job, it also ensured I had no student loans (my dad paid my 70month cell bill while I was in uni, other than that I was self-supporting.) I now earn the same as my parents combined income. If I visit for longer than a week, I buy a load of groceries8230just like I would do if I stayed at a friends house for a week. It8217s just called being a self-supporting, self-respecting, non-mooching adult. 27 Steve French on 09.11.14 at 6:30 pmIve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines. What should I do with it Safe Come up with an extra 110k total 150k and buy into Romspon mortgage fund, see above link. 10 a year, coupons paid monthly. Got 2 big bills in that one. خطر. Learn to count cards, black Jack8230 Or wait for batman, then short the SampP might be awhile. Stay away from Forex8230 Only Alians with Esp can win at that game8230. Totally agree Garth. 24ADULT, so many think they are still Kids. I think in part it8217s due to the time (and often parents8217 money) they spend 8216educating8217 themselves. My eldest who self financed her way through university ended up with 2 degrees, she now works in a research lab making diddly squat the last I heard. But then she doesn8217t have to worry about money right since her BF does make money. This is not a gender slight btw, I believe in equality of the genders, so many don8217t. 34 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 6:57 pm You reap what you sow. Maybe some of these parents should take a good long look in the mirror and ask themselves, who really is to blame for the state of their adult childs finances. There are an abundance of opportunities out there all one needs to take advantage of them is a good attitude. A parent has a whole lot to do with the general state of mind their child adopts. Too many postpone costs. Too many are too horny for other things right now than to make sacrifices toward banking for something that will be more important to them in the future. You can pay now or you can pay later. Clearly those with adult children still at home have not yet done their job in raising them in the first place. The Bank of Canada has crunched the numbers. Theyre ugly. If five-year mortgage rates average just 4 then mortgage payments would become the most unaffordable in 16 years. If interest rates rise 2 in general (and they will, without a doubt) then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them. Thats more than enough to push over the entire market. 8211 Garth I hope you are not gloating over the prospect because, trust me, if that plays out the way you suggest it, ultimately, will not be good for anyone you included. I agree, interest rates are, eventually, going to head North of twice what they are. Of that there is no question its just a matter of time. We know its coming. Do you really think they will allow, all things being equal, the consequence of that. ليس فرصة. Rising interest rates are without a doubt the Black Swan looming on the horizon. I say Black Swan merely because everyone seems to simply be looking past it. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, dealing with me who is considering a purchase of which more than 50 is going to be financed I ALWAYS tell Do your budget calculations based on at least a 7.0 interest rate. If they balk I show them that rates were in excess of 20 in 1982. It happened then and it can happen again. Worst case they have some slack in their budget for a date night here and there. But the bottom line is THEY wont let what would happen happen. They might not be so proactive as to prevent it but rest assured they will be attentive enough to FIX it. And like last time it will cost us all, collectively, billions. I bet Ivan has paid into a private pension at the steel mill for the 30 years he worked there, which likely makes up the bulk of his 2500m. Most people now do not have that unless they work for the public sector. I do agree with you that there are a lot of seniors out there that will leave millions to their kids. After a lifetime of scrimping and saving it hard for them to get into spending mode. I know of a couple of cases and the boomer kids are having a great time spending all their inheritance. There parents would be rolling over in their graves. 36 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 7:09 pm Today8217s society is hooked on a drug and that drug8217s called 8220credit8221. It8217s what allows them to escape the reality of this Ponzi scheme economy. Almost makes you wonder if it actually is a conspiracy. Free ounce of Gold. Any takers See post 14. 38 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 7:15 pm 23 crossbordershopper on 09.11.14 at 6:28 pm Ivan is a DUDE who has it figured out. Good on you Ivan -) 39 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 7:23 pm 14 Blacksheep on 09.11.14 at 6:09 pm I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple (Id have to buy one) the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. The Bank of Canada may not have anything to do with it. The BOND MARKET is the mother of everything that happens. تحقق من ذلك. The stock market is but a pimple compared to the bond market mountain. That aside, you have picked a mere 24 months so your bet may well be safe. Beyond that8230 40 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 7:26 pm What instrument was most influential in the defeat of Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo The bond market. 41 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 7:27 pm No seriously, check out the backstory 42 NostyVlad the Snugglebombed on 09.11.14 at 7:33 pm 7 Ardy on 09.11.14 at 5:55 pm 8212 8220The greatest gift we can give our kids is independence and freedom..not the down payment on a huge debt.8221 Well said. Our youngest left home when he was about 19 (30 now), and when he saw the money he earned, chose to stay there (Alberta). Our eldest moved out a few months ago, and they8217re both well set up. Let kids make their own mistakes and learn from them. We did 147 Kenchie on 09.11.14 at 8:51 am 8212 8220China is a beacon of economic stability in a profligate world8221 This world is a highly-dysfunctional cornucopia of paradoxes, highs lows, heavens hells etc. and it is supposed to be that way. For example: Freedom Scotland, Catalans, Texas and Alaska China may be down on the one hand, but Russia and China8217s new SWIFT alternative is yet another step away from the PD, along with the newly-created New Development Bank Inflation 8211 63.4 Which South American country has a shitload of oil Destroy the country8217s then feed off the carcass. 163 Smoking Man on 09.11.14 at 12:11 pm 8212 8220Some very bad ass people in the world.8221 The School of Hard Knocks. Means the sometimes painful education one gets from life8217s usually negative experiences 8212 it is what8217s needed and it8217s what memories are made of. Coddling accomplishes nothing. A new report out today from the CD Howe Institute suggests Canadians are doing better at saving for retirement than most people think: You know Garth that you and Bank of Canada are part of the filthy. greedy system8230. and this illusionary system will fall8230.soon8230 And your dumb, childish blog will disappear Let me guess. 24. Live at home. Mom does your shorts. MA in Egyptology. 8212 Garth The bankers get bailed out from the financial crisis that many of them helped create, but the kid in the basement (who8217s trying to save money to overcome the bubble it created) doesn8217t get any love What gives. Time for our leaders to set a better example Leave the poor kid alone. Canadian dollar sinks amid amazing race to the bottom for world currencies Yesterday, for example, Capital Economics forecast that the Canadian currency will end the year at 89 cents, and next year at 86 cents. Also yesterday, BMO forecast that the loonie, which has lost about 6 per cent over the last year, will sink to 88 cents in 2018. Just today, chief economist Craig Wright of Royal Bank of Canada predicted an 87-cent loonie this year, with further erosion to 85 cents next year as the U. S. dollar gains and interest rates start to climb. Of late, noted BMOs chief economist, Douglas Porter, the Canadian dollar has weakened on a stronger U. S. currency and the decline in oil prices. 49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.14 at 7:51 pm Downtown Van a few weeks back. Waitress serving us at a pub starts chatting. She8217s mid 308217s. lots of 8216tats8217 on the arms, loves waitressing. No plans for the future. Lives paycheque to paycheque (bummed a smoke off my friend). Very skinny, twitchy, looks like the beginning of a crack addict8230 (believe me I know crack addicts) Anywho, nice girl. Last weekend my friend is back drinking at the bar. This girl is off shift and is 8220Smoking Man hammered8221. Gooned. Her parents are there, its her birthday. Her parents confided to my friend that they give her everything. Car, free rent condo, pay her bills, etc. So whats this girl do with her own money Spends it ALL on drugs. Parents. Killing her with kindness. Tough love needed. ShockingSimplyShocking OverEducated8230 UnemployedMillenials8230 Expecting2ndChild8230 StillLivingInMum8217s8217Basement8217Suite: PaeanToIvan8230 NoHelicopterParentingHere8230 JustWeatherBalloons8230 8221HowFarCanAnAverageJoeGo8221 SpoilerAlert:TheVillainessIsA8230 Redacted 8220You have picked a mere 24 months so your bet may well be safe. Beyond that82308221 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 I said 8220I8217d really like a free ounce of Gold.8221 not, I really want to give away an ounce of Gold. 52 TEMPORARY Foreign Prime Minister on 09.11.14 at 7:53 pm 822082308230.No wonder wealth is drifting up to the investor class while debt drifts down to whats left of the middle class82308230..8221 Just as the Canadian government was lobbied to do. Good thing Harper spent millions locating an old wooden bathtub at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean. That8217s got to be worth something in the pockets of Canadians. 8220Adulthoods now equated with real estate ownership. Parents coddle the adultettes until they land a job, tell them renting is throwing their money away, and encourage them to leap from the basement to the 23rd floor even when that means shouldering big debt and living paycheque to paycheque. So much for moving three provinces away to land the best job and launch a career.8221 Totally agreed, Mr. Turner. A child of immigrants, and having the majority of my millennial friends being the same, there is definitely groupthink going on about house-ownership being the holy grail of status. I blame immigration (joke) I noticed early on that my white friends, who are multi-generational Canadian, almost all moved out of their parents8217 houses within the first year, and up to 3 years, since graduating high school. Meanwhile, those of us whose parents hail from the Eurasian continent had a vastly different post-high school experience. Both parental strategies have their benefits and costs. I was definitely a late-bloomer. But now, I am kicking many of my friends8217 ass, financially-speaking. So that8217s why I have some sympathy for this 24 yo kid. PS: My family is a microcosm of the cultural dichotomy: my Western European parent was happy to kick us out at age 18, but my Asian parent said no, it8217s a waste of money. Funnily enough, my Euro parent blamed my Asian parent for being too soft on us 54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.14 at 7:54 pm Yo. 8220Not an Economist8221 Did you read 31 Nattie Seems to have figured out how to 8220make it822182308230. Have YOU figured it out yet Judging from the comments by 8220Funny that8221 on my question (re: pointing me in the right direction for the 8220ample evidence8221 you8217ve mentioned in previous posts), I gather other bloggers here may have some issues with you. I8217m honestly trying to get some data which I can use to justify my position on housing in Vancouver (I sold my house here in 2018 and I am waiting). In your response to 8220Funny that8221, you indicate that you8217ve given the response to my question previously. Please let me know around which dates you provided this response and I will search through Garth8217s archives to find them myself. I8217m guessing from your mention of 8220mean and median8221 in your reply to 8220Funny that8221 that you8217re implying one or the other is used by the real estate boards when it suits their purposes AND that with the mean being higher than the median, the distribution is skewed by the few sales of very high priced homes (e. g. in Vancouver West) and that the weight of the distribution is a the lower end. Is that what you8217re saying Again, any help would be appreciated. To rephrase it for Reuters 8220the people with homes will lose a lot less than the people holding stocks8221 Both will take a bath but the ones in stocks will be wiped out entirely. 21 Casual Observer. شكرا للإستجابة. There8217s lot to learn about this economic stuff. That8217s why I keep on checking out this pathetic blog. Its going to be interesting to see if the zero interest rates and money printing policies implemented by the major central banks of the world in response to the global financial crisis can solve the two major problems we in Canada and the rest of the developed world have, which I heard described nicely by a financial analyst on a money show on a Vancouver, B. C. radio station back in December, 2018. 8220Way more money has been borrowed than will ever get repaid8221 8220Way more promises have been made by governments and so on than will ever be kept8221 I call them losers. These are the people that are unwilling to move to where the work is so instead they milk off ma and pa The crazy part is their parents defend them, as if adults needs their parents defence I swear this country has raised a generation of pansies, its pathetic. 59 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 8:08 pm 35 Omg on 09.11.14 at 7:09 pm 23 crossbordershopper I do agree with you that there are a lot of seniors out there that will leave millions to their kids. After a lifetime of scrimping and saving it hard for them to get into spending mode. I know of a couple of cases and the boomer kids are having a great time spending all their inheritance. There parents would be rolling over in their graves. Those parents maybe should have taken a page out of Ivan8217s book and lived it up a little instead of saving and waiting for a day that may never come . 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:08 pm 8220Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a) other ASOE professors, such as F. A. Hayek, and b) Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c) pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. 8221 61 -) aka Devils Advocate on 09.11.14 at 8:11 pm 50 Blacksheep on 09.11.14 at 7:52 pm Buzzingo. You slammed me -) OT 9.11 Flight 93 We visited the National Memorial Site of Flight 93 in Pennsylvania. There were 33 passengers and 7 crew members on board. This flight was delayed on the tarmac for 25 minutes before takeoff, causing it to be out of sync with the other hijacked planes. Thus, when the plane was hijacked 46 minutes into the flight, the passengers had the added burden of already knowing the fate of the other planes. They decided to fight back. An unlikely collection of people to be fighting terrorist among them an older couple, a pregnant woman, three students, five flight attendants. Ordinary people taking extraordinary action. They fought for 6 minutes, keeping the plane from reaching its target, the Nations Capitol. The plane crashed and disintegrated on impact. It was a windy day, the debris field a mile and a half wide. Only 8 percent of remains were recovered. The coroner ordered the impact site to be covered over as befitting a grave. Rest in peace flight 93. Lesser known: Seven people were working outside on a hilltop when the plane came screaming 400 feet overhead, upside down, and at 563 mph slammed into the field below. When these people close their eyes at night, I pray that they too, rest in peace. A single boulder acts as headstone, marking the point of impact. Stark, somber, heartbreaking. 63 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:35 pm 140 yesterday 8220Why didnt she become at teacher 81k a year is considered a middle class salary. Do you think teachers dont deserve to belong to the middle class The reason eces get paid so little is because they are only qualified to teach jksk.8221 Deserve Unions are designed to extract above market wages. They are particularly successful when negotiating with governments. (Even FDR did not believe there should be public sector unions). The question is what would teachers salaries be if set by the market. 2 Speak for yourself. Mark8217s comments are among the best on this blog. I am 31 and a 8220millennial8221. As for some of these other millennials on this blog talking about how successful they are, how much money they make, or how self sustaining they are blah blah. You guys know that we on this blog in no way represents our entire generation right Our generation has got to be the dumbest that has ever lived. It is our sense of entitlement. We lack any sense of humility, and we all believe we are some star. Sort of like the grandstanding that is evident in your posts. If TSHTF, our entire generation would curl up into a ball in the corner of the room with our thumbs in our mouths. Garth is correct. Sir Garth wrote: 8220And half over 50 have just a fraction (one quarter) saved of what theyll need to retire a decade later. In other words, they aint going to make it. 8221 When fewer than 50 have saved enough for retirement, all that happens in a 8220democracy8221 is that the majority will take it from the minority. That is the way this country is run now. The fable of the grasshopper and the aunts is becoming the truth. Just look at Ontario. We have the Greenbelt Act, the Niagara Escarpment Act, the Natural Heritage Initiative, and the Oak Ridges Moraine Act. All of these Provincial initiatives, just took from the existing land owners and gave to the public majority. Millions of dollars in assets just eviscerated. What makes you think that this will not happen with investments What point is there in investing if the majority just takes it away 66 Granny Annie on 09.11.14 at 8:40 pm Blog dawgs, I need your help. Where do I get information about the selling price of a property in Brampton if it wasn8217t listed on MLS and sold privately (within the the last two years). This may have been covered previously, but any guidelines will be appreciated. 67 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.11.14 at 8:42 pm This chart compares single family home sales totals (January through August) of recent years to that of 2007, which was, at best, an average year for Greater Victoria. 2018s SFH sales pace is 31 behind 2007s pace (population adjusted). Slow sales always points to a weak, unhealthy housing market. Slow sales was a common denominator among all housing markets that underwent major price corrections throughout the US and the rest of the world in recent years. The relationship between slow sales and falling prices is well-established. Victorias price decline (that began in 2018) will continue. For SFHs, the downward price path has been re-established in Victoria after the usual seasonal price bump. In August, the local boards SFH benchmark price was down 1.3 from July. Examples of monthly price declines (by area): Victoria: -1.1 Oak Bay: -1.5 Saanich East: -1.2 Saanich West: -1.8 North Saanich: -1.1 Sidney: -1.9 Victorias housing market is in deep trouble. House prices in other Canadian cities have increased significantly since 2018 as a result of historically low (emergency) interest rates. That prices have decreased significantly in Victoria since 2018 should be alarming to every Victoria mortgage holder. As of June 2018, house prices in Las Vegas were 42.5 below their 2006 peak level and prices in Phoenix were 35.5 below peak. Years after hitting bottom, prices in many American cities are still well below peak levels and prices across the US in general may be starting to move lower again. Housing bubbles always go through major, multi-year price corrections. It isnt different in Victoria. Victorias housing market is extremely overvalued. A quick look at house prices in Las Vegas makes this clear. (min. 3 beds, 2 baths, min. 1,800 sq. ft. of primary (above ground) living space, attached double garage). A similar house in Victoria would cost at least 700 K. Girls and guys, Victorias housing market is weak and prices have been declining in a well-established downtrend since 2018. It would be a bad idea to buy now when much lower prices are on the way. Prices in Victoria will fall much more as house prices across Canada fall. Wait for that to happen. Until next time 8211 Cheers Did you know any body on flight 93 69 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:43 pm 152 yesterday 8220PS: Im not talking about the value of real work having value as being wrong. There is much more to ASOE than real value of work. The main problem I have with ASOE, in general, is the fixation on hard currency as being superior than a market-based floating currency. How can they profess to be market-fundamentalists but be supportive of an inflexible exchange rates (fixed to gold) and despises price discovery on exchange rates They cant, its called cognitive dissonance.8221 Truly a foolish comment. 8220Stop cooking with cheese8221 71 souvereigninternational on 09.11.14 at 9:03 pm I just drove by 6 houses for lease in small dowtown TO neighbourhood. Is this a sign of market breaching the top Can8217t sell for what I want - gonna lease instead and wait in other news: suprisingly despite goldsilver metal spot down today, all my junior miners are up 5 on average. Is this a sign of a bottom 72 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 9:05 pm 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:08 pm Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a) other ASOE professors, such as F. A. Hayek, and b) Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c) pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. Links please 8212- There will be no links from Kenchi because it8217s not true and he8217s a liar. And even if there are any arguments against Mises by modern day opposing Keynesian economist, they can all be easily destroyed if one reads and understand the work and theories layed out in his magnum opus, Human Action. Mises was born in 1881 and died 1973, i typed that wrong yesterday. People like Kenchi often make up slanderous remarks and dismissive unbacked statements about Mises and Ayn Rand because their economic and philosophical arguments can not be beat by arguing against them and hence is why they always attack the person and not their ideas or theories. To say Ayn Rand was an excessive radical against government ust because she experience the rise of the red army and communism in Soviet Russia and the destruction and death of her society is a little simplistic dismissal of her vast body of work, and if one reads her work, you8217ll see that her experience was a large part of the inspiration and driving force that compelled her to greatness. 66 Granny Annie on 09.11.14 at 8:40 pm Where do I get information about the selling price of a property in Brampton if it wasnt listed on MLS and sold privately (within the the last two years). 82128212 A lawyer can access the title records through software most seem to have, or maybe if you visit the land registry office. Have been involved in estate property transfers (wills) and that was the way all the history and information (including amount of money involved) was available. 49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.14 at 7:51 pmDowntown Van a few weeks back. Waitress serving us at a pub starts chatting. Shes mid 30s. lots of tats on the arms, loves waitressing. No plans for the future. Lives paycheque to paycheque (bummed a smoke off my friend). Very skinny, twitchy, looks like the beginning of a crack addict (believe me I know crack addicts) Anywho, nice girl. Last weekend my friend is back drinking at the bar. This girl is off shift and is Smoking Man hammered. Gooned. Her parents are there, its her birthday. Her parents confided to my friend that they give her everything. Car, free rent condo, pay her bills, etc. So whats this girl do with her own money Spends it ALL on drugs. Parents. Killing her with kindness. Tough love needed. 8230823082308230 I disagree, everyone8217s different, I know many young out off control young people that snapped out of and went on to run their own huge business. Just because your programming tells you that girl needs help. Doesn8217t mean it8217s so. Why do I exhibit and enjoy self destructive behaviour, taking to myself out loud on many occasions I figured it. I8217m board of a standard life, success cones easy to me. It8217s not challenging at all. Perhaps I want to box myself into a tomb. only for the amazing thrill of trying to figuring out how to get out of it. Whether I get out alive or dead is insignificant. It8217s the fun of beating huge odds. It8217s what being alive is all about. It8217s demented, I know. But shit like that makes me happy. SmokingMan8217sInvestmentAdvice8230 Or, TheProblemWithDoorNumber28230 AccordingToAlbert, RobertampJohnny: NoteToHommeDuTabagisme: Worked for me, though8230 Albeit, I only did it once and I was simply trying to make a point about EideticMemory . Of course, in those days8230 they weren8217t dealin8217 from 8Decks. Just between the two of us, when it comes to PartyMode, OldSchoolVegas was 8211 like 8211 WayMoreFun. Just ask Bugsy: en. wikipedia. orgwikiBugsySiegel If you don8217t mind kicking out your son or daughter at 18, watch this video. Shelley Lubben: Ex-Porn Star8217s testimony (The ugly truth behind the porn industry) 25 Londoner on 09.11.14 at 6:29 pm 8220Canada should introduce a program to ease affordability for lower income families like they have here in the UK: It8217s an interesting proposition, and I don8217t doubt that some people have used it correctly to their long-term benefit. But I don8217t care for the shared ownership program, from a ideological perspective rather than the practical attributes of it. My issue is that this there are already so many ways in which the gov8217t encourages homeownership. Adding another one that directly uses public funds (particularly in a situation of fiscal deficit position at the provincial and federal levels) is not exactly responsible use of taxpayers8217 dollars. And if too many people apply, then it8217s the gov8217t8217s capital that is directly subsidizing incumbent homeowners, which is a massive problem in Central London. PS: In 2018, the UK gov8217t paid 20bn in housing benefits. A quick calculation of privately owned rental units received 70bn in rent. That means the gov8217t paid roughly 28-29 of all rent. Not very well allocation of gov8217t funds8230 78 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 9:19 pm Regarding the kids today and my comment yesterday about the lack of jobs because of a bad economy. My point still stands and their coddled upbringings only compounds the problems. But just look at the youth unemployment in Europe over 25 in some countries8230. and when business do have to hire someone, they prefer to hire the older people who are also out of work because they do have better work ethics than the lazy kids. There are lot of good kids out there too, of course, its just that the ratio of useless is rising while the competition for useful has never been more essential for businesses to survive in this looter economy. Taxes, inflation, payroll deducts etc. 79 Andrew Woburn on 09.11.14 at 9:22 pm Some blog dogs would likely contest this statement: 8220We are both by design and by culture inclined to be anything but humble in our approach to investing. We usually invest on the basis that we8217re certain that we8217ve picked winners, we sell in the certainty that we can re-invest our capital to make more money elsewhere. We are usually wrong, often extremely wrong.8221 Vlad, I loved how Alex Jones handled that caller. The caller is a prisoner to his own bias. The group he was referring to, the majority are frightened little humanoids like everyone else. It8217s the buggers at the top. I refer to my Newvo rich relative. She got a taste of power, domination over others as she became wealthy, everyone around her lined up to lick her boots. It8217s an evolution of some kind8230 If fks with your brain8230 I snapped out if it and took action. Not everyone is as smart as me8230 66 Granny Annie on 09.11.14 at 8:40 pm 8212 any TREB member has access to the info Re: 37 Blacksheep on 09.11.14 at 7:10 pm. Free ounce of Gold. Any takers See post 14. Better yet A Canadian home could be yours for 100, and one persuasive essay For 100 wow. ( and an essay) 22 March, 2018 an article by JAMES BRADSHAW AYLMER, ONT. The Globe and Mail stated that, Calvin and Diana Brydges own a thrift store on the main drag of Aylmer, Ont. population 7,151. They sell vinyl LPs. Or, for 100 and a few pages of inspired writing, you can have their house. The couple is holding an essay-writing contest, and the prize is their three-bedroom brick home on three quarters of a country acre just east of Aylmer. To win it, entrants must explain why the house would benefit them most, and send a 100 entry fee. 8211 Really, has it come to this Quit making them feel guilty living with mom. Rather have them paying mom rent than some house flipper. Let house flip pay his own mortgage. 84 Andrew Woburn on 09.11.14 at 9:36 pm Those twenty-eight pages tell a story that has been completely removed from the 911 Report, Lynch maintains. Another congressman who has read the document said that the evidence of Saudi government support for the 911 hijacking is very disturbing, and that the real question is whether it was sanctioned at the royal-family level or beneath that, and whether these leads were followed through. Now, in a rare example of bipartisanship, Jones and Lynch have co-sponsored a resolution requesting that the Obama Administration declassify the pages. 85 Red Deer Rob on 09.11.14 at 9:37 pm Don8217t generalize all millenials that way. We8217re not homogeneous. 42 NostyVlad the Snugglebombed on 09.11.14 at 7:33 pm 8220187 Kenchie on 09.11.14 at 8:51 am China is a beacon of economic stability in a profligate world This world is a highly-dysfunctional cornucopia of paradoxes, highs lows, heavens hells etc. and it is supposed to be that way. For example: Freedom Scotland, Catalans, Texas and Alaska8221 I was being facetious with that statement by the way. I agree with your statement that the world is highly-dysfunctional. That8217s just how it is8230 My point of posting that link was to show people how messed up the Chinese property market is. It8217s arguably way worse (trading paper amongst investors at a faster velocity) than boom-time America There are, according to the article, 1,000 online peer-to-peer lending sites engaged in helping small-time investors own a slice of a much more expensive house. It makes no mention of the cash flow derived from the investment, so it could easily be empty. That8217s insane 66 Grannie Annie Find something called a Roscoe terminal and you can search properties by address, name, parcel number etc. The report will show all title transfers, sale prices, liensencumbrances etc. If a staff member is too busy to assist, most of the other patrons are usually quite helpful as they8217re pros. 30 8211 in my anecdotal experience it particularly seems to be a Vancouver thing, but is found in Montral, Toronto, and even Calgary. I grew up in a small town, and my 22-year-old sister is still there she and all her friends rent (a few buy) their own places. For them, living with your parents would be bizarre and socially undesireable. Think about this people, if we8217re lucky like my dad, 97 years old, a GPS attached to his wrist. The bastard can still sprint8230 His mind is gone, off in some weird world. He smiles a lot, but when the words come out, not even an alien that speaks a million languages and a direct connect to the UCC can make out what he says. We got about 100 years if we8217re un lucky. Why worry, why be afraid8230 Enjoy life to its fullest. Do what you love doing cause one day, you will need reading glasses, then Viagra, then a diaper the a coffin. It8217s short, make your time sweet, going to Seneca tomorrow, drinks on me8230. JANET YELLEN :82308221the problems with LIBOR have undermined the public8217s trust in the financial system.8221 corporate debt considered high quality liquid asset while investment grade municipal securities are not federalreserve. govnewseventsspeechpowell20180904a. htm Senator Richard Shelbys: Somethings wrong with the justice department. People shouldnt be able whoever they are, not just financial institutions shouldnt be able to buy their way out for culpability, especially when its so strong it defies rationality. I agree with her Warren on that. parallels extend and pretend Japan. China businessweekarticles2018-09-10is-china-another-japan-in-the-makingrmost20popular 4 Retired Boomer 8211 you got that right. The endgame of kids living together forever with their parents in an incredibly expensive environment can be seen in Japan. These people are called parasites, since they feed off their parents forever. en. wikipedia. orgwikiParasitesingle Unfortunately, this would never work in the Canadian context, as most parents would be willing to toss the kids out on the street (or into the nearest snowbank). The real solution for yesterday8217s guy is to sell everything, take small loss, and move to Ecuador. He could live like a king off the savingspension and even find affordable private nursing for his wife, in addition to housekeeper, gardener etc. He could even apply to be an Honorary Consul given his stellar public service. (starting to sound like the beginning of a John Le Carre novel). As for the kid in the basement, Pops could enroll him in Mariachi lessons down there and he could busk his way towards financial independence. home depot automated call-in system known as a Voice Response Unit (VRU) to change PIN 8230fraud fighter at a bank in New England that experienced more than 25,000 in PIN debit fraud at ATMs in Canada. The bank employee said thieves were able to change the PINs on the cards using the banks automated VRU system. 8221 krebsonsecurity Tax evasion: sophisticated scam revealed by CBC hidden camera Experts said one plan was virtually 8216untraceable8217 By Timothy Sawa, CBC News Posted: Sep 30, 2018 9:35 PM ET Last Updated: Oct 01, 2018 9:15 AM ET Brian De Wit, Cem Can indicted by FBI in 500M offshore tax fraud scheme By Timothy Sawa, CBC News Posted: Sep 10, 2018 11:21 AM ET Last Updated: Sep 10, 2018 1:32 PM ET As alleged, the defendants concocted an intricate scheme using sham companies to make money while repeatedly evading and violating U. S. securities and tax laws. The indictment of these defendants should serve as a stern reminder that such greed-based behaviour comes at a cost, the FBI said in a statement. cbc. canewsbusinessbrian-de-wit-cem-can-indicted-by-fbi-in-500m-offshore-tax-fraud-scheme-1.2761811 94 Smoking Man on 09.11.14 at 10:04 pm OK had a JD or two8230 Feel like writing8230 You bastards want the Holly Grail of happiness. I8217m going to tell you write now. Print it and put it on your fridge, just like Newvo put my Xmas face book post on hers. Do not be afraid of judgment, let it all hang out. Look in the mirror and scream to your reflection, your special your the best8230 Piss off your teachers if they find out. But sky will always be blue, and the sun will always shine. 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:08 pm Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a) other ASOE professors, such as F. A. Hayek, and b) Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c) pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. He had respect for Mises, no doubt, but had differing views on somethings and looked to improve upon his former professor8217s work. Just search for 8220Mises8221 in the search field, it will bring up all the sections Hayek speaks about him. Many of the sections show his disagreementcriticism. Page 5 of 7, half way down. Talks about Rand and Mises. It8217s like Friedman could be talking about ARArmy 96 DreamingIntechnicolour on 09.11.14 at 10:13 pm When there is not enough to buy a pizza after you get paid, pay your bills and put some gas in the tank 8211 then you know the banks, finance and car companies have you by the short and curlies 8211 and who is to blame 8211 only a greedy, show-off like yourself. If you can8217t make payments, in time, they will force the sale of your home seize what ever they need from your equity to pay out the mortgage and their court costs, they will re-possess your car truck and they will go after you for credit card debts 8211 and who is to blame 8211 only a greedy, show-off like yourself. Ok, I have 2 kids in elementary school and the situation in today8217s post crossed my mind many times. What would I do as a parent Here8217s what I came up with: Let8217s say you think about a rock climber heshe will take more risks and explore more opportunities if heshe has good security 8211 a rope that will save the day if a climbing fiasco occurs. I apply the same principle to life: I will tell my kids to go explore the world and will be quite pushy about it, but I will let them know that at any time they fail in a new undertaking, there is always a room and a bed for them to 8220fall back on8221, so to speak. As a parent, I do intend to push them to go for new and risky opportunities, I intend to encourage them to be bold and not fear a new journey, but again, I will be the so-called safety net for them, so that they can go the riskier way and benefit more than average from it if successful, or learn from it if not. I am an immigrant here in Canada. I started from 32k in 2004 and now make over 100k with bonus, which is not that bad. As I wrote here before, I am going to get my CFA charter soon and keep advancing in my career. The only thing I didn8217t have is this 8220security net8221 of parents here that would have allowed me to go some riskier ways and maybe earn even more today. I had to feed my wife and kids and I had to go the safer way of my career advancement. As a parent, I think that my duty is to raise my kids to be educated, street smart, independent, wise at handling money and, most importantly, is to encourage them to take risks and if they fail 8211 to provide them the place to come back, recover, regroup and go back to do big things again. Maybe I am wrong. But this is the best I think I can do for them. الوقت سوف اقول. And certainly, if they are 24 and living in my house, they will have to pay market-level rent, which, when they buy a housesemi (no condo) will be given 100 back to them for the downpayment. They must learn the value of money as soon as possible. Peace. 98 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.11.14 at 10:16 pm Back from the Thursday night gambling rendezvous. Didn8217t win, but I had my fair share of Brandy. No, at majority you do NOT owe your kids anything, but if you can afford it, help them with their aspirations assuming you have your future retirement on track. Help with higher education OK 8211 IF you CAN afford it. Rent to them below market for a time - IF you can afford it. Do NOT let them dwell in your basement until they 8220find themselves8221 that is bullshit. Do NOT help them buy a property, leave them a ton in your will after you croak so they can pay off the shelter they bought, or to buy their first place. You8217re dead, do you give a shit If you created another human being, be the best parent you can be, but at the age of majority, it is time for them to fly on their own. They may well fall and break a wing, or their neck that is called 8216life.8221 Most will learn from their errors, and with some pain. You can8217t live their life for them, take care of your own first Be sympathetic, but not pathetic. Not every kid is destined to be 1 but if they are productive members of society, a job well done Good job End of today8217s RANT Kids moving out before marriage is just a phenomenon that started back with the Boomer generation. Kids of immigrants never moved out before marriage regardless of ethnicity. First generation Italians, Greeks and Portuguese never moved out until they were hitched and scored their down payment from their wedding collections. Chinese and Indian cultures commonly share 1 house with Parents, kids, daughter-in-laws and grand kids. The Dad, Son, Daughter-in-law and other siblings work and bring in the house hold income while the Mother watches the grand kids. This is why these million dollar houses with lots of space are constantly being sold and afforded with the multiple family earners. Theres a huge economic benefit of multi-generational families living in one house that affords the extra parental supervision, extra savings for food, energy, extra money for education and their kids graduate with no debt, properly raised with strong family values. Family dynamics are changing in Canada and the old white Canadian way of letting your kids run wild, work and figure it out on their own will only get them so far and do not fit in this new economy. All too often these kids take the path of least resistance and fall off the economic ladder, just look at the enrollment for the Arts vs. Science degrees. 32 Smoking Man on 09.11.14 at 6:52 pm 27 Steve French on 09.11.14 at 6:30 pmIve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines. What should I do with it Stay away from Forex Only Alians with Esp can win at that game. 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212 I8217ve done REALLY well over 1-2 years keeping more investments and cash in USD. Are you getting out of USD entirely I8217m likely doing a bit more conversion back to CAD (via norbert8217s gambit) now that CAD is back under 90 cents, but will still have a ton of USD investments. Garth, you sound like you8217re 90 years old when you rag on 25-year-olds. It8217s not like the Boomer days when you had a fat paycheque, car, kids, and a DB plan by 14. Bald by 20. All on a high school diploma. And somehow old geezers still have no cash. I wish I could8217ve filled up my camaro for 12 cents a litre. Instead, I8217m paying for underfunded pensions. Great post as usual. I look forward to the day you shut this blog down because that means the correction is well underway and sanity will return to this country. 69 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:43 pm 152 yesterday PS: Im not talking about the value of real work having value as being wrong. There is much more to ASOE than real value of work. The main problem I have with ASOE, in general, is the fixation on hard currency as being superior than a market-based floating currency. How can they profess to be market-fundamentalists but be supportive of an inflexible exchange rates (fixed to gold) and despises price discovery on exchange rates They cant, its called cognitive dissonance. 8220Truly a foolish comment.8221 82128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212- Please 8220set the record straight8221, rather than say 8220foolish comment8221 without any rationale behind it to support your view. 8220So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility. 8220-Garth Your conclusions are baseless and incorrect on this topic. The economy, from high youth unemployment, underemployment, and obscene costs (see youth car insurance, education costs, etc.) has delayed financial independence across the board. It8217s a global issue and not just Canadian, if you put some thought into it instead of turning your nose up, I think you would develop a more realistic view of today8217s youth. 63 setting the record straight Deserve Unions are designed to extract above market wages. They are particularly successful when negotiating with governments. (Even FDR did not believe there should be public sector unions). The question is what would teachers salaries be if set by the market. Well, the Criminal BC guberment has offered 40 day for children under 12 for daycare 8211 daycare, no accountability for teaching 6 year-olds how to read, write sentences, develop socially, artistically. physically. I had 23 six year-olds 8230x 40920 day x 22 teaching days per month 20,240 month x 10 months ( remember, I need my two months off, right Slue) 82308230. 202,400 per annum82308230 F ya Free enterprise8230..show me the money 105 ozy - ANSWER THIS on 09.11.14 at 10:39 pm 8220The TSX gained 27 in the past year and the SampP is up 21, while inflation is 2 82308221 so, Garth, solve this mystery: if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs (we spend it all on kids and RE, etc) who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market does Canada has treason laws8230..just wondering 72 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 9:05 pm 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09.11.14 at 8:08 pm 8220Links please - There will be no links from Kenchie because its not true and hes a liar.8221 Please see my post early with links. 8220People like Kenchie often make up slanderous remarks and dismissive unbacked statements about Mises and Ayn Rand because their economic and philosophical arguments can not be beat by arguing against them and hence is why they always attack the person and not their ideas or theories.8221 Well, well. I actually can back up my point of view with rationale. 8220Beat8221 is subjective. You8217re too biased to let go of your beliefs to look at another point of view. I only came up with my point of view on ASOE after reading about it and applying other forms of economic theory to it, and integrating real-life situations to it. And that8217s how I came up with the idea that it8217s just simply outdated economics. It doesn8217t work any more. Nor do I believe 8220Keynesianism8221 works much anymore either. The variables today are very different than they were in the 1930s. I8217m not going to waste my time by listing them here though. Learning by doing is the best form, I suggest you do your own research on other economic theories to open up your mind. I suggest you look at what I posted regarding Milton Friedman8217s opinion on Ayn Rand and Von Mises. You8217re exactly the type of person he is talking about. Also, you8217re talking about what8217s called 8220ad-hominem8221. Currently, you8217re doing it to me with your post. My kid sister is 32, doesn8217t have a steady job, had a kid and then split with her hubby. Now she is an economic basket case almost totally dependent on her 8220helicopter parents8221. But why not She8217s living much better in my dad8217s new 8220rental property8221 than she could on her own. I8217m not sure who to blame but the whole thing looks tragic to me. On the one hand I figure if she can get dad to buy her a house, why would she say no So I can see her point of view. If they were throwing money at my kids to go to school I8217d probably let them take it too. But they don8217t. My kids don8217t 8220need8221 to go to school. If they were rich, I could understand if they were saying 8220hey, we can8217t spend all our money so here you go dear children, 100,000 each do what you will8221 or something. I8217d use the money to pay for my kid8217s education, make life easier for them as students. Some rich people do that. But instead they are helping one child and probably imperiling their finances to do so. And then they went and bought a new motor home. Don8217t get me wrong, that seems like a normal thing for retired folks to own. Why not have our old folks cruising the highways in 10 ton disco wagons with side-outs But they had to finance that too. So now they have a new mortgage on a house they don8217t collect rent or utilities on, or at least not very much of it, and a financed disco wagon that self levels. Oh and the icing on the cake is they just bought a new car (financed as well) but it can8217t be towed behind the RV so they are planning to get something towable. Yikes I should just move 3 provinces away as Garth suggests. And buy (or rent) a place that doesn8217t have RV parking. So Garth, you just can8217t help people. I don8217t know if they just can8217t do math in retirement and figure they have all the money in the world (I don8217t think so) or they are quite convinced the apocalypse is upon us so it doesn8217t matter (yes, they might, hence my tendency to make jokes in that line) but they went from being free of debt on a fixed income to signing loans all over the place still on a fixed income in just a short period of time. And no they did not ask for my opinion. So no, I am not backstopping it if Jesus doesn8217t get back in time. There will be no 8220reverse helicopter parenting8221. Did I mention my dad thinks a reverse mortgage will be all he needs if anything goes sideways I don8217t get it. Take a reverse mortgage on his house to make the payments on a house he bought for his daughter. نعم. I8217m moving away. Don8217t know where I am going yet but the jobs seem to be in the US for my line of work. This article is about 15 year old 8220kid8221 who is teaching Donbass militia how to fight Ukranian naziez who burnt his home town. Kids(Canadian)8230. you have no chance in this life. You just can8217t compete with kids with REAL life experience. And I am not talking about combat, you will run under mom8217s wing way before it comes to any fight. And I am NOT talking about war, any economic hardship and you dead :-))))) No iphone I am dead, cant live without it. Sure you will never translate it and believe all lies in MSM, good luck. kp. rudaily26281.33158203 I could not agree more. Being financially independent and dare I say well-off is an anomaly in my social circle let alone my generation. Too many people my age are aghast at the reality that 8216following your passion8217 usually doesn8217t pay the bills. Despite subscribing to buzzfeed8217s 21 Affirmations of a Modern Day Hustler (as told in cat gifs natch) they wouldn8217t dare get a second job. Instead the solution is more school, financed by mom and dad. So off to Northwestern they go because a masters in journalism is sure to land them a job writing features for Toronto Life OK, here8217s what kills me about this subject. These same snivelling, spoiled little princes and princesses are the ones sing all over the baby boomers for taking everything and leaving nothing for them. I8217m one generation younger than the boomers, but I8217m sick and tired of hearing this. Every boomer I know has spent most of the lives and earnings on ensuring their kids have the best of everything and never wanting for anything. Cars, schools, travel, homes, best clothes etc. These are the same kids now grown up complaining because they can8217t maintain the life their parents gave them. After all, why should they have to work for anything, they never had to before and they got the best of everything. How dare the boomers do this to them lol. Sick and tired of it. Get a life and get a job, even if it8217s low paying. That8217s what the boomers did. I used to go to Seneca semi-regularly with a girlfriend from Hamilton (where I used to live) and have 8216SPA weekend8217. I live in Ottawa now, and always looked forward to our annual get-together in Niagara. She likes to gamble, and is good at it. I would watch. We got looks from guys, who I suspect thought we were a couple. كان ممتعا. Now I cannot go anymore because my Canadian passport shows place of birth, 8216Dallas Texas8217, and I am not allowed to travel to USA on my Canadian passport. USA just raised the price of citizenship renunciation from 450 to 2,350, on top of the existing requirement of 5 years tax compliance(thousands of dollars in forms and risk of penalties) and an exit tax. I left USA with my Canadian parents at age one. Sigh8230SPA days were fun. 112 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 11:12 pm Fritz Machlup was a student of Mises8217s, one of his most faithful disciples. At one of the Mont Pelerin meetings, Fritz gave a talk in which I think he questioned the idea of a gold standard he came out in favor of floating exchange rates. Mises was so mad he wouldn8217t speak to him for three years. هذا صحيح. Mises was betrayed by his best student who relented on the necessity of the gold standard as is required to force discipline on the supply of money and help ensure market interest rates and so many monetary issues. Money, the lifeblood of the economy, to relent on the instance of money being backed by a weight of a commodity is absolutely fundamental for money8217s function as a unit of measure and account. On this issue, Mises was right and i believe he never forgave him or bothered with him again. The creators of the US constitution also knew this and under the section for weights and measured mention only gold and silver could be coined by gov. as money. All our problems today stem from the break of the gold standard. See, kenchi, you got nothing. No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed. لحسن الحظ. 8212 Garth 82208230the certainty of rate increases next year82308221 Not too likely. The last 8211 the absolute LAST 8211 thing governments want is higher interest rates. That8217s why their central banks regard interest rate manipulation as Job1. You think they8217ll willingly deep-six their highly-leveraged friends and clients What would higher rates do to homeowners To the real estate and housebuilding industry To leveraged 40-to-1 hedge funds, barely eking out any yield at all even with today8217s massive government supports NOT GOING TO HAPPEN not until the efficacy of the central bank 8216put8217 itself is questioned. Of course it will end badly. Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do8230.. Exactly, Garth. Which is the point of my comment from the post yesterday. (which got a couple of thumbs down). This sense of entitlement is the killer, aided by parents suffering from guilt and a 8216looking like a good and responsible parent in the eyes of their family and peers8221 complex. Tell me what life lessons are being taught if all young people are given are material benefits, i. e cash, stay under thieir parents roof with no plan to evolve or become independent. Experience no financial lessons because all is taken care of for you, etc. etc. The best and brightest young people I encounter these days are the ones that show initiative, independence, have a desire to think and plan ahead, and want to do it with as little assistance as possible. The actively look for opportunites. When I meet young people with these attributes today they really stand out. They really set themselves apart from the majority. We can all use a hand up at some point in our lives, but parents who try to justify enabling their basement dwelling children by blaming the economy or 8220different times8221 don8217t want to face reality. Press articles about car manufacturers concerns regarding young peoples disinterest in buying or owning vehicles is traced to their parents habit of driving them wherever they want to go. Imagine. Why would little Johnny get a driver8217s license when mommie will drive him 8 blocks to his friends house Guess why he also won8217t be receptive to moving out of his parents home with the sub zero fridge, home theatre, and permissive parents that let the girlfriend sleep over every night. Be annoyed, but recognize yourself when you read this. 97 Gladiator8230.he has it right. 116 Saskatchewan Skeptic on 09.11.14 at 11:28 pm I apologize for this rant in advance, I8217m just in a bad mood tonight8230. It is definitely a misguided party here in Canada. In Regina 8211 New homes along with homes from the 1980-90s (larger bungalows) are, in many cases over 400 grand and becoming comparable to parts of illustrious Alberta (surprise). It8217s unreal. So what happens to those of us 30ish millennials who weren8217t afforded the luxuries of our parent8217s basement, 8216free8217 tuition from them and all the free food you could dream of Well, I came out of university with a degree, good job and a decent pension plan. Unfortunately, I don8217t have the cash saved for a down payment and thus, live in a slanty, century old 1bd for 800 a month (That8217s cheap in the YQR). I also had to attain that degree on my own dime and thus, life has granted me a sizable student debt and a small car payment. I do however have a brain and see through this garbage market towards whats really coming. That said, I can8217t believe the amount of fake, entitled people who scoff at renters. I talk to friends who own (parents paid their down payment of course) who wonder why I don8217t jump balls in and break my mortgage-ginity. I mean why not I have a 8220career8221 now and some of my friends make half what I do. None of these friends are willing to admit that if they tried to sell their 1bd South Regina condo they bought for 190 8 months ago, it would go for 160 tops today. Scary. My one friend even shacked up with a girl, begging her to move in with him because after all bills were paid, he was only left with 47 for food, drinking and smoking8230 He STILL bugs me about owning like he does. It8217s so infuriating because I8217ve worked so hard for everything and all that most kids do these days is snap their fingers (or cry) to make mommy and daddy shell out their fictional savings for a down payment. There are 20-30 somethings that actually treat a renter like dirt because they didn8217t jump into this party. It makes me sick sometimes and I can8217t wait for the day that all my debt is paid off and I pick off a foreclosure from some stuck up hipsters who got divorced when hubby8217s construction job went through some tough layoffs. Oh, and that home will most certainly be worth 25-30 less, wiping out whatever plans they had to split their 8220nest egg8221. They deserve to eat some dirt for assuming the renters live in that dirt today. Go Riders. At 11 he left the house to study in one school where you have to stay for 15 days, living, studying, sleeping and working on it, after that a weekend at home visited from Friday to Sunday night, at 8pm Sunday you better be in your bedroom back on the school. 11 class sessions per day, 7.50am you already cleaned your student neigborhood, took your breakfast, had the first general meeting. at 8am in the freaking classroom on the first session. obligatory study from 8pm to 10pm, from monday to friday, teacher check you by your number, yes, it8217s faster to ask for a number instead of your name. at 17 he took a ship to another country to start the university, 10000 miles from the parents, he just arrived and found a job in a laundry facility where half drunk strong old russian guys pushed him to work harder and faster to getter a better pay and drink heavier at night, 12 hours of work, 30 minutes to eat and not more pauses during the day, drink water was not a pause. Is this a good standard to compare the new kids and their education in Canada, Garth I wonder if the minister of education of Canada reads this blogs He (in the history) me I hear that in South Korea is more strict in their program than in this history, in some cases they stop the traffic around the school to allow the kids to concentrate in the exams. If it was the case I8217d love to be born there. 118 High Plains Drifter on 09.11.14 at 11:29 pm The letters column reads like from the 18008217s. This world is different and does call for different strategies. I suggest that this does look like a dead end world for the many. Juggling equity and debt is the modern tightwalk that allows luxury before turning into a curmudgeon. Somebody please write a letter trying to talk my wife out of her winter cruise to exotica. 8220No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed. لحسن الحظ. Garth8221 821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212 Agreed. Why would a sovereign, tie their hands and relinquishing control of the printing press Sure as hell know I wouldn8217t. 120 straight six on 09.11.14 at 11:44 pm I was a prefect at age 14 and had hitchhiked the western states by age 17. I say, bring back the whip. and the running shoe The snot nosed little bastards.. Violence solves most everything. History says so. 121 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 11:45 pm No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed. لحسن الحظ. Garth Well if ever again depends on the results of the vote in November, ever again, is not as long as one might think. First country to back their currency will be the first out of the gate at improving their economy while the west follows Zimbabwean, Argentina, Japan, and USA into oblivion. Garth, your whole blog only exists today because we are not on the gold standard. All the money driving up prices would not be possible if tied to finite commodity backing. This bubble is a credit and debt bubble by mortgages created out of thin air back by small reserves. Canada8217s banking system has no limit on leverage or reserve requirements. All very Bad. Greetings from Leduc 8211 walked the Frt Mac oil show, and called on customers in Edm who were constantly short of workers. Boss wants me to move to Edm because he thinks the oil patch is on fire and would increase business 8211 looked at 3 bdrm townhouses that are being bidded on around 10 below asking, and lots of product to choose from. Watching the telly in the hotel room and the kick is the CBC doczone program is on condos 8211 good show 8211 I bet they read your blog to research it ha ha. I have been there done that in condos (it8217s the CBC right) 8211 hey I live in Vcr. Your comments on the show8230if you caught it8230would be welcomed. 911 was an inside job. 112 Ayn Rand Army on 09.11.14 at 11:12 pm 8220Mises was betrayed by his best student who relented on the necessity of the gold standard as is required to force discipline on the supply of money and help ensure market interest rates and so many monetary issues8230 On this issue, Mises was right and i believe he never forgave him or bothered with him again.8221 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212 It8217s just your OPINION that 8220Mises was right8221. Clearly, this 8220betrayal8221 shows the world that his 8220best student8221 didn8217t agree with him on the gold standard and preferred floating exchange rates And, quelle surprise, I touched cognitive dissonance exhibited by LVM on inflexible exchange and price discovery of exchange rates (i. e. floating is superior and more in line with market economy fundamentals). P You think forcing 8220discipline on supply of money8221 and 8220help ensure market interest rates8221 actually works Newsflash It doesn8217t Inflation happens regardless of 8220sound money. Have you ever seen the chart of inflation and deflation in the US over the course of the 19th century It8217s not pretty. Try making capital investment decisions when the economic cycle is like this: socialdemocracy21stcentury. blogspot. ca201810the-gold-standard-did-not-prevent-price. html Despite your OPINION, no monetary policy (8220Sound8221 or not) can stop human beings from irrationally bidding up the price of, say, tulips, or shares in the 8220Mississppi Company8221, or freakin8217 NORTEL Networks stock (398bn market cap at its peak). So in reality, the legitimate discussion isn8217t about 8220Sound Money8221, but about availability of 8220Liquidity8221 when it8217s needed most And under a 8220hard currency8221 system, backed by Gold, Silver, Seashells, or Beaver Pelts, 8220liquidity8221 can8217t be brought forward quickly enough to stop the complete crash and, potentially, depressions. Like I said, take the lessons from LVM and apply them to real life, and you8217ll quickly understand that it8217s just 8220theory8221 and has been obsolete for about 70 years (at least). You should start by watching all of the 8220Free to Choose8221. Part 1: youtubewatchvD3N2sNnGwa4 8220202,400 per annum F ya8221 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128211 Keep dreaming. Those 8217s are destined to buy off the parents, so the gov. can let the daycare works starve on the picket line. With an over supply of teachers in BC, the value for your ilk8217s services is dropping by the day. If I was a teacher (ya, right), I8217d be getting my ass back to work, while I still had a job. 8220if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs (we spend it all on kids and RE, etc) who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market 8220 The Canadian stock market hasn8217t really gone up in over 7 years. And there has been significant buyback activity. Additionally, TSX60-index-constituent firms have retained (and re-invested) 23rds of their earnings. So naturally such firms, with additional retained earnings, become more valuable. At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward. This years8217 performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come. 126 TakingResponsibility on 09.12.14 at 1:58 am What8217s actually wrong with inter-generational living I think it sad that birth, child-rearing, education, old-age, and even death have become Outsourced institutionalized. Actually, most of us spend our working years in some institution or another. We are all institutionalized debt slaves. Hard to moralize other than simplistic moral opinions 8211 from within our institutionalized and marketized minds. Does the Market inform us and determine our morals and the ways in which we live Or, do our morals inform the Markets This intergenerational moralizing doh which is most definitely not moral theory nor ethical 8211 can get out of hand young people might even turn the tables and begin moralizing (and, yikes, legislating) about how those old folk are not productive and decide that anyone over a certain age should be euthanized. 68 Or 70 Tear down listed for 17.9 million in Vancouver. Damn low interest rates8230 Wait,8230payments would be 90,000month8230 My parents 8220encouraged8221 me to leave home at 16 and fend for myself 8211 especially if i wanted to go to college. They saw it as a way to make us more grown up. My brothers had the same treatment. Of course, if anything serious happened i could always return home (still could if i wanted), but ego 8211 and determination to be an adult stopped me. Im now approaching 40 and am glad I did, i became less dependent, more self sufficient, and more GROWN UP because of it. These kids staying at home until their 308217s, doesnt just strike me as sad (how the hell do they get laid). But also, I wonder what it8217s doing to this new generation of mommies boysgirls 8211 who never really learned to grow up How will these people ever proceed in life They8217re obviously never going to become the new bossesetc. Because they just have never learned to properly fend for themselves 8211 expecting everything on a plate. Its quite depressing. Not to impersonate 8220Devil8217s Advocate8221 I must be one. The specter of adult offspring living in the same home as parents, moldy basement stereotype aside, is not such a nightmare when everyone gets along well, and handles their portion of community responsibility. My folks lived with my family when my son was very young, and both my husband and I feel we benefitted as did our son. It8217s a spiritual or emotional benefit, and not necessarily a financial one. But a house filled with love can weather many problems. Note the key phrase: As long as everyone (including beloved offspring) take on their share of community responsibility. Ottawa moved to cut employment insurance premiums for small businesses Thursday, touting it as an effort that will save employers more than 550 million over the next two years and help stimulate hiring. Encouraging the hiring of workers, hopefully Canadian workers and not TFW8217s is a good thing but it is truly sad that the Minister and his cohorts in the Conservative government would not try a really effective tool. And that is to simply stop the massive immigration that goes on decade after decade at a rate that cannot be sustained by job creation. Statistics Canada and non-government agencies have already outlined the impossibility of providing sufficient jobs in the economy under dicey world economic conditions. If you have any doubt about the fragility of the economy just try to explain why interest rates have remained near rock bottom for many years. Yet this country is hell-bent on hundreds of thousands of new immigrants seeking work, added to hundreds of thousands of previous years immigrants who are still seeking work. Add to those hundreds of thousands of foreign students who are eligible to work and are seeking employment. Then try to find room for the hundreds of thousands of real Canadian unemployed who are seeking work. We have a government bent on a policy of Multiculturalism in a rush, and more interested in developing that boondoggle then giving serious consideration to what is happening to the Canadian workplace and the downward push on wages and full-time employment. Annual immigration us 0.7 of the population, without which we would have decline. 8212 Garth Annual immigration us 0.7 of the population, without which we would have decline. Garth This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast Normally I delete comments like this. However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker. 8212 Garth 46 George on 09.11.14 at 7:49 pm You know Garth that you and Bank of Canada are part of the filthy. greedy system. and this illusionary system will fall. soon And your dumb, childish blog will disappear Let me guess. 24. Live at home. Mom does your shorts. MA in Egyptology. Garth Boy that was funny Garth8230 Egyptology LOL May I add, how many young girls do we need enrolled in the teachers program at York University. looking to major in Languages (Italian and French in that order) to teach Italian or French and graduate from their MISS to MRS. on the side8230LMAO. A gaggle of uselessness. 125 Mark on 09.12.14 at 12:33 am if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs (we spend it all on kids and RE, etc) who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market The Canadian stock market hasnt really gone up in over 7 years. And there has been significant buyback activity. Additionally, TSX60-index-constituent firms have retained (and re-invested) 23rds of their earnings. So naturally such firms, with additional retained earnings, become more valuable. At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward. This years performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come. علامة. I have come to enjoy most of your posts and agree with your assessment of the TSX and relative value it represents. I would add that the overwhelming distrust of the stock market and the repetitive refrain I hear from the average shmuck out there. for instance, 8220the market is going to take a bath8221 was yesterday evenings from a local 8216genius8217s comment. SampP at new highs, TSX flirting with all time highs and people still horny for bricks8230 Stock market is likely to get very volatile next week with the fed meeting, plus oil fell 15 in 3 months. This means, get your stock shopping list ready. With some luck, in 2018, only REITs and condo prices will go down while banks, insurers, and energy will keep going up. Ah what am I saying8230 rates won8217t even move by a percent by the end of 2018. Please the masses. I would not take a bet on that if I were you. 8212 Garth 124 8220With an over supply of teachers in BC, the value for your ilks services is dropping by the day. If I was a teacher (ya, right), Id be getting my ass back to work, while I still had a job.8221 Is there not also an oversupply of ready to start work police, fire, etc. It doesn8217t seem to stop those groups from demanding even more than any classroom teacher could ever hope to make, Police and firefighters are essentially only required to be high school graduates and enter their jobs with no post secondary education or the student loans that go with four years of university. Police and fire services are where the money is at and as essential services you will never lose a dime sitting on a strike line. Thirty years and out with gold plated benefits sure beats a teacher8217s 35 years and out with no benefits. 8220Unfunded pension liabilities8221 are words that no T. O. candidate for Mayor or Councillor would ever utter. It is easier to just buy civic workers, police and fire services off with taxpayer money to keep them happy and you elected. Hamilton, soon to be 1B in debt. Not even on the radar for the up coming civic election. 8220At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward. This years performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come.8221 I tend to agree, short term fluctuations aside this market has legs, despite recent gains stock ownership remains at historic lows and bonds are historically expensive. These are sure signs that risk aversion is still very very high. The fact that stocks have done well in that environment is amazing. Some people are making a lot of money, but the herd, or to be polite the middle class is not. When risk aversion recedes and it eventually will there will be some sparks. To me the main caveat here is the Canadian economy which could be severely impacted by a real estate correction, this would further sink the CAD, hurt Canadians companies and likely the local stock market. To me the US market is by far a safer investment. 138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.14 at 8:49 am 101 long dong 8220I wish I couldve filled up my camaro for 12 cents a litre. Instead, Im paying for underfunded pensions.8221 Well8230..there8217s always Viagra and the 8220movie industry8221 to supplement your income82308230. 139 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this wont end well on 09.12.14 at 9:07 am This baby adult thing is just a fad. Like granite and stainless. Boomers trying to out do each other. They can be so darn cute though. 140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.14 at 9:09 am Good old Ayn Rand A sci-fi hack that couldnt even spell her first name right( or is that 8220write8221 Smoking Man, help me here). But even Elron Hubbard (another sci-fi hack) was smart enough to turn his novels into a 8220religion8221. Both 8220authors8221 used their self importance and the stupidity of the masses to create 8220movements8221 that sheeple to this day still spew as 8220gospel8221. Kenchie, feel sorry for the delusional, for they know not what they speak. Back to you Ann 8220gold is my God8221 Randy. 141 Hot Albertan Money on 09.12.14 at 9:11 am 8220Its hard to know now when adulthood starts. 8221 That8217s why these geniuses invented a new term for 20 something basement trolls82308221Kidults8221 142 Inglorious Investor on 09.12.14 at 9:13 am Recently, a number of readers of this blog have been debating the compensation of public sector workers. There is no doubt that public sector workers offer some valuable services. People can argue over whether some of those services would better be delivered by the private sector, but that is not the point of my comment. The main point that I8217d like to make is this: In my opinion, it is immoral for public sector workers to be receiving increases in wagessalariespensionsbenefits during a time that the private sector is experiencing high unemployment, stagnant or declining wages, meager or no pensions, and meager or no benefits. Why do I say it8217s immoral I say so because public sector compensation is paid for with taxes. In fact, all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or indirectly. Even when the government builds valuable infrastructure such as roads and bridges, no matter who does the actual work (public or private workers) the necessary funds come from taxes. Even if the initial funding comes from the issuance of bonds, ultimately the debt is serviced with taxes. Without the private sector, there would be no public sector. Every time a private sector worker8217s taxes increase in order to fund an increase in public sector pensions, every dollar taken is a dollar that the private sector worker is denied for hisher own pension. Every dollar taken to fund a pubic sector pay increase is a dollar denied to pay for the private sector worker8217s own needs and the needs of hisher family. If the increases are initially funded with debt, then the burden is compounded with interest charges. Some might argue that public sector workers also pay taxes like everybody else. هذا صحيح. However, public sector workers are, by definition, net tax beneficiaries. When taxes rise to fund increases in public sector compensation, the public sector workers gain more than what it costs them in additional taxes. It8217s like paying yourself ten additional dollars and getting twenty additional dollars in actual extra pay. However, for the private sector worker the loss is compounded due to interest charges and because of the lost returns heshe could have realized by investing that money. In my opinion, public sector workers should only get increases when the private sector is also getting increases (in aggregate of course). Again, all the money earned by the public sector comes from taxes. When private sector wealth is stagnant or declining, the public sector should not be getting increases. This approach only further weakens the private sector, causes economic imbalances, and social tensions. Taking more from those who have less is simply wrong. On a related issue In Ontario, the Teachers8217 union has coerced the government into handing over the bulk of increases to education funding for many, many years. This has come at the expense of the quality of education our children are receiving in grade school and high school. If one examines the tactics used today, it is painfully obvious that all manner of concessions and strategic alternations are being made to maintain teacher headcount. This comes at the expense of the tax payer, and more importantly at the expense of the children the system is supposed to serve. This is why I believe public sector unions should be illegalthey can become, and have become, far too politically powerful. 143 always priceless on 09.12.14 at 9:14 am Let me guess. 24. Live at home. Mom does your shorts. MA in Egyptology. Garth WOW (Waugh Out Woud (lol in the voice of Elmer Fudd)). Thanks Garth Another HAM story with quotes from realtors8230 but, this one is from Reuters (vs. the Vancouver Sun or other local papers who rely on realtor ads), so it is a bit more credible. Is there any reason why governments wouldn8217t put a foreign buyer8217s tax on RE purchases Seems like the CitiesProvincesFeds are providing all of the services to these properties, but in many cases no income tax flows through to help pay for it You know people, even if it takes 5 years to get to interest rates 2 higher than today8217s, people will still have tons of debt that needs to be paid at that higher rate. People are not paying off 500k, 600k or more loans in 5 years. In fact due to the wonders of amortization, they8217ve barely made a dent. Personally, once I went to university I never really came home, and though my parents paid for first year of undergrad, after that we split 5050. It8217s important to have some skin in the game, so to speak. I can8217t imagine living my 20s under my parents8217 roof. 146 Joe Average, Vancouver on 09.12.14 at 9:59 am Molson Canada ( a US company) in Mississauga just laid off 80 people, all quality job. They have plans to close Molson in Vancouver that sits in one of the most expensive hoods in Canada ( Kitsilano ). Most production moving to US8230.cheaper wages, real estate and so on. The trend is clear for US companies in Canada8230.bring the jobs back to US of A. 147 Steve French on 09.12.14 at 10:14 am Dis one8217s for da Weekend Single Malt Drinking Filosofers Mr. Smokign Man amp Sir Garths-a-Lot: 8220I have realised that the past and future are real illusions, that they exist in the present which is what there is and all there is.8221 8211 Alan Wilson Watts Read it amp weep, bitchez. 148 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.12.14 at 10:29 am 131 Porsche on 09.12.14 at 6:22 am Annual immigration us 0.7 of the population, without which we would have decline. Garth This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast Normally I delete comments like this. However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker. Garth Agree 100 White, black, brown, yellow, hell I don8217t care if your green or purple. Immigration is what built this country, however multiculturalism is NONE of the Governments Freeking business and should never have mandated any inclusions regarding it. All it does is divide us up into segments by pushing your heritage forward first before your citizenship as a CANADIAN first, always Hell my wife is Irish and has a Spanish heritage. I come from Scottish and English heritage, I don8217t go out and force everyone to listen to the garble that goes on from where our ancestry is from. That8217s for us to keep behind closed doors. We can embrace it and talk about it but I8217m sure my relatives came here 150 years ago to start fresh and embrace a new life. MULITICULTURIZEM SUCKS 149 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.12.14 at 10:33 am Wow I just did a Smoking Man on my last post. Spelled it wrong and hit enter too fast. Should have said Multiculturalism sucks when forced down our throats by the government Getting angry and old 150 All markets are now risky on 09.12.14 at 10:41 am Re: 82208216If you start looking at your house as an investment class, as something else you should be investing in rather than the stock market, you run into the danger of being exposed to some of the excesses going on in the system.8221 Unfortunately, as a result of easy money policies worldwide, those same excesses exist in the stock market too. There8217s a bubble in the real estate market, the stock market, and the bond market. In the face of financial repression, and the desperate search by investors for yield, people have taken on ever greater amounts of risk in almost all investment classes. None of these inflated markets will end well. The S038P 500 is at 16.7 times earnings 8211 slightly above the historic average. A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore. Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem. 8212 Garth 151 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.12.14 at 10:46 am Those who want twentysomethings treated as dependent children invariably have economic reasons. No jobs, they say. The kidll be homeless. So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility. Hard to see how helicopter parenting does much for experience, which is the foundation of maturity. Seen it all, my neigbours kept their two boys in the basement for ten years after school. Firstly they did not progress any further with their education, so high school only for one and other never did graduate. That limited their options right away. Then they paid for their cars, insurance, food and free rent. All they did was to float from mediocre job to mediocre job on and off for years. I suggested once to my neighbour that the one son appears to have a talent for landscaping and he should start a small business. Hell I even offered to give him his first contract and my company8217s location. Nope his father said hes not going to do that manual labor. OK that was my Que to shut up. The son did eventually get into that business with someone else and is now considering starting his own company once he saves enough cash. I quietly told him to let me know and I will give him his first contract The other son still on and off unemployment. The parents still supply room and board plus a freaking Lexus for him to drive. Enabling to the max will kill their kids. Holy hit don8217t they get it Ingloriously Flawed Logic From Inglorious at 142 public sector compensation is paid for with taxes. In fact, all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or indirectly. Even when the government builds valuable infrastructure such as roads and bridges, no matter who does the actual work (public or private workers) the necessary funds come from taxes. Even if the initial funding comes from the issuance of bonds, ultimately the debt is serviced with taxes. Does a carpenter employed by the private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same 153 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 09.12.14 at 11:08 am I enjoyed this interview from 2008 with John Bogle (Mr Vanguard). 23 crossbordershopper My father says the same thing 8211 came to this country with a few dollars and couldn8217t speak English only difference now 8211 decades later 8211 he can speak English. The SampP 500 is at 16.7 times earnings slightly above the historic average. A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore. Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem. Garth Aren8217t you calling for about the same 15 correction in RE As a prelude to a years-long decline. Equities will likely correct and recover within a few months. More importantly, financial assets are 100 liquid. Real estate turns illiquid in a downturn. Consequently, elevated risk. 8212 Garth NEWARK, N. J. A New Jersey man pleaded guilty today to orchestrating an eight-year scheme to falsify employment certifications to facilitate the illegal entry of Indian immigrants into the United States and to filing a false tax return. U. S. Attorney Paul J. Fishman of the District of New Jersey, Assistant Attorney General Leslie R. Caldwell of the Justice Departments Criminal Division, Chief Richard Weber of Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI) and Director Bill A. Miller of the State Departments Diplomatic Security Service (DSS) made the announcement. Sandipkumar Patel, 41, of Edison, New Jersey, pleaded guilty before U. S. District Judge William H. Walls in Newark federal court to conspiring to defraud the United States and to filing a false federal income tax return. Sentencing is scheduled for Jan. 6, 2018. According to court documents filed with the plea agreement, from 2001 until 2009, Patel sponsored the visa applications of Indian nationals by falsely claiming to provide employment for them in the United States. Patel falsely certified on the visa applications that he would employ the immigrants in various technical fields at several New Jersey companies, thereby facilitating their illegal entry into the United States. Over the course of the scheme, immigrants paid Patel thousands of dollars for the false certifications to fraudulently secure the visas. To disguise the scheme, Patel issued payroll checks and other payroll forms. Patel required the immigrants to return the money from the checks and also to reimburse him for his payroll tax expenses. Patel used the fraudulent pay stubs and payroll checks to support false applications to extend the visas, and Patel charged the immigrants fees for the visa extensions. As a result of falsely carrying the immigrant employees on his payrolls, Patel overstated his payroll expenses on his federal income tax returns by more than 1.4 million over four years, under-reporting his tax obligation by over 400,000 for those years. This case was investigated by IRS-CI and DSS. irs. govuacExamples-of-Mortgage-and-Real-Estate-Fraud-Investigations-Fiscal-Year-2018 to recruit individuals who would be willing to purchase condominium units. These individuals were promised a buyers incentive, Developer Sentenced for Orchestrating Massive Mortgage Fraud Scheme On December 19, 2018, in Boston, Mass. Sirewl R. Cox was sentenced to 150 months in prison and three years of supervised release. On November 15, 2018, Cox was convicted of wire fraud, bank fraud and conducting an unlawful monetary transaction. According to court documents, in 2006 and 2007, Cox identified multiple-family buildings for sale and recruited straw buyers to purchase the buildings. Cox and others then recruited straw buyers to purchase individual units in buildings that Cox controlled. The straw buyers financing for the purchases was obtained by submitting mortgage loan applications and other documents that falsely represented key information. Deals were closed with HUD-1 settlement statements that falsely represented that straw buyers had made down payments and paid other funds in connection with the property transactions, and falsely represented how the proceeds of the mortgage loans were disbursed. Porsche. This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast Normally I delete comments like this. However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker. Garth you know in a social environment this comment would be in-appropriate. People would feel uncomfortable even if nothing pejorative were meant. I8217m sure Porsche meant to say 8220there have been vast changes in the Canadian demographic8221. A total of 19 of the population is 8216visible minority8217. which means 81 isn8217t. Deal with it. 8212 Garth 158 Inglorious Investor on 09.12.14 at 11:41 am 152 Shawn on 09.12.14 at 10:50 am 8220Does a carpenter employed by the private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same8221 Without private sector wealth funding public sector costs the public sector could produce NOTHING. Therefore, as I said, 8216all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or INDIRECTLY.8217 Learn to read. It might help. Inglorious suggests that I 8220Learn to read. It might help.8221 Inglorious, learn not to be ignorant (in both senses of the word). Boomers take the jobs. Consume massive amounts of health care. Inflate house prices. And then blame the kids. Garth, I thought you were better than this. You have no idea what the job market is like for the young. My brother graduated with a degree in aerospace engineering. Then went on to do a Master8217s in Biomechanical engineering. Took him over a year to find work in Toronto in 2009. Lived at home and worked as a fedex driver to pay the bills. He really would have been homeless if my parents had insisted he support himself after school. You want to see how really screwed over the job market is for the young Look at the market for teachers. Boomers just won8217t leave. And there are teachers in their 30s living at home, trying to survive with whatever work they can, taking all kinds of part time jobs. I saw it first hand. Ex-gf was 34 years old and living at home after 5 years teaching. And she worked well over 40 hours a week across several jobs including teaching. But could not make any sort of actual living wage. It was heartbreaking to watch her go for interview after interview and constantly struggle to find other contract work just to get by. My fiancee is also a teacher. Left the profession after struggling to get a proper career going. Only year long contracts at private schools. No real job at a school board. Went back to school for HR. Now job hunting. Lives on her own. 31. Still supported by her parents a fair bit. I won8217t even get into the new trend of unpaid internships. This is the reality of Gen Y today. They work hard, far harder than their parents. Don8217t get paid for it. Heck, I doubt most Boomers could cut it at the internships that these kids do. Across any actual profession, from lawyers to accountants to zoo keepers, the Boomers have taken all the choice jobs and refuse to retire. Then boomers like you have the gall to insist that they get thrown out on their bums. You sould like an 8220Old Economy Steve8221 meme: The Boomers have royally screwed over Gen Y. The very least they could do is give them couch space while they hunt for work. فرع فلسطين. To all those who give the standard line about moving to Alberta. Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable. You can8217t use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easily. I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless. 8212 Garth 161 NEVER GIVE UP on 09.12.14 at 12:07 pm 111 WhiteKat on 09.11.14 at 11:08 pm I am curious as to why you cannot travel to the US on your Canadian Passport. What about all the dual Citizens in Canada Why is it they are able to go to the USA AfterTheHouseSold: We visited the National Memorial Site of Flight 93 in Pennsylvania. thanks for that Victoria Real Estate Update: your charts suck they just do but I really appreciate your posts, they sum up a lot of observations and I do like your comparisons to US real estate. They coincide with what I8217ve seen in the US. Your narrative is easily understood although wordy. Andrew Woburn: Those twenty-eight pages tell a story that has been completely removed from the 911 Report The Reel Me: Find something called a Roscoe terminal and you can search properties by address, name, parcel number etc. nonplused. So now they have a new mortgage on a house they dont collect rent or utilities on, or at least not very much of it, and a financed disco wagon that self levels. WhiteKat. She likes to gamble, and is good at it. I would watch. Saskatchewan Skeptic. I cant believe the amount of fake, entitled people who scoff at renters. don8217t let the bastards get you down. One day you8217ll wake up, people will respect you in a new way and you8217ll say 8220I don8217t think I want to buy after all8221 surpised: At 11 he left the house to study in one school Don Derc. 911 was an inside job. funny what you can learn watching telly in an hotel room 8220I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless. Garth8221 Fedex drivers with tens of thousands in student debts to pay back might be8230.. Try not to hyperbole. Just sayin8217. 8212 Garth 164 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.14 at 12:20 pm I owe you three responses. The last two will come tomorrow. But prior to the issue, I thank you for the links. They are very interesting. On Friedman criticizing Mises, in the Reason article, I could only find personal criticisms of Mises8217 intolerance. Even if there are substantive criticisms of Mises by Friedman, I point out the following. Friedman identifies himself as a liberal (we would say classic liberal) His self identification does wander however because later he seems himself as a libertarian. He said he believes the Federal Reserve should be abolished, that income tax withholding should be abolished in peacetime, and that he does not favor compulsory education. If a person here suggested the same, it would generate accusationsfrom our host and others that we were wearing tin foil hats. I ignore the dissonance between these ideas and his work on education vouchers, withholding taxes, and rules to run the Fed by. Friedman also noted that Hayek self identified as an. 8216Old Whig8217 not a libertarian. This should be kept in mind when we discuss Hayek and Mises. 165 Longshorebore on 09.12.14 at 12:24 pm To many kids with humanities and arts degrees, There is real work to be done out here in BC if your willing to work there is a job for you don8217t need to hear anymore whiners with fluff degrees bitching they can8217t get a job as a high school teacher. Strive a lil higher in uni go for engineering and sciences or pick up a hammer. Bunch of wusses 166 Rational Optimist on 09.12.14 at 12:38 pm 136 Ret on 09.12.14 at 8:11 am Ret, I am pretty sure I am in your ward in Hamilton. If you can register (youve got a couple hours yet), youll have my vote. 167 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.12.14 at 12:43 pm 140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.14 at 9:09 am Good old Ayn Rand A sci-fi hack that couldnt even spell her first name right( or is that write Smoking Man, help me here). But even Elron Hubbard (another sci-fi hack) was smart enough to turn his novels into a religion. Both authors used their self importance and the stupidity of the masses to create movements that sheeple to this day still spew as gospel. Kenchie, feel sorry for the delusional, for they know not what they speak. Back to you Ann gold is my God Randy. Smoking Man is at the Casino in Niagara Falls already probably writing his book as we speak. I8217m actually looking for ward to seeing it on the shelf one day. Holy hit its got to be chalk full of stuff we never even could conceive This seams appropriate for the huddled masses who follow a religious cult leader blindly. youtubewatchvhBpkCQDprU 168 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.14 at 12:46 pm How is 1.75 trillion in mortgage and personal debt plus maybe 1 trillion in corporate debt possible when all deposits are 1.2 trillion Just asking. Where is the other 1.5 trillion coming from 823082308230823082308230823082308230 Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933. But when the debt was piling on there was inflation, correct Why not deflation to offset the inflation Trying to present inflation as reason and necessity for growth is pathetic. Was recently at a dinner party with my wife and her co-workers along with their spouses. A mix of ages. As we were sitting at the dinner table after consuming a wonderfully prepared dinner I looked around. Everyone that was 50 or up was engaged in conversation. The younger ones were all texting. At the table. Couldn8217t believe it so brought it up in the conversation. They all thought it was just normal. I thought it was rude. Must be getting old I guess. 170 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.14 at 12:55 pm You have seen nothing yet. Kids out of top universities 10 years from now might have 2080 chance of prosperous career at Starbucks or Wallmart if they get lucky and that old timer barista or greeter dies. Cancer rates are up so there is hope. Finding a job would be equivalent to winning from the lottery. Mortgage debt, education debt, car loans debt, you name it. there is debt everywhere and we can not afford to shrink it as it will reduce growth. Debt as driver of growth instead of investment and productivity. رائع. It looks like terminal cancer in its last stages. 171 All markets are now risky on 09.12.14 at 12:57 pm 8220The SampP 500 is at 16.7 times earnings slightly above the historic average. A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore. Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem. Garth8221 Fueled by years of QE, the lowest interest rates in history (emergency interest rate conditions, severely negative real rates), nosebleed levels of margin debt, an extremely optimistic bull-to-bear ratio. I could go on. Nevertheless, this is a setup for more than a simple correction, a perfect recipe for a cascade much lower. Bottom line: current scenario is high risk, low reward. Quote8217OTheDay8230 HowMeenaIsThat WhatAPartyPooper If you can afford to come and buy a million-dollar home, and leave it empty for eight or 10 months at a time, then hey, you can afford to pay more, a surcharge, or a surtax. 8211 Meena Wong SCMP 8211 Vancouver mayoral candidate Meena Wong proposes tax on vacant homes: Owners who leave their expensive homes empty most of the year should be willing to pay surcharge, Wong says 173 Mister Obvious on 09.12.14 at 1:03 pm 8220My parents encouraged me to leave home at 16 and fend for myself.8221 8212821282128212821282128212821282128212 Similar story here. At the age of 19, my father8217s message to me was this approximately this: 8220Either prove you are on a path to independence through education which I will finance provided a reasonable job prospect exists8230 or8230 hit the road and make your own way, son.8221 Perhaps foolishly, I chose to hit the road. But understand me. Dad wasn8217t 8220my buddy8221, he was my father. فرق كبير. The prospect of living under the old man8217s roof any longer was unbearable to me. Not that he was evil (he was a fine man and a war hero as far as I8217m concerned) but it was like living with the day-shift foreman down on the shop floor. I did low-paying grunt work for the next decade or so then paid my own way through school. During that time I shared rent in low end accommodation with as many as three other fellows on their own quest for would have chosen to hang with in any other independence. I can8217t say they were always people I circumstance. I guess was the kind of guy who prefers it the hard way although I have corrected that foolish attitude in my old age. The one thing I have the most difficulty conveying to young people today is how fierce the drive for independence was among my generation. Even if it were possible, sitting in one8217s parent8217s basement waiting for life to somehow begin was seen as a the seventh level of hell by all my contemporaries. 174 Mister Obvious on 09.12.14 at 1:07 pm Correction of butchered paragraph in previous post: I did low-paying grunt work for the next decade or so then paid my own way through school. During that time I shared rent in low end accommodation with as many as three other fellows on their own quest for independence. I cant say they were always people I would have chosen to hang with in any other circumstance. For Ayn Rand Army and others interested: Ayn Rand8217s life, summarized in a web comic: I don8217t know enough to pick sides, posting for your enjoyment. 126 TakingResponsibility on 09.12.14 at 1:58 am Whats actually wrong with inter-generational living I think it sad that birth, child-rearing, education, old-age, and even death have become Outsourced institutionalized. Actually, most of us spend our working years in some institution or another. We are all institutionalized debt slaves. Divide and conquer. Each generation has to start from scratch. Makes for a docile and scared worker. Good for the bottom line. Some cultures are different but in mine at least, people get jealous and will try to cut you down if they see you rise above them. Help you Please. The worse boss I8217ve ever had was the same nationality I am. She did everything to keep me down. أن 8217s موافق. I returned the favor. Now, there is another side of the coin. Sometimes kids are just lazy and entitled. I worked for a startup. Was employee 3, yey The CEO8217s son was a college flunkie and a pot head. But daddy kept saying that little Johnny (25ish) flunked out of college because he was too smart and was getting bored. You see, little Johnny wanted to study Computer Science but just couldn8217t handle the slow pace of a college education. In fact, couldn8217t even register for class in time. الضحك بصوت مرتفع. So, given that college was out of the question (too smart). his love of Computer Science and the fact that his dad owned a freaking startup in Silicon Valley, you would assume that little Johnny would spend all of his days working with his dad, learning from 8216stupid8217 people like me with 20 years of experience and 2 college degrees (that8217s how stupid I am). Oh please. Not once, did he show up in the office the whole time I was there. He still lives with mommy and daddy. They just got the daughter (23) to move out. She8217s a waitress in San Jose. 177 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.14 at 1:20 pm 171 All markets are now risky Not if you look at long term. You are missing one very important point 8211 velocity of money, it is at historical low. Once it picks up (and pick up it will) we will see some inflation (it could be significant) but also even higher growth in the corporate earnings. Most of the quality internationals that pay dividends are very well positioned on the world markets, so expect continues strength and growing earnings (the rest of the world actually grows). Holding money in cash or bonds except for emergency cash or short term TIPS when inflation picks up is stupid. So thank you very much I will keep my stocks. Even if the market corrects 30 (chance of 20-25 ) a well diversified dividend based portfolio would shrink only by 10-12 . The cost of selling now and then buying again at the eventual bottom (presumably you get it exactly right) is not justified by the risk. 178 Nature vs. Nurture on 09.12.14 at 1:24 pm OMG8230you fools are showing your age8230if you are 50 or over8230you have benefited from a different experience than the succeeding generations. You were raised by parents that experienced the great depression, a world war and a 19508217s conflict(that still simmers today and constantly threatens to explode). You always knew where you stood in relation to the larger world, because competition in it8217s most basic form existed. To wit, 8220Sports Day8221, 8220British Bulldog8221, 8220Dodge Ball8221 and other vicious games that we children just made up on the play field, with rules that we defined and actions that were allowed or not. At my elementary school a game was devised and played on the field(farthest away from the prying eyes of adults) called 8220Creamo8221, anyone student could play, all were welcome, the only stipulation was you had to waive your right of complaint when something happened to you. 8220Creamo8221 was a hodgepodge of rugby, football, soccer, dodge ball, running, kicking, throwing the ball through the goal posts. Goals were important but if someone really got 8220creamed8221, well that was excellent too. The scrum was where the vicious action occurred and each and every person had to decide if they belonged in the scrum. Every person that went on the field acknowledged the inherent risk of getting 8220Creamed8221 and would deny all knowledge that such an activity actually existed. It wasn8217t exactly 8220The Lord of the Flies8221, but it was good training. Given the choice of 8220Hopscotch8221 or nearly killing each other, we chose to play the maiming game. Why Because children are just little animals and the 8220basic instinct8221 is inclined towards wildness and animal behavior. Society8217s mandate is and has been to integrate this energy into more productive activities. To make productive citizens out of the 8220barbarians8221. It is through our 8220barbarian8221 behavior that we, in time, begin to understand and exercise control of our inate drives. This used to be accomplished by a maiming injury acquired during play or by corporal punishment doled out by adults for partaking in maiming play. The net result was the experience of temporary pain, which conditioned us for future endeavours, some of which would also leave physical, emotional and psychic marks. In life, all good things must come to an end, and eventually the 8220adults8221 found out just what the hell was happening out there and stopped our fun. Succeeding generations have been 8220nurtured8221, they will never know the joy of 8220creaming8221 a smaller guy on the field(because that8217s always the rule, if you want to succeed, never try to 8220cream someone outside of your weight class). In removing the painful experiences of childhood, we have created a class of individual that is currently incapable of exercising their own 8220basic instincts8221. These individuals are not to be blamed for something that they were not allowed to experience. You better hope that they don8217t figure out just how rigged the game is. Bad behavior at 8 or 9 is one thing8230bad behavior in your twenties is called8230A Revolution. 171 All markets: That8217s why I converted all my defined contribution pension holdings into money markets recently. It8217s not much 8211 under 100k 8211 but there is too much risk for the (potential) reward left in the market. I may be gambling, but since I do it to protect my assets and not to speculate, I agree to pay the price of forgone higher returns for the security that I got. 180 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.14 at 1:26 pm Lets not forget also that the historical PE are from time when alternative investments (government bonds) actually paid positive interest that was much higher than the zero or even negative interest rates policies these days. In absence of incentive to invest in bonds the stock markets will keep going higher and higher. Dow 20 k is certainty, I am thinking more of Dow 30 k in the next 3-7 years. Plan accordingly. By US law, Canadians born in the USA, who have not formally renounced US citizenship, are required to travel to USA on an American passport despite holding a Canadian passport. Until recently, US border guards rarely enforced this law, but this is starting to change with USA8217s recent attempts through FATCA to enforce citizenship based taxation on non-US residents. Please warn any Canadian friends who were born in USA, travelling on a Canadian passport, that they may be queried at the border as to whether or not they are tax compliant with the IRS. USA requires annual tax reports and 8216Foreign Bank Account Reports8217 from those it considers to be 8216US persons8217 (birth in USA, one or more American parents, snowbirds who overstay, green card holders) even if they do not live in the USA and do not earn any US sourced income. 182 Drug Ford (aka Al Haig) on 09.12.14 at 1:32 pm Settle down, I am in charge here. More to follow, Ford Nation (Garth, your regular deliveries will continue so don8217t worry. There will be a slight price premium) 183 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.14 at 1:34 pm bonds are actually called 8216return free risk8217. Only government debt. 8212 Garth 8220ps. To all those who give the standard line about moving to Alberta. Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable. You cant use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easily.8221 Indeed, and great point. There8217s huge unemploymentunderemployment in Canada8217s tech sector left by the departure of Nortel. A large number of engineers with skills more specific to the telecom sector are still running around Canada, unemployed or underemployed, glutting up the resume submissions. Even relatively basic minimally advertised positions in the telecom engineering sector are receiving in excess of 50 resumes from highly qualified and often extremely talented individuals. Its good that government didn8217t bail that bloated (and somewhat fraudulently managed) Nortel pig out in the early 2000s, but inflating almost a trillion dollars worth of CMHC subprime insured mortgage debt into the housing market wasn8217t really a good answer either. RE 131: Comment from Porsche in response to Garth: Annual immigration us 0.7 of the population, without which we would have decline. Garth This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast That was a terrible comment from Porsche that should have been deleted but I guess Garth left it there for himher to hang himherself. I am ashamed to be Canadian and white when I seehearread things like that. I work everyday with so-called brown people who, in addition, to be hard working, smart, humorous, attractive people, contribute so much to this society. What does the skin color have to do with anything. I can see this idiotic way of thinking is diminishing in the new generations, and that is a good thing. My children seem to be virtually color-blind. Nothing to do with this blog except for the fact that people who have not done too well in life (even if they drive imaginary Porsche) like to blame other people for their misfortunes. Like coddled childrenadultettes (now we are back on the topic of the blog). Blame the renters, the owners, the public sector workers with fat pensions, the CHMC, Mark, whoever you want but it will not change the fact that you are the one who made the decisions that brought you where you are now. I try to remain a silent observer and learn something, but that was really too much to let it go unnoticed. 21 Casual Observer This was written during a time when the US was on the gold standard. The US Govt could not have engaged in the same amount of money printing that is going on throughout the world today. Of course they could, and they did. The increase in monetary base during that time was absolutely unprecedented in US history. And what do you think caused the credit bubble of the 20s anyways Newly found gold deposits I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless. Garth Good point. Actually FedEx drivers are usually independent contractors who own their own trucks. Some do hire employees do drive as some own multiple trucks and routes. I have heard also that a UPS driver can be a great gig. The harder and faster they work the more they get paid8230 They are not stuck in an office. They are free of bosses most of the day. Under employed teachers and Egyptologists might want to check it out. Definitely an honest way to earn a living. Not much chance to slack off without getting noticed. doug ford to replace rob on TO mayor ballot. if the ford bros can8217t crash 416 than nothing can 24 Doug in London These Boomer parents should know better. Having seen real estate corrections before (I remember one in the early 1980s and another in the early 1990s) they should be advising their Millennial kids that another is long overdue whether they live with their parents or not. We had one in 2008, before it was arrested by 0 interest rates and opening of mortgage floodgates. This is the problem people have the attention span of a squirrel. 160 Keith on 09.12.14 at 11:52 am 8220Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable. You cant use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easily.8221 Complete BS from 160 Keith. Engineers ARE interchangeable based on their process-thinking education. It8217s not the engineering degree specialization, it8217s the competencies that have been learned after graduation. 191 miketheengineer on 09.12.14 at 1:50 pm You are 100 correct. You said, 8220Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable8221 In 2009, when the auto industry collapsed in Ontario, I thought about going out west to Alberta. I had no contacts out there, no connection, no family. So I applied to whatever I could find on the net that was advertising. I had a Chemical Engineering Degree and a second one in Science (Chemistry), and 15 years experience in Auto Manufacturing. I could not get any responses to my applications, none. In the year that I was out of work, I sent out around 2000 applications (or more I lost count). You see in Alberta, they have programs, like 8220Petroleum Engineer8221 etc, and when they advertise for a position8230they are very specific and want the 10 out 10 candidate8230or the guy with the experience with 8220rotating 8221 equipment, and they want like 10 years experience as a Class 4 Operating Engineer (or starting up process units). So they end up taking on the guy from the Arabic countries that come here is newcomers who have this experience working in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, that has this 10 years experience. It appears to me that manufacturing experience means nothing to the oil and gas industry. You see I was labelled the 8220auto guy8221 and they were looking for the 8220oil guy8221. I would have had better luck if I was welder or heavy truck driver. So I stayed in Ontario8230.Woo Hoo for me p. s. I am gainfully employed now in manufacturing in Ontario, with a wonderful boss, and decent co-workers, with a job that actually has benefits. I thank GOD, every day that I walk into this building for my job. perhaps on is housing a 8220Renegade8221 in their basement 8220Every boomer I know has spent most of the lives and earnings on ensuring their kids have the best of everything and never wanting for anything. 8221 This is funny because I was about to write in to state that I, as the child of Boomers, probably have gone a little too far in giving time and money to my own offspring because I had so little of both from Mom and Dad and Step Dad. I did have a pretty good time of it until I was 9 at which point all hell broke loose with all the grown ups deciding that the family thing was a drag. I had to grow up amp fend for myself and my brother. We still had a roof over our heads and food but not much else. (Mom, are you reading this I hope not. 8230 On second thought you8217d never recognize yourself anyway) Having parental units kind of abandon the family at such a young age scarred me. (Can ya tell) 8211 as a result I do work very hard and am careful with money. But also as a result I hate to see my own kid left to dangle 8211 if my young adult needs something I do what I can to help. Finally there is the very real, very relevant point that the economy is in the shtter. Housing and food cost a tremendous chunk of a person8217s income if he or she is making starter wages. Add in transportation and perhaps a student loan payment and there8217s really no hope except to get used to doing the same thing every day until you die. I don8217t have to let my kid do that and so I won8217t. Been there. Struggled out of it (sorta) and am not enough of a queen bitch to watch someone I love hurt that way. Feeling like my dog just died, Stay strong Mr Ford8230 171 All markets are now risky Trying to time the market. are we History has shown. a fool8217s errand. 8220Complete BS from 160 Keith. Engineers ARE interchangeable based on their process-thinking education. Its not the engineering degree specialization, its the competencies that have been learned after graduation.8221 Sure, we know that, as engineers. Too bad HR personnel, who are in the position of screening the resumes and act as 8216hiring managers8217 don8217t. This is why so many jobs apparently go unfilled, while people who could fill them complain that they don8217t receive legitimate consideration. Actually asking the on-the-ground engineers what skills and what qualifications are needed to really do a job seems to be an after-thought these days. I remember during the dot-com boom, lots of Mechanical, and even Civil Engineers easily found work in the softwarecomputing field, but these days, it seems employers are notoriously inflexible and not really motivated to fill empty positions. Instead, holding out for TFW8217s or for a 8216perfect8217 yet desperate (for a low salary) candidate to come along. I share the same undergrad as my brother. Explain to me what work someone with in-depth education and internships in aerospace structures and modelling of heart valves would do out in Alberta. Sure, you can apply your skills to solving most engineering problems. But whether an a petroleum equipment manufacturing company will actually recognize the usefulness of your skills is an altogether different matter. See post 191 by the miketheengineer. Stories like that abound among engineers. And his education is much closer to what is required in the OampG sector than my brother was. Non-engineers simply don8217t get it. The number of qualified engineers out there and the number of qualified foreign trained engineers coming here. Very difficult for a young engineer to start out. And this is after hearing all the lectures about how an Arts and Science degree is useless and how engineering leads to good jobs. Most BBABComm grads I know are better off than most engineers I know. Far less workload, in university, and at work. Moreover, if you did get a job, they8217ll just use your supposed lack of experience to dramatically underpay you. Starting salary for aerospace engineers at Bombardier is around 50K. Most business majors who get a decent bank job downtown make more. Hot realtor babes can pull in six figures. Canada hates engineers and technical talent. 199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.12.14 at 3:26 pm 195 Smoking Man on 09.12.14 at 2:26 pm Feeling like my dog just died, Stay strong Mr Ford OK Smoky heres the scoop, Rob out as Mayor, Doug in as Mayor, Rob going for council, Michael Ford or 8220Mikey,8221 as his uncles Rob and Doug call him is on his way to becoming a Toronto city councilor as well. So there go have a beer and chill. There8217s a whole lot of Fords parked in the driveway. 53 said8230. PS: My family is a microcosm of the cultural dichotomy: my Western European parent was happy to kick us out at age 18, but my Asian parent said no, its a waste of money. Funnily enough, my Euro parent blamed my Asian parent for being too soft on us WHICH IS WHY IT IS DIFFERENT HERE AS MUCH AS I HATE TO ADMIT IT. 202 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 09.12.14 at 4:06 pm Canada hates engineers and technical talent. It certainly looks that way. I8217m an IT worker who was fortunate to get into a public sector position relatively late in life. The working conditions of IT people in corporations have been steadily degraded by outsourcing, immigration, and the TFW program. Annual immigration us 0.7 of the population, without which we would have decline. Garth This is not accurate. We have a population of probably not more than 35 million (we can only estimate8211 I have learned as a public sector worker that there are no truly reliable figures on stuff like this). Every year more than half a million newcomers enter Canada. You have the 265,000 8220regular8221 immigrants, you have approximately 200,000 8220Temporary8221 Foreign Workers, you have about 100,000 8220international students8221, and there surely must be some illegals. BTW the immigration and student figures are readily searchable on federal government websites, and TFW figures have been reported many times by news media. Commenters on this site have linked all this stuff before. (There are also millions 8212 yes, millions 8212 of people who have Canadian citizenship and passports living outside the country in places like Lebanon and Hong Kong. ) So while the exact figure cannot be determined from the low-quality data available, it8217s clearly more than 0.7 a year. The notion that without this influx 8220we8217d have decline8221 is also mistaken. Heavy immigration more likely depresses family formation in the host population. What a dandy collection of anonymous paranoid xenophobes we have on this site. 8212 Garth Miketheengineer I had a Chemical Engineering Degree and a second one in Science (Chemistry), and 15 years experience in Auto Manufacturing 821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212821282128212- What about the lithium ion battery revolution and companies like Tesla, electric bikes, scooters, solar, wind etc8230. One would think there is plenty of opportunity and demand for engineering expertise Perhaps not in sticks and stones Canada but elsewhere. 26 8220For some reason I found the term adultettes hilarious.8221 And re: Garth8217s rebuke 46: The term 8220adultettes8221 seems too respectful. How about 8220adultescents8221 or perhaps 8220adultweenies8221 Then top it off with Yul Brynner8217s comments in the following clip. Garth can be Yul (up until the gun fight): As a prelude to a years-long decline. Equities will likely correct and recover within a few months. More importantly, financial assets are 100 liquid. Real estate turns illiquid in a downturn. Consequently, elevated risk. Garth Nobody sells house within months of purchase. Risk is mitigated and smoothed over long period of time. IE years. Btw you only loose money when down if you sell like any financial assets. Even if prices stagnates you still win. House is a utility. How about that Irrelevant when 92 leverage is used to buy houses 8211 as CMHC numbers published here show. (Nobody gets 92 margin to buy equities.) When house prices fall, you can be assured of a flood of emotional sellers 8211 people who bought for capital gains, not losses. 8212 Garth 207 Just my 2 cents on 09.12.14 at 5:31 pm I think Garth is absolutely right, 24 is an adult and should behave accordingly. I see so many kids that age who have an expectation of adult rewards (I8217m an adult, I can do what I want) but who assume as few responsibilities as possible. Parents who encourage this are doing their kid a great disservice. We got flak from well-meaning friends and relatives who thought it was unfair to make a 10 year old make his bed before leaving for school and make his own lunch the night before. We thought it taught time management and planning. They thought it was mean that we said if he wanted extra 8216stuff and things8217 that he pick up a paper route. We thought he should learn that 8216stuff8217 was not free and you had to be willing to work for it. There was an expectation that he help out with whatever needed doing in the house, because he was part of a family unit and that everyone should do their part. He had an allowance and was taught about credit, savings, debt etc but his allowance was never tied to what he did in the house, nor would we ever dream of paying him to attain good marks in school. When he graduated high school, he decided not to go to college right away, so we said sure, you can be home, but you must carry the equivalent of a full time job and you must pay rent, your own car insurance, buy your own clothes, etc. I overheard a conversation where a friend asked him where his parents got off making him pay when he was just living at home and my son laughed and said they don8217t want me to be useless and not know how to take care of myself. He got it We also figured doing menial labour in our small town would have him in college in less than a year and we were right. While he thinks it8217s good to do what you must to pay your bills, he also didn8217t want a lifetime of it when there was an alternative. Fast forward to now, he is 22 and has been married for a year. He finished his 3rd year of college last year, dropped out for a year and they saved money for his grad year, which he started this month. In his year off, he worked 2 part-time jobs for minimum wage and he found there were lots of jobs that would 8216put food on the table8217 but they weren8217t fun or glamorous. He worked in a feed store primarily and he said a lot of people his age won8217t take any old job to start out, and then they say there are no jobs. In that one year off school, they saved enough to pay his tuition for the full year, they have money set aside for savings and they8217ve donated to charity. They live in a basement suite close to the school and while they are very frugal, their life is very full with friends, dinners, pot lucks, bike rides, other sports, art and music and they don8217t seem to be deprived at all. They don8217t have cable, share one old flip phone and he bikes to school. When they got engaged, they sent me an Excel spreadsheet and asked if I could look over their budget for when they were married and see if it looked reasonable 8211 you can only imagine how happy it made me that they were thinking of things like that. We always helped him when we could, but often our help came in the form of time spent talking and assuring him he had the ability to sort out his problem and kicking around ideas until he had come up with a resolution. I think they have a great foundation for their marriage and future and that we would have robbed him greatly if we had simply handed him everything and given him the message that he was NOT capable and could not figure anything out unless it was provided by us. IsItJustMe8230 OrIsThatLeaderIllustration8230 LookingMoreDoggoneFlummoxed8230 WithEachCTLF5 NoteToGT: Just between the two of us, I thought the 8216TeaserTrailer8217 was outrageously GoodSport. NoteToWhiteKat: TrueEnough. Even those without formal ties to UncleSam are occasionally obliged to navigate his bureaucratic maze8230 something to do with W8-BEN8217s. The stock market doomers and conspiracy nuts make me laugh. Why does the stock market go up even if 50 of people don8217t save Because the vast majority of stocks are held by the top 5 and corporations. This makes sense since logically they have that much more money to save. Nothing evil or sinister about that. If there is a wideningn wage gap between the top and middle it follows that those top 5 stock purchases would drive shares up. But it also means someone poorer can get their piece buy owning the shares too even if their demographics purchases are less substantial or influential on stock price8230 As for the stock market crashing. مه. I am a long ways from retirement and the stocks aren8217t a leveraged investment for me so no one is gonna force me to liquidate them. Unlike a mortgaged house or the small amount of stocks I buy on margin. for entertainment purposes. 8220Explain to me what work someone with in-depth education and internships in aerospace structures and modelling of heart valves would do out in Alberta.8221 You (or your bro8217) might check out becoming a DAR or finding work as an aircraft structures engineer within a company that has received Transport Canada delegation as a DAO. See pertinent links on Transport Canada8217s Delegations Information System web site, below: Or, check out working for an aircraft structural repair andor modification shop (aka an Approved Aircraft Maintenance Organization (AMO). Aircraft modifications is a major part of the Canadian aviation industry. A few of the major players in BC Kelowna Flightcraft, Cascade Aerospace and CHC Helicopters. I8217m not sure who the main players in Alberta are 8211 maybe Kenn Borek Air. In Ontario, there is Field Aviation, Voyageur Airways and Deca Aviation. I believe the Midland, ON based company, Avionics Design Services wasstill is looking for a structures engineer for its office out at YVR (VancouverRichmond airport). See link here: These companies andor individuals are given a Delegation of Authority by Transport Canada to 8220make findings of compliance8221 to the pertinent airworthiness requirements, for aircraft modifications. Specialized workknowledge that the not taught in engineering schoo ls (see exceptions below), meaning there aren8217t a lot of competent engineers working in it (compared to other engineering disciplines). Hence, it seems jobs in the field are somewhat 8220age-proof8221 (at least, if you8217re able to work for the smaller companiesmod shops). You don8217t get the knowledge and experience from 8220engineering school8221 (except perhaps if you graduated from one with an aeronautical engineering discipline like U of T, Carleton U. or Ryerson U. andor had specialization within a Mech Eng. program. On top of those places, Boeing offers its own structures engineering courses (at your or your employer8217s expense, of course). See the TCCA link above andor contact your local TCCA Aircraft Certification Office (Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Moncton) for more information. You would have to take TCCA8217s Aircraft Certification Specialty Course (paid for by yourself or by your employer) in order to (eventually) get delegation as a DAR or as an Authorized Person within a DAO. Also, TCCA itself was recently hiring Aircraft Certification Engineers with specialization in (among other areas), aircraft structures. The thing about working for them is, you will be removed from being a hands-on 8220engineer8221 and would be a paper-shuffling bureaucrat (although a well-paid one with benefitspension). Still, the work can be interesting if you can tolerate the politics and bureaucracy. Best of success (since I don8217t believe in luck). 74 Smoking Man on 09.11.14 at 9:08 pm 8220Its what being alive is all about. 8221 You think that being alive is about feeding your ego. It8217s actually about putting your ego aside, and learning to love the people around you. Stop trying to pursue your own selfish desires. This will be your greatest challenge. We should (shall) not judge and brag. It is different now it is not the 508217s, 608217s. 142 Inglorious Investor you are right on the spot. The public sector worker should not get more paybenefits than the private sector. The private sector create wealthmoney through goods and services which pay taxes whereas, the government wealth is obtained by taxes. Do you really believe that neither my brother or I know how the aerospace industry works or that we need advice internet randoms I8217m in the RCAF. He did find work in his field at a well known aircraft engine maker in Toronto. The point of my narrative was to illustrate the very real challenges that young people experience today. The old line that 8220They should be independent.8221 And some internet links are hardly relevant. The tone of Boomers like Garth and yourself comes off as, 8220Let them eat cake.8221 I hope Gen Y remembers this when the Boomers start agitating politically for higher state pensions. No issues taking care of my parents. Other boomers Couldn8217t give s fig. 214 Rabi Dmangycur35 on 09.12.14 at 11:44 pm 35 Happy Renting re Ayn Rand cartoon link: Thanx for the post. I am a big Ayn Rand fan and have all her books and plays and have read all her newsletters. She must have been extremely intelligent but not that smart (the two are not mutually inclusive). I love this blog site and have read all the archives up to Nov 2018 (so far). I appreciate the task GT has undertaken armed only with a whip and a chair. I understand the fact that very few seem to understand the fundamentals Garth is sharing with readers, but many are quick to argue with the conclusions. It appears Alan Greenspan fell into the same trap that ensnared Ayn in the end: an over reliance on intelligence and an under reliance on smarts. A common trap of highly intelligent people. Can anyone see the logic flaws in this Does a carpenter employed by the private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same NO82308230the govt does not create wealth. أبدا. They build crap they don8217t need most of the time. The private sector carpenter creates wealth by being employed and whose paycheck goes into the economy and whose TAXES PAY govt workers. Govt workers are paid with taxes so all they are doing is recycling money created by the private sector. And in today8217s economy82308230the private sector is more pissed off than they have ever been as the cost of living keeps going up despite the lies by the govt, meanwhile the govt workers keep getting bigger and bigger paychecks and pensions that go with them. I thought you were smarter than this Shawn82308230and beware, class warfare is soon to come. 213 Keith (assuming you come back to this particular post) I didn8217t intend or think my 8220tone8221 came across as 8220Let them eat cake8221. Was not my intention. Was only trying to offer some helpfood for thought from my scope of knowledgeexperience, for what it isisn8217t worth, since I8217m in a similar situation as yours: engineer (electricalelectronics), specialized (aerospaceaviation), middle-aged, technically obsolete. Tried to move away from aviation back in 821707 by moving to Alberta when the demand for engineers and labour in general was virtually being hyped as 8220they8217ll hire anyone with a pulse. Turned out not to be so (naturally). Turned out that despite the whining in Alberta that companies can8217t find enough qualified people, they still cherry-pick who they8217ll hire or even interview. Job prospects for electrical engineers in Alberta wereare great 8211 if you have background and 8220Canadian8221 experience in electrical power generation, distribution and substation design, or instrumentation and controls (IampC) systems. Seems to be a similar situation in Ontario today, except instead of instrumentation and control jobs, seems to be more focus on 8220automation8221 and robotics programming jobs for EE8217s. (With the loss of manufacturing jobs in Ontario in recent years, darned if I know what they expect to 8220automate8221). I thought with my background in FMEAsystems safety analysis I could 8220transfer8221 over to the IampC field, what with that field8217s need for process control hazard (HAZOP) analysis, safety risk management, safety integrity level analysis, etc. Had one interview with an IampC consulting engineering company that said they farmed that safety analysis stuff out to another party, and as far as the IampC techie stuff they did, well, they 8220didn8217t see a fit8221 within their organization for me and couldn8217t justify taking on someone from outside their industry because of the implications to how much they would have to bill their customer (i. e. higher bill because of my learning curve). Had one agency tell me the engineering companies prefer to hire the young engineering grads fresh out of school because they can pay them peanuts and 8220train8221 (i. e. beat them into shape), rather than hire us older dudes who have some proven ability to 8220think8221. Calgary Herald ran an article at the time profiling how oil patch companies were screaming they didn8217t have enough people, yet were picky about who they hired because after working so hard to earn their good reputation, they were wary about damaging that reputation by hiring just anyone. Blah, blah, blah. I came to the realization that the dark secret not told to undergrad students at engineering school is that once you get your first professional engineering job, you8217ll likely be pigeon-holed in that particular type of work or industry. The problem seems especially acute for electricalelectronics engineers since the field is so diverse and changes so rapidly, particularly in anything to do with electronics and software. And that8217s another kicker: the electronics industry in Canada that existed 20 to 30 years ago, no longer exists. What once seemed like the bright shining star in Canada8217s economic horizon, has essentially vaporized (think Mitel, Nortel, Jerrold, many others I8217ve long since forgotten about). In BC, electronics companies that existed in the 808217s and 908217s are gone with just a remnant of one or two that somehow reincarnated themselves. Then, to complicate matters, the electronics industry has shifted more toward software engineering and digital complex programmable logic devices (CPLDs) and gate arrays (FPGAs) over the past 20 years. One needs to learnuse software tools (VHDL, Verilog) to design the hardware logic used to program the chips. During the same time frame, along has come the growth of the internet and IT, cell phones, wi-fi, CDMA (already obsolete), CDMA-II, HSPA, LTE, and Whoa Is Me. In the past, one specialized in either hardware or software. Today, seems companies want a person who can 8220do it all8221 8211 hardware, software, ITinternet (and radio frequency (RF) circuit design, which is a specialty all its own). All the while, you8217re supposed to keep up with this stuff. What the frig kind of life is that, trying to chase after and keep up with this stuff, particularly if you8217re a family person I8217ve come to the conclusion that the career counselors andor HR people who concocted the idea of 8220transferable skills8221 don8217t know their heads from their butts when they try to apply their transferable skills schlock to engineers and most anyone else who works in a specialized profession. On top of the above, if you happen to be a software engineer or work in IT, your knowledge half-life is now down to only about 18 months to two years (according to IEEE and one or two other articles I8217ve read). By age 35, you8217re too old to work as a software or IT engineer, at least, in the U. S. This is another dark secret that probably isn8217t being explained to the young engineering undergrads. I concur with one of the other previous comments: that depending on one8217s area of specialty, Canada isn8217t a very good place to have an engineering career. But with the off-shoring of industry and jobs in the U. S. over the past 20 years, according to blog comments I8217ve read, it sounds like the situation in the U. S. isn8217t all that great either (again, depending on area of specialty). 218 liquidincalgary on 09.14.14 at 6:52 am 21 Casual Observer says: because of the collapse in the velocity of money collapse with housing now employing more than OampG, how has velocity collapsed houses changing hands so frequently, are these not the definition of 8216velocity of money8217 check your definition, then re-read your comment and my response to it8230pleaseOn one side of the spectrum there are Modi Bhakts who automatically think using Euclid039s quotCommon notionsquot (if ab and bc hence ca) they are desh bhakts too. And then on the other side of the spectrum are those who loathe Modi, whom the former extremists call Congress supporter, aaptard, Pappu ka chamcha . Kejri ka chamcha . anti-Hindu, sickular, terrorist, Pakistani, Italian, etc. To both those highly disillusioned people of the two extremes, I would like to draw some sort of balance by showing them if Modi is doing well or not based on the following 8 key indicators GDP Growth: One of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country039s economy. Bigger the number, better the economy. Before Modi: 6.6 After Modi: 7.6 (Win) Consumer Inflation: Defined as an increase in the overall price level. A consumer facing inflation that occurs at the rate of 10 per year will able to buy 10 less goods at the end of the year if his or her income stays the same. Smaller the number, happier the consumers Before Modi: 9.46 After Modi (or I should say Raghuram Rajan): 4.91 (Win) Rupee against dollar . Appreciation of Rupee against dollar brings down the cost of all imports like crude oil, gold etc and is a sign towards its economic prosperity and augmentation (even though it has some adverse impacts on the exports) Before Modi: -9.4 After Modi: -5.7 (Appreciated i. e. Win), one of the reasons why fuel prices are down. Sensex Performance: Healthy Sensex can create a sense of confidence about the direction of the economy. As prices continue to rise, more investors come into the market, which builds on the momentum. Falling sensex have the opposite effect. People feel pessimistic about the economy. People hold back on their spending, especially on nonessential items. This slows down economic growth because consumer spending is a key component of the gross domestic product. Before Modi: 18.7 After Modi: -9.7 (Unhealthy i. e. Loss) Industrial Production Growth . Growth is related to consumer demand for the new products or services offered by the industry. Higher growth means more consumer demand meaning more surplus money. Before Modi: -0.10 After Modi: 2.40 (Win) Home Loan Rate: The lower the interest rate, the more willing people are to borrow money to purchases houses. When consumers pay less in interest, this gives them more money to spend, which can create a ripple effect of increased spending throughout the economy. Before Modi: 10.25 After Modi: 9.55 (Win) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) . FDI offers a source of external capital and increased revenue. It can be a tremendous source of external capital for a developing country, which can lead to economic development, also resulting in new jobs leading better employment rate and conditions. Before Modi: 24.3 billion After Modi: 40 billion (Win) Besides, the aforementioned economy related growth, Modi sarkar has started many new initiatives to name a few - Jan Dhan Yojana: Anyone can now open an account in a bank LPG subsidy reforms: Barring LPG subsidy to customers who earn more than Rs. 10 lakh per annum. The amount saved was used to give over five lakh new LPG connections to those who still use firewoods or kerosene stoves for cooking. Swachh Bharat Mission: Cleaning India, building more toilets, waste management and waste segregation . India-Bangladesh land boundary agreement: Bringing an end to one of the world039s most difficult border disputes that has kept thousands of people in stateless limbo for almost 70 years. Real Estate regulation: Apart from making the process transparent and keeping checks and balances in the form of a Real Estate Regulatory Authority, the law drafted by Housing Ministry headed by M. Venkaiah Naidugave confidence to home-buyers. The rest include: Ganga Rejuvenation, One Rank One Pension Scheme, Make in India, Digital India etc. I leave the rest to your kind judgement. Disclaimer: I am not a Modi Bhakt, but I do feel Modi is creating a true sense of optimism in the minds of the countrymen. 384.8k Views middot View Upvotes middot Not for Reproduction I compiled these points after an argument with one of my friends who said that all this government is doing is marketing and cheap politics. I did not have a definite answer at the top of my mind then, but given the scores of reports I had read as part of my official work, I had a fair bit of an idea that he might be off the mark on that comment. One request I have from you before you read on please keep an open mind. For the duration of this answer, forget about what youve been hearing in the media and just focus on the facts below (these have been accumulated from various sources, including other answers on Quora after verification). We know about the whole story around our strong GDP etc. here are few details about the same which are not being discussed on news panels as they are busy with beef and intolerance stories: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is an index which details out the growth of various sectors in an economy such as mining, electricity and manufacturing. If you say Make in India is not working: IIP as of 25 sept 2018 stands at 2.8 (was -0.1 in 2018 under UPA). Make in India is a first of its kind initiative which encourages companies to manufacture products in India. I would go ahead and attribute some of this stupendous growth in indices to this initiative feel free to disagree and please let me know if you think otherwise Manufacturing, the most neglected sector in our country for decades, is now one of the biggest contributor to GDP growth Read online to understand why a fledgling economy would always need a dominant agriculture and manufacturing sector (This should help you get started: Manufacturing very important to India: Willy C Shih ) Fiscal deficit target retained at 4.1 pc of GDP for current fiscal and 3.6 pc in FY 16 Control over the double digit inflation figures, fall in the customer price inflation to less than 5, a drastic cut in the current account deficit on trade, fall in the commodity prices etc. Fuel price deregulation to avoid subsidies in the future and also to avoid sudden increasedecrease leading to artificial gaps and pressure on the market (read: common people) --- if you think subsidies are good (as certain state govern ments would make you believe), please consult someone with an economics background to understand how subsidies actually hurt people in the long run and are a mechanism by which governments make popular, mass-pleasing decisions while actually hurting the economy all the while making you believe that you are paying less when the balance actually comes out of your own pocket EDIT . based on a comment on this answer, I039m including a couple of articles for your reference on this point: 1. imf. orgexternalpub. . and 2. IMF applauds India for cutting fuel subsidy and just to add some more facts: Fact 1: Decontrolling or deregulating the petrol prices mean that, the government will no longer be subsidizing petrol prices and the prices will be purely linked to the international crude prices. However, perfect deregulation won039tcan039t happen overnight and you have to bring some sort of sanity back into the system in small steps. Fact 2: India039s total fuel subsidy has fallen to Rs 22,000 crore in April-December from Rs 76,000 crore in the year-ago period ( Indias crude oil import bill for current fiscal may fall 45 - The Economic Times ). Fact 3: And just to elaborate on what UPA did and did not do - Spending on subsidies surged, education and health lagged during 10 years of UPA - Times of India to quote - quotMuch higher on the list, at number three, is petroleum as higher fuel subsidies have pushed up the allocation more than 18 times to around Rs 65,200 crore in 2018-14, compared with Rs 3,567 crore in the revised estimates for 2004-05quot PSUs in profit (BSNL reporting operating profit after almost a decade others doing well too) Eased out the process to start private companies in a bid to foster entrepreneurship hold on your horses on this one, we might see some real action in the coming years, but even the flurry of startups you see around you is not a coincidence do you remember the last time more than half the TV ads were about new-age startups Ofcourse, not all of it can be attributed to the government, but it is because of the small efforts they are taking that is fostering such a culture in the country Whe n you say it is a suit-boot ki sarkaar, maybe you are forgetting that we are not a socialist country by nature you and I both need jobs, and for that you need the correct environment around you to make sure that there are enough jobs or that the innate spirit of entrepreneurship is being promoted More proof: India will become a 4-5 trillion economy in a very short period of time, London-based leading economist Lord Meghnad Desai The biggest achievement - at a time when the global economy is showing signs of gloom and fear (Europe et al.), all analysts predict stupendous growth for India but you and I would never realize that sitting from the comfort of our rooms (especially with our TVs on) Black money promise from manifesto: Undisclosed income worth over Rs 16,000 crore detected in 20 months Rs. 1200 Crores worth of assets seized between March 2018 - December 2018 Another promise from manifesto: First government to implement one rank one pay for the armed forces (which had been stuck in the legislature for decades now) there are still issues to be ratified but atleast we have a start Remember the issue with rotting grains and artificial price inflations during the last year of UPA-II Well, the same authorities have seized over 130,000 tonnes of pulses since the imposition of stock-holding limit on the commodity Despite possible political backlash, the government opposed the release of the juvenile culprit from the Nirbhaya case that eventually led to the much needed passage of the new juvenile law regarding such heinous crimes while we were busy mocking our judiciary, you must realize that the judiciary can only do what the law asks it to do. So blaming the jury is actually insane. If you have to blame someone, blame those who supported the initial ruling (I dont want to get into the politics of it, but might be a good idea for you to read online as to who these people are and what are their political allegiances) Some non-conventional steps that are giving astonishing results (with minimal coverage by national media): Changes to the APMC Act: The govt. asked the state govt. to delist fruits and vegetables from the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act to eliminate middlemen, prevent hoarding and check inflation Centre lead LED bulbs distribution has started in a few states more to join soon LED bulb push is already helping India save Rs. 2.71 crore every day with only these handful of states and with the drive in its initial stages only Why should we bother about Urea, eh Well, the fertilizer ministry has now announced full-capacity production of neem-coated urea - using completely neem coated urea could save the country about Rs 10,000 crore by lowering the usage and stopping its use for industrial purposes but yeah, who cares about thousands of crores Efforts are in full swing for the 4200-crore quotJal-Marg Vikasquot for inland waterways between Haldia and Allahabad. Indian transport just sees 7 as water transport039s share, much lower than the developed countries. This will now boost coal transportation and increase revenue for one of the busiest and historical ports of the country. Just an add-on: these arent the only ports being developed in fact according to recent articles almost all major ports in India are getting revamped keeping similar ideas for trade routes in mind (why werent upgradation of such routes explored for the past several decades) Toilets for all government schools - might be a small thing for you and me but think of those children and then ponder as to why this was not done for the last 50 years NITI Ayog instead of Planning commission - read online why the former is better equipped to bring about change (hint: implementable strategy Vs. khayali pulav) BureaucracyMinistries: Ministers and bureaucrats have been advised to report at 9 AM, a thought hitherto unthinkable. Bureaucrats have been asked to function as Civil Servants and not as the Queen of the Democracy. This is the single most step that will affect India as a whole. If implemented in letter and spirit, this will remove inefficiency and lack of will among the policy makers and implementers PMO panel repealed around 1741 obsolete laws (what were we doing for the past decade) BSF Commander on the recent dispute around the LoC: We don039t think twice before pulling the trigger now as we know Delhi is with us Growth in electricity generation: he has promised full electrification by 2019 and that is why you see so many efforts (including push for FDI) in this sector the figures: 2018-14: 17,769 MW and 2018-15: 22,566 MW. This growth makes India one of the fastest growing markets for electricity infrastructure equipment. To add to the above: Transmission lines commissioned rise by 32 (in circuit kms) - 2018-14: 16,743 Kms and 2018-15: 22,101 kms Over 30,000 MW of stalled power generation capacity has been revived in the last 18 months, and the ministry is working to ensure that there are no problems related to electricity supplies in the coming 10 years Clear focus on green energy with multiple projects already starting in the North-East and also in collaboration with neighbors like Nepal and Bhutan (more details on these later) Giving a push to rural electrification, the power ministry has already reached one-third of its target to electrify 18,000 villages by 2018 also, as on date, there is not a single power plant which is without coal. Power transmission to the south was enhanced by 71 per cent in the current financial year (Source: Coal, power situation good: Piyush Goyal ) The growth of coal production in 2018-15 was 8.25 per cent and during April 2018 to February 2018, it was 9.2 per cent. The coal sector was paralysed in the aftermath of coalgate, with the Supreme Court having cancelled all coal mining allocations made by the UPA regime. It was estimated that peak hour shortages would exceed 15 per cent and India, despite holding some of the largest reserves of coal in the world, would suffer the ignominy of importing 250 million tonnes of coal in financial year 2018-15. An open and transparent bidding process for coal mines was his first success ( Economy Three Men Standing ). A negligible growth in coal production during the last four years of UPA II, when new generation capacity kept increasing, led to a serious crisis in the power sector stranded capacity, huge coal import at excessive cost, financial stress. Goyals biggest contribution is in setting right the coal production almost 10 per cent growth in the last two years. Our power generation capacity has crossed 2,80,000 mw In a record of sorts, 5,000 mw of solar power was actually installed in the calendar year 2018. Even more significant, the per unit cost has dropped from Rs 15 to around Rs 5. This has transformed renewable energy from the realm of fantasy to viability Goyal says that 25 new solar parks will be added in the country as part of the thrust on renewable sources of energy. He has set an ambitious target of 175 gigawatts (gw) of power from renewable sources 100 gw from solar, 60 gw from wind, 10 gw from biomass and 5 gw from hydroelectric power. Goyal is also working with Gadkari to push bio-fuels. These targets have to be seen against the background of India having a total installed capacity today of just 288 gw. Still not convinced Well you can track the progress of the actual implementation work by downloading the following app: GARV GRAMEEN VIDYUTIKARAN - Android Apps on Google Play Road Ministry approves over Rs 40,000 cr highway projects - roads being built per day almost 1.5 times the average for last decade Upfront land acquisition, approvals and larger proportion of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts have increased the interest of developers and contractors in road projects. This is reflected in the 69 per cent increase in project awards by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) during the first 8-month period in FY16 to 2,649 km from 1,572 km during the same period in FY15, notes an ICRA report The pace of highways construction (km per day) under UPA had dipped close to single digits (some claim it was as low as 2kms per day - though this is largely not verified) this is now up to 18 km a day. The minister aims to make it 21 km a day in the current fiscal ( Economy Three Men Standing ), with the ultimate goal of 30kms a day set by the end of NDA039s latest term ( Modi government sets target of 30km of highways a day - Times of India ) Pushing lazy bureaucrats seem to have produced results. An ICRA report released recently said the Indian road sector is showing signs of revival drawing on several policy measures announced by the government over the last 18 months. Long hindered by execution delays, project cancellations, stalled projects, loss of lender confidence, leveraged balance sheets of developers and sluggish traffic growth, the sector now appears to be on the path to regain its lost sheen, the report says. Uniform Account Number by EPFO (Employee039s Provident Fund Organization): This will be employee-centric with no need to go to the employer for PF transfer like earlier. Requirement of the built up area and capital conditions for FDI reduced to 20,000 square meters and USD 5 million respectively for development of smart cities: Inviting more private players and FDI will boost low-cost affordable housing segment (indications are that a formal Housing for all scheme is to be announced soon) Rs 4,000 cr set aside to increase flow of cheaper credit for affordable housing to the urban poorEWSLIG segment: National Housing Bank will allow more credit at cheaper rates. We are on the verge of becoming a coal surplus country furthermore, if you know about this sector, you039ll know about the situation in the coal belt where there039s literally a bed of fire below the ground because of the mining activities - Modi government is the first in so many decades to actually start working towards solving this issue Banks and savings - Jan Dhan: India had 35 people with a bank account, lowest among the BRICS, as compared to 87 of the US and 95 of Canada now holds the world record for most number of bank account opened What Suresh Prabhu is doing with the railways is something that should not even need any explanations if you are following the news Metros Make in India coaches Improvement of corridor congestion Improvement of railway stations Administrative changes All railway contracts through e-tendering (read online to see how this removes corruption) Partnering with Google for infrastructure upgradation etc. etc the list is endless KPMG Report - The railw ay sector in India has suffered from chronic under-investment and this has been a key reason for the decline in modal share of the Railways. The railway minister has therefore, very rightly, focused on increasing the capital expenditure in last years budget by 52 per cent compared to the year before. The minister has also brought in new sources of finance With Prabhus investment plans in motion, the Indian Railways is fast emerging as one of the biggest participants in the Make in India initiative. After the government allowed 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in railways, the ministry has awarded contracts to global giants General Electric and Alstom for setting up electric and diesel locomotive factories, with an investment of nearly Rs 40,000 crore Prabhu also plans to monetize various resources data in association with Google and real estate assets by commercial development above and around railway stations Importance of those hugely publicized and ridiculed foreign trips and policies: BJP Govt. convinced Saudi Arabia not to charge On-Time Delivery Premium charges on Crude Oil Young Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan amp External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj sealed the deal. Saved the country thousands of crores Increased strategic relationship with Vietnam and Vietnam has now agreed to give contract of Oil exploration to ONGC-Videsh Increase Oil Imports from Iran, despite the ban by USA. Iran agreed to sell in Indian Rupees and it saved our Forex, not just for now, but protected India from future currency fluctuations too. India also gets to build Chabahar port of Iran, encircling Pakistan. We will have exclusive access for our Naval ships in this port. Australia - despite Australia being a major supplier of Coal amp Uranium. NaMo was able to convince Tony Abbott and now Australia will supply Uranium for our energy production. Recent tie-up with Pentagon, Israel amp Japan on matters of national security and flow of information India approved the border road in the NorthEast and around India - China border India managed to bring back 4,500 Indians from War zone in Yemen and also brought foreign nationals of 41 different countries, which put Indias name onto the highest platform globally in conducting that rescue mission PM Narendra Modi specially talked to the new Saudi Arabian king Salman and told him to allow Indian Airforce planes to fly as Saudi Arabia was attacking on Yemen and Yemen skies was declared NO-FLY Zone: thanks to this we got an assured clear window of a few hours and guess who coordinated this Ajit Doval, Sushama Swaraj and Gen V K Singh - one of many incidences when these people have taken such steps Centre gave nod to defence projects worth Rs 80,000 crore - army and navy had complained of lack of arsenal last year (UPA-II) - India was not even in a position to last a 50-day war with any n eighbor, UPA was very happy to let it happen despite repeated demands from the armed forces multiple deals with the likes of US, Russia and others and the Make in India campaign have both helped ease out the situation (missiles already being produced choppers exported to other countries too) The government renegotiated Rafale fighter Jets deal with France personally and bought 36 Jets on ASAP basis. At better than rack rates. No middlemen, no commissions For the first time after 42 yrs Indian Prime Minister visited Canada not to attend some meeting but as a specific state visit, in a Bilateral deal, India was able convince to Canada to supply Uranium for Indias Nuclear reactors for next 5 years. He was able to convince France and now France will make Nuclear reactors with the latest technology in India, on MAKE IN INDIA efforts in collaboration with an Indian company as a partner India and Russia signed 16 agreements last year: Russia to help build 12 nuclear reactors But there are some negatives too: Handling of home affairs is pathetic to say the least. The best of organizations function properly when everyone within it sees the bigger picture the same way as their leader, but sadly there seems to be some sort of disconnect over here. Case in point: 0393000 condoms, 2000 liquor bottles at JNU039: BJP MLA Gyandev Ahuja is keeping count - No amount of good work done by the government can help remove the scars left behind by some of the statements these guys have been making in the past year or so. With all due respect to the mentally challenged, 039Retarded039 is the only word that comes to mind when you try to reason why someone from the ruling party would make such statements. These guys surely need a PR head who would control and take action against such acts of extreme buffoonery. Similar failures are there to be seen in the case of parliamentary affairs: call it arrogance of having won such a huge mandate or pure negligence of the power of a bruised and battered opposition, the only ones at the losing end of the battle inside our parliaments are us, the citizens of the country. Keep aside the money being wasted by such fruitless proceedings, important bills like GST have been stuck for such a long time and for all the ridiculous reasons. Granted that the opposition is behaving ideotically, but isn039t it Venkaiah Naidu039s job to ensure that the house functions properly for at least matters of such huge importance Non-performing assets: NPAs of public sector banks increased 17 per cent from Rs.2.27 lakh crore in March 2018 to Rs.2.73 lakh crore in December 2018, a carry-over from UPA-2. Public sector bank NPAs had increased 23 per cent in 2009-10 over the previous year. NPA growth rates of this magnitude can destabilise the banking system. Agreed that the downturn had already started earlier but recapitalisation of public sector banks should have started on more stringent terms and much earlier. Also, the 25,000 Cr allocated for the said recapitalisation may be woefully inadequate for public sector banks039 recapitalisation. For one . the stress on the bank balance sheets due to high amount of sticky assets and paucity of capital have clearly impacted banks ability to lend further, in particular to industries, which is critical to reboot the economy. This is a jolt to companies since bank funding constitutes the major source of funds to small and medium companies. In the March-October period of the current fiscal year, credit growth to industries has languished at negative 0.3 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the previous year. The worst hit has been medium-sized companies, where bank lending has contracted by 10.9 percent as against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the same period last year. Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) too warn that fresh investments in projects fell 74 percent in the December quarter to Rs 1.05 lakh crore from Rs 4.06 lakh crore in the corresponding period last year. This leaves the government to take the lead with continued higher spending even at the cost of breaching the fiscal deficit numbers The windfall gains from low oil prices have tremendously helped the Modi-government in the last one year to manage the import bill and inflation. But, a prolonged crash in oil prices would impact inward remittances and exports that have fallen for 13 consecutive months, which isnt good news for the economy. While the 2018 budget helped address a few of the issues listed above, it remains to be seen whether it is substantial enough to correct these. For now, let039s be hopeful They have set the ball rolling and there is a clear change in the thought process when it comes to actual on-ground implementation of work. Swachh Bharat: I personally had really high hopes from this initiative, as having visited and lived across multiple cities across the country, cleanliness was one common pain point everywhere. What seemed like a major push from the central government is slowly losing steam as days go by. All that this initiative has been reduced to now are a bunch of PR events by local MLAsMPs and then things go back to normal. With a steady increase in urban population and the amount of construction that is going around, initiatives like these need to be taken care of more seriously. To be honest, we, the citizens, are as much to be blamed for this as the central government. However, regulatory reforms in this direction (example: appropriate actions around construction areas etc.) need to kick-start now if we are to be able to sustain smart cities and other futuristic concepts in the long run. We chose this government for 5 years let us give him those 5 years and then take a call on whether we want him back. For now, all the signs are pointing to the fact that yes they are taking steps in the right direction these steps might not necessarily be popular or news-worthy in the short term, but theyve already started affecting us in a positive way. The biggest step Backend improvements in bureaucracy and administration no scams, timely actions against complaints, and saying bye bye to chalta hai attitude in those circles. I read this article which mentioned how the redressal rate has increased manifold - Department of Personnel amp Training (DoPT) amp Administrative Reforms amp Public Grievances (ARampPG) has disposed of as many as 4.87 lakh grievances out of a total of 6.09 lakh received with regard to Central Government Ministries and Departments during last one year. For us citizens, the best thing to do (if we really want to know how our country is doing), would be to stop watching channels like Times Now or getting our belief systems manipulated by Social media and maybe start reading stuff that really matters unbiased fact-based reportsarticles start with the likes of the economist or even the economic times. From a personal point of view, I see this government coming back to power in 2019 provided they do fulfill their 2 most important promises of electricity for all and making India a manufacturing hub, as both of these would have immense roll-over effects on other factors that are close to the heart of the common masses. We gave UPA 10 years even after a welcome break in 1998-99, lets give these guys the next 3-4 years and let them prove us rightwrong. PS: A small request to those who are sharing the post on social media - please do hit 039Upvote039 too (in case you genuinely feel that the answer was helpful) it would help promote the post across feeds, and when more Quorans get to see this, it might lead to a more healthy discussion on the topic. PPS: Disclaimer of sorts - I039m not a BJP supporter and have often ridiculed their management of home affairs (case in point: Nishant Prakash039s answer to What has Narendra Modi accomplished, and what has he lost, in 2018 ) but the work done by some of the ministries under this government is commendable and people should recognize that irrespective of their political allegianceprejudices. Peace 53.5k Views middot View Upvotes middot Not for Reproduction I would like to share couple of stories which happened when Namo came to power. 1. Incident happened way back in Oct amp Nov 2018 w. r.t. Indian Railways. Train was late by more than 3 hours on two occasions hence I filed TDR for both but to my surprise IRCTC declined the same without any reason. So I followed up with IRCTC via calls amp emails and what I heard back was that my request was against IRCTC039s TDR policy, Hence rejected. I downloaded the gazetted file again and went through it but didn039t find any policy against my claim, Hence asked them to point out the policy (read rule). But didn039t hear a word after that, Since there wasn039t any hierarchy in place like Nodal, Appellate etc. I sent a mail that I am moving to Consumer Court, to which I didn039t hear a word which clear shows How fearless IRCTC officials were. Then I contacted, Akosha for the same but they said that they can039t entertain any request against IRCTC. Then MODI govt. came into power. I tweeted to Railway Minister (then Sadandn Gowda) to create portal to settle grievance and He did but even after reporting the complaint nothing happened. Finally Suresh Prabhu sworn in as Railway Minister and He immediately sought suggestions to improve Indian Railways where I poured in with whatever I have. He sent Acknowledgement mail citing his email ID where I can put forward my feedback amp suggestions. So I grabbed this opportunity to report the grievance and to my surprise. He responded back in days time with the follow up procedure and not only that but added respective DRMs, DTM etc. in the mail list as If It was a corporate setup. After couple of days, I heard back from 039tdrprocess039 team that my TDR has been approved and amount will be refunded in 2-3 days. But again amount wasn039t refunded in 15days, Hence I dropped the mail to 039tdrprocess039 alongwith all DRMs, DTMs and kept Mr. Suresh Prabhu in bcc. Amount was refunded with 30mins for both the cases. This clearly proves how efficient, dedicated and hardworking ministry is in place. Best part is they listen to your queries no matter who you are. Edit 1: Added Email IDs 2. Got REFUND from Tikona with help of Mr. Rajyavardhan Rathore (MoS IampB) Yes you read it right, from Tikona. I opted for Tikona Broadband (one of the biggest blunders) because didn039t had other options. We had to pay 2months bill( activation charges) to activate the connection but on day 1, only realized that It isn039t gonna last. I ended up sending email citing 039low amp erratic speedquot as reason. Calling customer care was a headache as One has to wait for atleast 30mins in night amp 20mins during day in order to convey the issue which Customer rep won039t understand. So You will end up cursing yourself for wasting an hour and problem still unresolved. Overall I sent around 8 Emails and more than 6 calls in less than 2 weeks but nothing changed, Thus realized that only way out is change the service. Now REFUND comes into picture. I asked them about the procedure to which they replied No money will be refunded as next cycle has already started, 20days since activation. I asked them disconnect now and return the remaining quotun-usedquot amount which is a rational demand but they started citing policy. Me being quotintolerant to injusticequot couldn039t take it anymore. I decided to ask the right questions to right people. Thus tweeted to Tikona039s CEO Mr. Bajpai and kept Mr. Rathore in CC just like a corporate email. To me surprise, I got call from Tikona Mgmt. Desk in less than an hour, asking the reason of my grievance. I explained him in details the issues I faced with Internet service amp Customer Service. To which He sought some time to get back. I followed-up couple of times over Twitter, before I got final call from same guy, saying My demands has been approved. Now some may say what has Mr. Rathore done in this case, To which I say that He mayn039t have done anything directly but his presence in those tweets has made this happen hassle-free. 76.6k Views middot View Upvotes middot Not for Reproduction Dr. Shrikar Pardeshi, 2001 batch IAS officer of Maharashtra Cadre. National award winner for efforts of water conservation in Nanded district. Transferred several times for obvious reasons. In 2018, he took charge as the commissioner of Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation. Following court orders, he pulled down 487 unauthorized constructions and snapped water supply to 209 illegal connections. He also blocked sewerage lines of 171 illegal constructions. Implemented e-governance policy. Result: He was transferred in Feb 2018 before completion of his 2 years tenure, allegedly on behest of then deputy CM Ajit Pawar. He was so popular for his uncompromising work style, people came out on streets protesting the transfer. Took charge as chairman of PMPML, turned around the loss making public transport service provider to profit. Frequency of buses developing snags was brought down. Helpline like SARATHI (System of Assisting Residents and Tourists through Helpline Information) was implemented. People were happy that PMPML was in able hands. Overhaul was undergoing. In 2018, Dr. Shrikar Pardeshi was appointed as deputy secretary in PMO. First time in history an IAS officer of Maharashtra Cadre was directly appointed to PMO. And you know what, he will work directly under Mr. Modi. He was handpicked by PM himself because of his clean record and his attempts in successful implementation of several welfare schemes like SARATHI and all. Now if such class of officers are in the top brass of bureaucrats, don039t you think India is changing Edit. Many people came up with the famous case of IAS Ashok Khemka and how he was not getting relief from the current government after assaults from previous government. Well, I am glad to tell you, all charges against Mr. Khemka are dropped. Edit 2: Government of Haryana recently promoted Mr. Khemka to the post of principal secretary. A promotion overdue and much deserved. Edit 3. Guys, I have this amazing image to give some visual aid to your imagination about Mr. Pardeshi working with Mr. Prime Minister. Such an honour for any civil servant to work with prime servant. Haryana government promotes IAS officer Ashok Khemka to the post of principal secretary economictimes. indiatimes. 248.9k Views middot View Upvotes middot Not for Reproduction